272
FXUS65 KBOI 050919
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
319 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level
ridge will build into the region through the short term period,
bringing the hottest temperatures of the year. Today will be
clear, hot, and dry with some high clouds building in over
southeast Oregon by later this evening. Temperatures will be
about 15 degrees above normal with locations in the Lower
Treasure Valley reaching the upper 80s by the afternoon. Diurnal
winds will remain light and variable throughout most of the
region, with increasing westerly winds by the afternoon in the
Lower Snake Plain. Some mid-level moisture along with some
shifting southwest flow will bring a chance for thunderstorms
near the Nevada border on Thursday night. The High Resolution
Ensemble Forecast (HREF) gives about a 60% chance of a
thunderstorm over the border of Owyhee County, ID with Nevada.
Gusty winds are likely with any storms that form, especially
given the hot and dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The ridge will continue to
build over the region through the weekend, with the hottest
temperatures of the week expected to be on Saturday.
Temperatures will be about 20 degrees above normal, with highs
in the upper 90s in area valleys. Another pulse of mid level
moisture will allow for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in southeast Oregon and near the ID-NV border on
Friday night. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms
looks to be on Saturday into Sunday as the ridge leaves the
region and southwesterly flow with a preceding weak cold front
begins to make way into the area on Sunday morning. After
Sunday morning, significant model uncertainty persists for the
beginning of next week. Most of the cluster ensembles show the
ridge continuing into next week, while deterministic models
show zonal flow moving in and cooling temperatures down while
bringing a chance of precipitation. Regardless of the upper
level flow that is realized, temperatures will likely moderate
significantly compared to earlier in the week with a low chance
of high terrain showers on Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with increasing high level clouds this afternoon.
Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt through this morning,
then W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-30 kt across south-central
Idaho including the Magic Valley terminals by the afternoon. 10kft
MSL winds: W-SW 25-35 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mostly clear tonight, with some high clouds tomorrow
afternoon. Surface winds light and variable 6 kt or less,
becoming W-NW 10 kt or less by 05/18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA