390
FXUS61 KBTV 161806
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
206 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After morning fog burns off, temperatures warm well above
seasonal averages with potential for eclipsing daily high
records at a few locations. Chances for isolated to scattered
rainfall return for the second half of this week before high
pressure builds back over the North Country by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 206 PM EDT Monday...Only minor changes needed with the
afternoon update. Dew points are not lowering as much as
forecast so far in the early afternoon, and a fairly flat
cumulus field is rather widespread across the higher terrain.
Have added cloud cover to elevations at or above 1500 feet based
on these observations. Temperatures range from the mid 70s to
low 80s, largely on track with a few more degrees to climb as we
approach our highs for the day.

Previous Discussion...Today will likely be the warmest day of
the with high pressure centered over the North Country. Slow
modification of the airmass, cyclical drying and further
warming, has resulted in high temperatures well above seasonal
averages with broader valleys expected to reach the mid/upper
80s as 925mb temperatures climb to around 20C. Kept the idea
that some high clouds could increase for Tuesday, but some
models are slowing the northward progression; the result will be
slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Otherwise, position of the high and 925mb temperatures will be
similar to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The remnants of potential tropical cyclone eight will move up the
Eastern Seaboard and toward the region on Wednesday. Any rain will
stay to the south, but it will bring a deck of high and mid level
clouds. This low, and a high pressure building to the east, will
help cause more organized southeast flow and advect a cooler
maritime airmass into the region, particularly east of the Greens.
The combination of the cloud cover and the cooler airmass will cause
highs to be slightly lower than the previous few days. Temperatures
will reach the upper 70s to the mid 80s, still well above
climatological normals though. The clouds should still be high and
thin enough Wednesday morning that there looks to be efficient
radiational cooling and valley fog in the climatologically favored
areas. Lows will be in the 50s for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The remnants of potential tropical cyclone eight will try to make
their way into the region for Thursday and Friday. However, as they
move north, they will be running into an area of high pressure
trying to build south from Canada. The exact placement of the high
will determine how far north the showers will be able to reach. Some
guidance, including the operational GFS, is now trying to have the
low fall apart and form a secondary low off the New England Coast.
This would keep any precipitation south of the region. Looking at
the ensembles, the current most likely solution is that there would
be a couple showers across southern and central areas on Thursday
while the northern areas would remain mostly dry. Therefore,
continued slight chance PoPs in central and southern for that time
frame. Ensemble guidance has come into more agreement in keeping the
moisture a little farther south than previously, and shows high
probabilities of northern areas staying dry on Thursday. A backdoor
cold front will pass through on Friday and it could bring a few
showers to northern areas. The EC and Canadian ensembles have mostly
joined the GEFS in giving greater than a 50 percent chance of
measurable rain across parts of the northern areas. However, a dry
airmass during the time of the frontal passage and weak forcing will
minimize the rain. Therefore, increased the PoPs in some of these
areas to a more widespread slight chance. This front will lead to a
drier and cooler weekend, though temperatures still look to stay
above climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern continues with
terrain driven winds and nocturnal fog development. Expect
another round of VLIFR conditions due to fog at MPV and SLK,
with MSS also likely periodic fog given persistence. Humidity
levels are somewhat higher than yesterday, which should support
greater chances of fog at EFK, but for now have BR until
confidence increases. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue
with light wind.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd/Kutikoff