097
FXUS61 KCAR 271027
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
627 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crossing the area early this morning will continue
southeast to a position over Nova Scotia late today. High
pressure will build down from the north on Saturday, crest over
the area Saturday night and remain over the region Sunday into
Monday. High pressure will slide east of the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:25 AM Update...Some showers are scattered across the north,
and will likely continue to pivot through the north into mid-
morning as the upper low tracks over. Carried scattered showers
a bit later into the morning to cover these showers and raised
temps a degree or two across the area early this morning with
the clouds and moisture preventing much cooling.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be crossing Northern
Maine from northwest to southeast early this morning. Some
showers will accompany the low and may be most concentrated
right under the upper low early this morning across the north.
Low pressure will continue southeast today toward Nova Scotia.
Southern areas will have partial clearing this afternoon while
the north remains mostly cloudy with spotty showers in the
moisture wrapping back around the low.

Tonight will turn out partly to mostly clear across the south
while the north remains mostly cloudy in some wrap around
moisture behind the departing low. Winds will become light and
possibly calm late tonight as high pressure from the north
begins to ridge over the area. This may allow patchy fog to
form over the wet ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low pressure system will move to the east on Saturday. Some
remaining wrap around moisture is expected to produce some rain
showers in the north, most likely in the form of light rain or
drizzle. By the afternoon, the rain showers should move out of
the area. For the south, expect clearing skies and decreasing
winds as high pressure moves in. Temps should be in the low 60s.
By Saturday night, high pressure should settle in. 00Z guidance
shows some high clouds sitting over the region, holding temps
in the upper 40s for the night. Calm winds and cool temps should
produce some patchy fog.

By Sunday, high pressure to the north of the Great Lakes and
high pressure moving over the Gulf of Maine should pipe in
warmer temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Sunday night,
expected clearing skies with temps in the upper 40s and patchy
fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Early next week is expected to be fairly inactive with the high
pressure in place. By Monday night, temps could reach towards
frost levels, though the NBM has increased temps this last
update. Decided to stick with the NBM and will reassess with the
next package. A cold front is expected to reach the area by
Wednesday, however, extend models are still inconsistent with
the timing of the front. The amount of rain and the track will
depend on the track of Helene out to sea. Nevertheless, the
boundary should exit by the end of the week. Temps should be
near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR conditions over the north will improve to IFR
then MVFR this morning and remain MVFR this afternoon into
tonight. IFR conditions over the south will improve to MVFR this
morning then VFR this afternoon and remain VFR tonight. Winds
light northerly today into tonight, possibly becoming calm in
some northern valleys late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sat: Mostly VFR. Brief -SHRA possible across
northern terminals. N wind. Winds light and variable.

Sat night...VFR conditions across all terminals, though brief
IFR vis possible in patchy fog at any terminals which see rain
on Sat. Winds light and variable.

Sun - Tues: VFR across all terminals. Winds NW around 5 kts,
shifting SE by Tues 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA today and
tonight. Seas 3 to 4 ft today, dropping to 2 ft tonight. Vsby
should be good today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA criteria
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Fog could
limit visibility Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash
Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash