Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
281 FXUS61 KBTV 191744 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 144 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous heat and humidity across the region today into Thursday. Highs in the 90s will combine with humid conditions to create heat index values up to 105. Please be sure to take appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress through the remainder of this week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again today, but greater chances for showers and thunderstorms, a few possibly severe, arrive Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...Minor updates to the forecast, mainly to tweak chances of precipitation, as showers and thunderstorms are slightly more widespread and intense than initially expected. Previous discussion below: Previous discussion...Morning temperatures around the Burlington Airport only dropped to right around 80 degrees (warmer than our average daily maximum temperature), which could be a daily record warmest minimum temperature if BTV doesn`t drop further this evening. As such, we are starting quite warm with some mid clouds. Once the clouds break, heating will rapidly increase with dangerously hot conditions returning. Showers and thunderstorms are already forming this morning being kicked off by a mid level disturbance left over from yesterday`s thunderstorms. With the heat, instability, and a triggering mechanism, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms; have a plan for thunderstorms today. Elevated instability is evident across portions of southern Canada and could kick off an isolated shower or thunderstorm this morning across the North Country. Best chances will be 9am-2pm across central Vermont and the Adirondacks. Thunderstorm chances will be 10-20% in this time frame with ridging aloft potentially being the foil for sustained convective activity. Should something get going, damaging winds will be possible as well as localized heavy rainfall. Heat remains the main focus through Thursday with dangerously hot conditions continuing. Some locations could possibly not dip below 77 this morning resulting in an incredibly warm start. A rapid heat-up is expected again with potential for slightly higher humidity. Dew points in the mid 70s are expected and could briefly push portions of Addison/Rutland/Chittenden County to a 105 heat index; today will be the hottest day. Clouds and showers could be the foil if convection gets going however. Another warm night is ahead with continued heat for Thursday. For Thursday, conditions will warm early, but shear aloft from an approaching front will likely begin some marginal cooling for northern locations towards the Canadian border. The front poses another concern with shower chances increasing north to south. With additional forcing, increasing wind shear, and oppressive heat, marginal to slight (5-15%) chances of severe thunderstorms are expected. Unlike yesterday and today, this will be a stronger trigger for convection supported by height falls and cooling aloft. Damaging winds will be the primary threat from any storms. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Wednesday...The cold front will still be over southern Vermont on Friday and it looks to take long enough to drop to the south that some instability will be able to develop. With forcing from the front and more shear, some isolated severe storms are still possible. However, they look less widespread than Thursday. There is still some model disagreement on the timing of the frontal passage so if it passes earlier in the day, that will keep the severe threat to the south. There should be a break in the precipitation Friday night as high pressure is briefly able to build into the region from Canada. It should also be able drop dew points into the 50s in northern areas though they will be stuck in the 60s in southern areas. Lows Friday night will be in the 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Wednesday...The front looks to push back north into the region on Saturday, and it will bring some showers and possible thunderstorms. However enough colder air will be able to drain down from the north at the surface that it will keep the lower atmosphere stable and any instability will be elevated. This will prevent a severe threat. The front looks to stall over the region and showers are possible into Sunday. A low pressure system moves through Sunday into Sunday night and it will cause more widespread rainfall. PWATs will increase back close to 2 inches for Sunday so areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. After the low moves out, a warming trend will occur, though temperatures will not approach the levels of this week. Dew points look to stay in the 60s for much of the period so while it will not be as humid as this week, it won`t feel very refreshing either. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Thunderstorms are becoming more widespread than initially anticipated across the forecast area this afternoon, impacting several TAF sites with rain, including visibilities less than 3 miles at times, gusty winds, and lightning. We will be monitoring this an issuing amendments as needed. For now, most sites have VCTS or a TEMPO group detailing gusty south/southwesterly winds up to around 30 knots and IFR visibilities. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate overnight tonight as winds decrease and calm, turning focus to the potential for some fog or mist at select sites, particularly SLK, MPV, and EFK. While temperatures aren`t expected to drop dramatically overnight, an appreciable amount of moisture is present in the lower atmosphere that could cause lowered visibilities and even potentially low ceilings. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken. Record High Temperatures: June 19: KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 94 KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 91 KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 90 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 91 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 88 June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 92 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 90 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 87 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 85 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 83 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 19: KBTV: 78/1923 Forecast 77 KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 74 June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 71 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 65 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001>011-016>021. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Storm SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Storm CLIMATE...Team BTV