031
FXUS61 KCAR 201958
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
358 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the area this evening and will be
followed by high pressure on Friday. Low pressure will approach
on Saturday and track north of our area Sunday. A cold front
will cross the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front is making good progress southward with less humid
air already in northern Aroostook County and spreading south.
The frontal boundary will focus convection through the evening.
Between storms reaching above 40k ft, strong updrafts, and an
inverted V, damaging winds are a big concern moving into
southern Penobscot County and Hancock County where a favorable
SBCAPE environment exists. Values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are
currently measured in these areas.

In coordination with SPC and GYX, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
was issued for northern Somerset County, Piscataquis County,
Penobscot County and Hancock County. Also expect some storms to
move over the coastal waters off Hancock County. Northern
portions of Penobscot and Piscataquis have little threat due to
the frontal position. In fact, have removed thunderstorms from
the forecast for the northern half of the CWA.

Besides damaging winds late this afternoon towards Bangor and
Ellsworth, the other concern is the potential for heavy
convective rain this evening towards southern Penobscot County
and Hancock County as the front slowly traverses that area and
multiple storms train across the area. Some guidance suggests
that several inches of rainfall could fall within a few hours
this evening. WPC has included this area in the latest ERO
update.

The front exits off the coast later tonight. Still looking for
cooler temperatures and lower dew points to advect southward
tonight into Friday, but did bump up Friday highs slightly with
some low 80s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday Night and Saturday...
Zonal WNW flow over the area with a strengthening WNW/ESE
oriented front positioned just south of our forecast area.
Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies Fri night/Sat Downeast, but partly
cloudy skies north. Also a chance of rain over southern portions
of the area with likely dry conditions in the north. Area will
be under a stable airmass on the north (cool) side of the
front, and don`t expect any thunderstorms. Some fog near the
coast.

Saturday Night...
The front to our south begins to creep north and close to
Downeast as a warm front, and expect increasing rain chances
from south to north as this occurs. Still expect the more
significant rain toward Sunday though.

Sunday...
As an upper trough approaches from the west, the warm front
extending east from an approaching surface low around Ottawa
continues to pivot north. Still some uncertainty on the frontal
positioning, but it appears the heavier rainfall will be over
Northern Maine just north of the warm front where good
overrunning will be occurring. Good shot that areas with the
best overrunning just north of the front could exceed an inch of
rain during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. Chance of
storms late in the day, best chance Downeast, in the warm sector
south of the warm front advancing north.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure looks to track east across either Northern
Maine or just north of us Sun night/Mon, with a cold front
moving through around late Monday. Still a good amount of
uncertainty on how exactly things evolve, but looks like wet,
unsettled conditions Sun night/Mon with potential for
thunderstorms as well.

Looking for a bit of a break around Tuesday, but the next cold
front with shower/thunderstorm potential looks on track for
Wed/Thu. Still about 24 hours of timing uncertainty for this
Wed/Thu system.

Temperatures Sun night to Thu generally near or a bit warmer
than average.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with light NW winds. Thunderstorms can be
expected at BHB and BGR this evening with very gusty NW winds
and temporary LIFR vis.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night and Saturday... VFR north. MVFR possibly developing
Downeast late Friday night into Saturday with potential for
light rain. Possible IFR or worse in low clouds and fog along
coast, including BHB late Fri night into Sat. Light winds
becoming S 5-10 kts Sat.

Saturday Night...IFR likely Downeast, including BHB/BGR, esp
after midnight. Generally VFR from HUL north. S wind 5 kts.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly MVR, with periods of IFR, with
rain and low clouds. Potential of storms Downeast Sunday and
areawide Monday. S winds around 10 kts.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Winds becoming NW around 10 kts, with
conditions gradually improving to mostly VFR for Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms are the primary threat through later
tonight along a slow-moving cold front. Winds will shift to
northwest later this evening, and eventually to northeast by
Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: Small craft level seas appear likely Sun night to
Tue morning, with the potential for small craft level winds as
well.
&&

.CLIMATE...


June 20th High Temperature Records (F):
(Observed so far)

Caribou (90) 93 in 2020
Bangor (97) 95 in 2020
Millinocket (94) 96 in 2020
Houlton (91) 94 in 2020


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ011-030>032.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ015>017-029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...MCW/Foisy
Marine...MCW/Foisy
Climate...MCW/Foisy