Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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566 FXUS64 KBRO 260550 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The approach of an upper level trough is expected to also result in the development of a closed low over the Central Mississippi River Valley tonight. The forcing from this system should also support a cold front pushing through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late tonight and into tomorrow morning. With PWAT values over 1.5 inches and CAPE around 1000 J/kg, the environment ahead of the front is supportive of the development of showers and thunderstorms both ahead and along the cold front itself. With a good amount of shear and instability in the environment, some thunderstorms could be strong, and there is even a low chance of severe thunderstorms possible as well. SPC does have a marginal risk for northern Kenedy County, while keep the rest of the area in a general thunderstorm outlook. As for the temperatures, starting with the high temperatures for tomorrow, they are expected to be in the range of upper 80s to low 90s. Thanks to the passage of the previously mentioned cold front, the the temperatures will be lower than they have been recently. In addition the heat indices will also be much lower in the 90s as well for tomorrow. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be mostly in the 70s, meanwhile the for Thursday night, the lows are expected to be mostly in the 60s with a few places in the Lower Rio Grande Valley in the low 70s. Finally, the swell from Hurricane Helene is expected to arrive tomorrow along the Lower Texas Coast. This will likely lead to a higher risk of rip currents and some minor coastal flooding at area beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A midlevel low over the Mississippi Valley will ingest the remnants of Hurricane Helene before slowly lifting to the northeast this weekend and into next week. At the same time high pressure over the Desert Southwest into the Great Lakes will and slowly expand into Deep South Texas through next week. At the surface, high pressure will dominate in wake of a cold front that moves through tomorrow morning. This will allow for much drier air to filter into the region on Friday, leading to dry conditions through the weekend. Moisture begins to return by midweek, with chances for rain along the seabreeze returning. Along the coast, long period swell from Helene will result in increased wave heights and adverse beach conditions on Friday. Enhanced rip current risk and minor coastal flooding will be possible at beaches along the Lower Texas Coast. As for temperatures, near normal temperatures will prevail through the period, and along with lower humidity and dewpoints will feel much more pleasant than previous weeks. Heat indices will remain below 100 degrees through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving south, and expected to move through MFE before sunrise. Conditions at MFE may briefly fall to MVFR levels as the storms move through. Gusty winds are expected to pick up out of the north this afternoon before becoming light and variable again this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tonight through Tuesday Night...While mostly favorable conditions are expected for tonight with light to moderate onshore flow and low to moderate seas are expected for tonight. Swells from Hurricane Helene and winds picking up after a cold frontal passage tomorrow are likely to bring adverse conditions to the Lower Texas Coast, thus Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will be likely needed for Thursday. Small Craft Advisories for the Gulf waters might also be needed as well due to the larger wave heights. Friday through Monday...Swell from Helene will lead to elevated seas on the Gulf waters for Friday into early Saturday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the Gulf waters Thursday and Friday as wave heights look to reach 6-7 feet. Seas are expected to subside over the weekend, with favorable marine conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 71 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 93 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 87 76 87 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 88 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through late Friday night for TXZ451-454-455. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...60-BE