292
FXUS65 KBOU 231642
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1042 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures return today.

- A dry cold front arrives tonight.

- Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant
  precipitation chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

It was a cool morning across the area with temperatures falling
into 40s over most of northeast Colorado. A few low lying area
dipped into the 30s. Temperatures are rebounding nicely under
sunny skies. Highs are still on track to reach the upper 70s to
lower 80s over northeast Colorado. High clouds increase late this
afternoon and into this evening as an upper level trough passes
to the northeast of Colorado. A weak cold front pushes south
across eastern Colorado tonight, bringing a wind shift to the
north and slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday. Current
forecast on track with no changes planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Ample amounts of dry air can be spotted on GOES-18 mid level water
vapor satellite imagery this morning. Mostly sunny skies will
occur over northeastern Colorado through this afternoon. As our
region transitions to an upper level ridge pattern, 700mb
temperature advection displays warm air across the forecast area.
Afternoon temperatures range from 71-82F for the urban corridor
and plains. Mountains and valleys increase between 51-65F this
afternoon. Cross sections indicate an increase of mid level
moisture this evening resulting in mostly cloudy skies overnight
tonight. Additionally, a cold front lacking precipitation will
arrive tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A persistent upper level ridge will dominate the entire long term
period, leading to a several day stretch of mostly sunny skies
and above normal temperatures across our forecast area.

Tuesday will more than likely be the "coolest" day of the work
week behind the weak/dry cold front. Still, that means
temperatures in the upper 70s across most of the plains. We`ll
start the day mostly cloudy, but there should be a gradual
decrease in cloud cover through the day leaving partly cloudy
skies by the evening.

The upper ridge will strengthen a bit by the middle of the week,
and should be pretty stationary, wedged in between an upper low to
our east and a broad trough axis over the West coast. There`s
little if any moisture aloft and sunny skies will prevail on
Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of
the week, but guidance has backed off a touch on temperatures -
still in the mid to upper 80s, but lower chances of breaking 90
again.

As we get into next weekend, the ridge should slowly break down,
with a slight increase in moisture. It doesn`t look like this will
contribute to much if any precipitation, though 90th percentile
QPF from the 00z ensembles do have a few hundredths across the
mountains on Friday.

The next hope at a trough or cold front may come as we get into
next week, but that`s too far out to have any hope. In the
meantime, we`ll just wait.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. This morning,
light northerly winds shift northeast by the afternoon. SCT to BKN
mid level cloud deck near 10k develop at all sites by late Monday
evening. A cold front will shift winds north between 06-08Z
overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...AD