Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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099 FXUS65 KBOU 231733 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1133 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through next week with mid 90s to low 100 readings across the plains and eastern I-25 corridor early next week. - Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday for the Denver Metro Area. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Satellite paints a fairly quiet picture across northeast Colorado this morning, with just a few cumulus clouds evident across the higher elevations. Temperatures are already warm across the region, with mid to upper 80s observed across the Denver metro. Forecast highs still get most of the plains/I-25 corridor into the mid/upper 90s later today. No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning. Only a few edits to the near term grids were needed to capture the diurnal warming trends, along with some minor PoP changes this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Skies are clear across the CWA this morning. Temperatures are still pretty warm for this time of day with 60s F over most of the plains. Models have the upper ridge right over Colorado today and tonight with 40-60 knot, zonal jet level flow. There is benign synoptic scale energy progged for the CWA the first two periods according to the QG Omega fields. In the lower levels, weak troughing is progged east of the mountains today with fairly normal diurnal wind patterns. For moisture, model precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 0.90 inch range today and tonight, with surface dew points progged in the mid 30s to lower 50s F. CAPE values are fairly low overall, with the highest CAPE over the mountains and eastern border. Pops will be low to none for update, and the storms that do develop will produce little rain just some virga driven outflow winds. The main weather story will be the heat. Today`s highs will be 2-4 C warmer than yesterday`s highs with readings in the 95-100 F range for most of the plains. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Upper level high will reside over the Central and Southern Rockies Monday and Tuesday. This will bring very warm to hot conditions to the region. Across northeast Colorado, highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with a few locations topping 100F degrees. On Monday, precipitable water values will be around a half inch over the higher terrain and three-quarters of an inch over the plains. This moisture combined with CAPE reaching 500 J/kg is expected to result in scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible with the convection. Any rainfall is expected to be brief and light. For Tuesday, airmass dries slightly. Also, there`s a weak northerly push during the day. This may lower temperatures a little, which will help stabilize the airmass. On Wednesday, the upper level high begins to slowly sink southward. Moisture increases across the area and is expected to result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, but likely fall a couple degrees due to the increase in moisture/clouds. An upper level trough traveling across the northern part of the country pushes the ridge southward on Thursday. Expected slight decrease in temperature, which puts highs in the lower to mid 90s. Decent moisture stays in place with precipitable water values around three-quarters of an inch over the higher terrain and just above an inch over the plains. Expect to see another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast becomes more unclear for Friday and next weekend. Westerly flow aloft is expected to prevail Friday around the base of an upper level trough passing north of Colorado. This system could trigger a round of showers and storms, if the best lift occurs during peak heating. For next weekend, the upper level high begins to reintensify and shift westward. Models generally agree the ridge stays off to the southeast with southwest flow aloft prevailing. This may bring an increase in subtropical moisture. It`s too soon to know how much moisture will advect northward. Will keep scattered/isolated PoPs in the forecast for next weekend. As far as temperatures go, cooler air behind Friday`s trough should make Saturday be the coolest (least warmest?) day. Though highs will still be close to 90F across northeast Colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain light and variable this afternoon. Still a very slight chance of a stray outflow boundary this afternoon, with a better chance by BJC. Typical drainage flow is likely overnight tonight. There is a better chance for outflow from high-based showers on Monday afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ040. && $$ UPDATE...Hiris SHORT TERM...RJK LONG TERM....Meier AVIATION...Hiris