926
FXUS61 KBUF 231046
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of warm and humid weather today, though a cold front
will slide across the area this afternoon with fairly widespread
showers and drenching thunderstorms. In the wake of the front,
cooler and less humid air will spread across the area for the start
of the new work week, though this break will be brief. A roller
coaster in temperatures for the rest of the week as warm weather
will then return Tuesday and Wednesday before dipping back down
later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently across western and north central New York, a stationary
front lies from west to east across the southern shoreline of Lake
Ontario. Radar imagery is depicting showers and thunderstorms to the
north of this boundary across southern Canada. To the south, dry
weather prevails.

As this morning progresses, the frontal boundary will gradually
advance northward as the surface low over the central Great Lakes
strengthens. Overall this will continue to support plenty of warm
air advection across the area (as seen by warm temperatures across
the ASOS sites early this morning,places across WNY in the low 80s
and mid to upper 70s across the North Country ).

While the North Country has seen plenty of active weather so far
this morning, more active weather is expected throughout the day
today, especially during the midday and afternoon. A potent upper
level shortwave and associated deepening surface low trekking across
the central Great Lakes along the Canadian and United States border.
A pre-frontal trough will slide across the area from west to east
starting mid morning across WNY. This will then be followed by the
cold front later this afternoon. All of this being said, two rounds
of convection will be quite plausible today.

The first round of convection will occur with the pre-frontal
trough, with the second round coming ahead of the cold frontal
passage this afternoon. Looking further into the details,
instability will be present with surface based CAPE forecast values
to peak around 2000 J/kg, especially this afternoon. Additionally,
shear profiles will become favorable with approximately 40 to 50
knots of effective shear, especially east of the Genesee Valley.
These factors combined, are reason that SPC has maintained a Slight
Risk for severe weather across much of western and north central New
York, highlighting the areas inland from the lakes. Main threats
today will be damaging winds, with a lesser threat for large hail.
An isolated can`t be ruled out either. Additionally, there is the
potential for heavy rain provided the amount of moisture content in
the atmosphere. On the bright side, the convection should be
tracking at a quick enough pace that the flash flooding threat will
be more limited.

The convection will continue into the early evening hours tonight as
the surface cold front exits east of the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Additionally, just to the north of the New York
State/Canadian border will lie a surface low. A passing shortwave
trough aloft tonight will support scattered showers to continue
across western and north central New York with the best chances
lying closer to the surface low across the North Country. In the
wake of the front tonight, sleeping conditions will be much improved
as humidity and temperatures drop. Lows tonight will range in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent mid-level shortwave and associated sfc low is advertised to
pass through the St. Lawrence Valley Monday morning. Given that
there will be some lingering moisture and lift from the passing
trough, showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through Monday afternoon. Some gusty NNW winds will also be possible
on Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the passage of the
trough. Otherwise...the best part will be the relief from the
oppressive heat and humidity this past week. Highs on Monday will be
a solid 10F to 15F cooler areawide with low to mid 70s across the
region.

High pressure begins to build in at all levels Monday evening which
will bring an end to any lingering showers. All indications are that
dry weather will `likely` persist into the day Tuesday. A warm front
does approach the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening. We
might see a shower or an isolated thunderstorm by Tuesday night. A
better chance for showers and storms arrives by Wednesday as a cold
front nears the Lower Lakes.

After a brief cool down, summer warmth and humidity makes a returns
Tuesday and last into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the
upper 70s to low/mid 80s. A few degrees warmer Wednesday with most
locales found in the 80s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and northcentral
NY for the latter part of the work week. This should result in
mainly dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs low to mid 70s
Thursday, then tacking on several degrees for Friday as airmass
starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area. Dew
points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late
June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances then
look to return as we head toward the first half of next weekend as
the next frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Despite the showers and few rumbles of thunder across the North
Country earlier this morning, all TAF sites remain VFR. These VFR
conditions won`t last long as today will be VERY active with showers
and thunderstorms due to a cold front crossing the area from west to
east. Along and behind the frontal boundary, CIGS will drop off to
IFR and MVFR, generally taking place after 15Z this morning.

MVFR and IFR conditions will continue into the first portion of the
evening hours as showers and thunderstorms taper off from west to
east. Then LIFR and IFR CIGS will form late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action will continue for the next
couple of hours on Lake Ontario. However, this is not the case for
Lake Erie as a cold front approaches the region, increasing
southwest winds and bringing Small Craft Advisories. Additionally
today, a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
crossing both Lakes, which will also bring the potential for locally
strong winds and waves.

In the wake of the front this afternoon and evening, a shift from
southwesterly to northerly flow will support continued choppy
conditions to the lakes, bringing a round of Small Craft Advisory
conditions to Lake Ontario Monday.

High pressure builds in across both lakes Monday and lasts through
Tuesday, diminishing winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
         Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM
         EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ