Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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993 FXUS64 KBRO 240533 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The major player for the short term forecast will the elongated mid- level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With the subsidence in place over the area brining dry and stable air, the environment will not be favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms during the short term period. Although there is a bit of recovery for the PWAT values during the day tomorrow, the best chance for any rainfall will be along with the sea breeze in the afternoon. Even then, the rain chances are expected to be isolated at best. With the greatest chances occurring along the coast. As for temperatures, the highs temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be around the mid 90s. The heat indices are expected to be a little higher around 105 to 107. This is still below the criteria for a Special Weather Statement for elevated heat indices and Heat Advisory. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow are expected to be in the 70s. Lastly, while the rip current risk is low for the short term forecast period. Wave run up along the beaches could reduce the available beach space down. While not expecting to need Coastal Flood Advisory at this point. Further shifts will have to keep an eye to see if a Coastal Flood Statement might be needed around high tides. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 By Wednesday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine should strengthen to a tropical depression or storm as it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level trough/low over the Central Plains will translate east and send a cold front southward. Unsettled weather is expected on Wednesday as the boundary approaches Deep South Texas and encounters modest instability and high moisture content. Precipitable water values are expected to approach 1.9 to 2.0 inches by Wednesday afternoon along the immediate coast, which is where the highest PoPs will reside. Low precipitation chances will linger Wednesday night into Thursday, but the arrival of a slightly drier airmass should bring rain chances to an end region wide by Thursday afternoon. While noticeably cooler temperatures are not expected with the passage of the cold front, lower dew points and humidity will result in lower heat indices Thursday afternoon, with heat indices mostly in the mid 90s. Meanwhile, along the Lower Texas beaches and Gulf waters, the passage of the cold front and the increased swells from the tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will result in increased wave heights. This will lead to an increased risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding along the lower Texas beaches Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Light winds and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 24 hours with generally light easterly winds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late this morning into the afternoon from east to west along a sea breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Tonight through Tuesday Night...Mostly favorable conditions thanks to a weak pressure gradient allowing for light to moderate onshore flow and low to moderate seas. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period and could result in locally elevated winds and seas. Wednesday through next Monday...Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through Wednesday night, but will deteriorate beginning Thursday due to an approaching cold front and increasing swell associated with a tropical system in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through the end of the week, before favorable conditions return over the weekend and into early next week. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday may result in locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 90 74 90 / 30 50 20 20 HARLINGEN 73 91 71 91 / 20 50 10 20 MCALLEN 77 94 74 94 / 20 40 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 72 92 / 20 40 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 78 87 / 40 40 30 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 89 73 88 / 30 40 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...63-KC