931
FXUS61 KCAR 150558
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
158 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today into Wednesday.
Low pressure will cross the region Thursday, followed by
another cold front on Friday. High pressure returns on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be in control of the weather across Northern
and Eastern Maine in the Near-Term period. This will result in
mostly sunny skies during the day and mostly clear skies
tonight. 850mb temperatures of 16-17C today support highs well
into the 80s for inland locations. Some of the warmest spots
along and southeast of Interstate 95 could reach 90 degrees.
With dew point temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, heat index
values should stay just below heat advisory criteria everywhere.
Southwest winds will cool off the immediate coast, resulting in
highs in the 70s there.

Weak upper-level energy will pass through central and northern
areas this afternoon. This could touch off an isolated shower or
two from the Central Highlands northward. Most places will stay
dry, but still believe the CAM guidance is handling the
situation better than the NBM. A rumble or two of thunder will
be possible over the Crown of Maine. The threat of any showers
or thunderstorms will quickly end this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Enough radiational cooling is expected north of
Katahdin to allow lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Generally mid 60s for lows tonight elsewhere, except at the
coast where lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Hotter and more humid conditions for Wednesday, as 850mb
temperatures rise to 18-19C. Many inland lower elevation
locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees. Dew points will rise
to near 70 degrees from around Dover-Foxcroft and Lincoln
southward. Heat advisories may be needed for these area
southward to Bangor for Wednesday afternoon. However, not enough
confidence to issue at this time due to borderline values.
Further north, dew points will be in the mid 60s, which will
limit heat index temperatures there. Southerly winds will keep
Coastal Downeast cooler. Expect 60s and 70s at the immediate
coast and outer islands, with lower 80s closer to Route 1. An
approaching cold front could bring isolated showers or
thunderstorms in the afternoon over the Crown of Maine. However,
the warm air aloft will likely limit the threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warm temperatures will continue into the night Wednesday night,
with low temperatures only falling to into the mid to upper 60s
across much of the forecast area. These warm temperatures, along
with elevated dewpoints in the 60s, will not offer much relief
from the heat of the previous day.

On Thursday, a shortwave supported by the right entrance region
of a jet streak positioned north of the St. Lawrence River, will
bring the next round of showers and storms to the forecast area.
The heat that will have settled over the region will aid in
providing instability, with plenty of southerly moisture
advection persisting into the area. PWATs will be abnormally
high, lifting into the 1.3 inch range by 12z Thursday which is
around the 90th percentile for the area, and then rising
further towards 2 inches by 00z Friday, which well exceeds the
90th percentile for northern Maine. Any stronger showers or
storms could easily tap into this high moisture content,
resulting in the threat for moderate to heavy rainfall, and the
chance for localized flooding, particularly in any poor drainage
areas.

The greatest threat for thunderstorms on Thursday will be across
the northern half of the forecast area, closer to the synoptic
forcing from the jet streak dynamics to the north as well as an
approaching cold front, still off to the west at this time.
Additionally, a sea breeze is likely given the southerly flow
ahead of this shortwave, which will bring more stable conditions
into the Interior Downeast region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front from the west will enter the forecast area early
Friday morning and quickly swing through the area through the
day. With frontal passage expected through the north by mid
morning on Friday, the chance for any stronger storms in the
north is low. However, the front will continue to push into the
Downeast region through Friday afternoon, which will line up
better with peak diurnal heating and could result in a few
thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. Elevated
moisture levels remain ahead of the front, and so there could
still be areas of moderate to heavy rainfall with the frontal
passage into Friday afternoon. However, a drier air mass is
moving in behind the front, and will quickly end the threat of
heavier rain after the boundary moves through.

High pressure should return through the day on Saturday, with
drier weather and more seasonable temperatures as highs lift to
around 80 throughout the forecast area. The next system will
approach from the west on Sunday, though the recent model trends
from the 00z GFS and CMC both have shifted towards a slow moving
front from the north draping into the area instead of a low
pressure tracking across the center of the state. Uncertainty
still remains at this time on how this next low pressure system
will evolve, and how widespread or isolated rain chances may be
heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR...Mainly IFR/LIFR through 11-12z with low cigs. Then,
mainly VFR through today, tonight, and Wednesday. PROB30 of TSRA
around 18-22z. Isolated TS possible again Wednesday PM. W winds
5-10 kts today. Light and variable winds tonight. SW winds 5-15
kts Wednesday.

KPQI...VFR/MVFR through 10-12z with occasional low cigs. Then
mainly VFR through today, tonight, and Wednesday. VCSH possible
this PM and Wednesday PM. Isolated TS possible as well, but not
enough confidence to include in 06z TAFs. W winds 5-10 kts
today. Light and variable winds tonight. SW winds 5-15 kts
Wednesday.

KHUL...Mainly IFR through 10-12z with low cigs. Then mainly VFR
today, tonight, and Wednesday. W winds 5-10 kts today. Light
and variable winds tonight. SW winds 5-15 kts Wednesday.

KBGR/KBHB...Mainly LIFR through 12z with low cigs and BCFG.
Improving to VFR by around 14z. IFR/LIFR possible again tonight
with low cigs and BCFG, mainly at KBHB. W winds 5-10 kts today.
Light and variable winds tonight. SW winds 5-15 kts Wednesday.


SHORT TERM:
Wed night: Generally VFR across the north, trending towards MVFR
late. MVFR/IFR at Downeast terminals, potentially LIFR, in FG
overnight. Winds light and variable.

Thurs: All sites trending towards low end VFR to MVFR as rain
moves in from the north. Thunderstorms possible, mainly at
northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thurs night: MVFR/IFR over most terminals, with FG possible
along with lingering rain showers. Light S winds may begin to
shift NW late at FVE/far northern terminals behind frontal
passage. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri: MVFR/IFR early, quickly lifting to VFR behind frontal
passage from north to south. Winds shifting NW 5 to 10 kts with
gusts to 20 kts. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri night - Sat: VFR across all terminals with SKC. Winds light
and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft
Advisory criteria today through Wednesday. Wave heights will be
around 1-2 feet, with southwest to south winds 5-10 kts. Fog
will reduce visibility on the waters, especially during the
nighttime hours.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the end of the week and into this
weekend. Fog may reduce visibility over the waters Wednesday
night through Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Clark/AStrauser
Marine...Clark/AStrauser