Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 241532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
932 AM MDT Tue May 24 2022

.DISCUSSION...Upper level ridge over the region today will bring
warmer and drier conditions through Wednesday. Skies will remain
clear allowing temperatures to reach near normal today and about 10
degrees above normal on Wednesday. No significant weather is
expected until Thursday when the upper level trough destabilizes
the airmass for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be
addressed in the afternoon package. No updates needed at this


.AVIATION...VFR. High pressure generally expected other than
moisture moving generally north of the area. The northern system
could push an isolated shower into the central Idaho mountains, with
brief MVFR conditions. Surface winds: Northwest 5-15 kt with gusts
possible south and east of KBOI through KTWF this afternoon. Light
wind returns overnight. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: Northwest 25 to
35 kt.


SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level ridge
axis is moving toward the area, and will pass over us on
Wednesday. This will help keep us dry and give us a warming trend.
Wednesday night, a deep and strong upper level trough will
approach the coast and continue the warming trend, sending temps
around 15 degrees above normal. It will also increase moisture and
instability throughout the region. Thunderstorms are possible
Thursday afternoon and overnight, with some strong storms
possible. CAPE near 500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts will provide
suitable conditions for strong storms and even a few supercells.
Storms have a good chance of lasting past midnight due high
instability and the dynamics of the approaching trough.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The trough axis will move
through early Saturday. There will be enough moisture, especially
across the north, to keep showers in the forecast through the
weekend. Some moderate precipitation amounts are likely in the
mountains. Temperatures will cool down significantly Friday, back
down to near normal, and then cool a few more degrees each day
through Sunday. A closed low is forecast to follow the initial
trough, and should arrive Sunday into Sunday night. This will
bring another round of precipitation, including a chance for
thunderstorms. The low will move through Monday, but showers
behind the system could linger into Tuesday. Temperatures Monday
and Tuesday will show a warming trend, with readings back near
normal Tuesday.





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