503
FXUS61 KBTV 071730
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed upper low will bring showers to the region today, with some
embedded thunderstorms possible. Unsettled and cooler weather
continues through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less
numerous early next week and a warming temperature trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the region this early afternoon, with
the strongest cores located in the Champlain Valley and several
reports of pea to dime/penny size hail in abundance. The
forecast for the rest of the afternoon remains on track with
this activity continuing to slowly drift eastward through VT
with small hail and frequent lightning the main threats through
sunset before storms diminish in coverage for the overnight
hours.

Quieter conditions with a few showers here and there is expected
tonight, but additional diurnally driven showers are likely on
Saturday. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler, with
highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Additional shortwave energy rounding base
of upper level trough still over our region will bring more chances
for showers on both Saturday night and Sunday. This far out it`s a
bit difficult to time the shortwaves passing through, but don`t
expect both of these periods to be total washouts. Models did trend
wetter for Sunday though, so did bump up pops accordingly. Low
temperatures on Saturday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
and high temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower
70s. These daytime highs are a bit cool for early June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Weather will remain unsettled headed into
the long term portion of the forecast. Chance of showers will
continue for Sunday night and Monday with upper level trough finally
pulling away from our region headed into Monday night. From Tuesday
onward the GFS and ECMWF lack much continuity between the two
models, leading to lower confidence in the forecast. GFS depicts
another system impacting the north country on Wednesday while the
ECMWF does not have this system at all. At this time looks like
temperatures will trend back towards above normal levels towards the
end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty in the extended, and I`m
sure we`ll get a better idea as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday... VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the period with afternoon/evening thunderstorms
providing brief periods of MVFR/IFR vsby. Overnight low clouds
are possible at KMPV/KSLK/KMSS, but confidence is low on how low
the ceilings are. MVFR is the forecast for now, but the
potential exists for IFR, especially at KSLK. VFR and isolated
to scattered showers return after sunrise Saturday. Winds will
generally be SSW less than 10kts through the period, with
local gusts up to 18kt at KBTV this afternoon and through the
period at KSLK.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff