045
FXUS61 KCAR 240734
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
334 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build in
from the northwest tonight...crest over the area Saturday...then
slide east of the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach
Sunday night and track northwest of the area Monday into
Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mostly clear skies are present over most of the area early this
morning. Fog and low clouds have developed over Downeast with
some areas experiencing locally dense fog. Have issued an SPS
for locally dense fog as it does not appear to be widespread
enuf for a Dense Fog Advisory.

Secondary cold front located over srn Quebec into srn Ontario
with showers occurring along it, in combination with H5 cold
pool. Expect showers to move into nrn areas after 14z with total
rainfall averaging around 0.10 inches north of I95.

Clouds will increase under 500mb trof/cold pool and temps will
rise into the u60s/around 70F across the north and m70s for
Downeast. Briefly considered a cold water safety SPS for this
afternoon but between anticipated showers and cloud cover opted
not to. This will likely be needed this weekend.

Under clear skies and cold advection behind reinforcing shot of
cooler an drier air, temps look to drop into the 40s for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak ridge of high pressure and a corridor of dry air will be over
the region on Saturday. This will bring a mostly sunny day with only
a few cumulus dotting the sky across northern parts of the region.
The air will be a bit cooler and drier than recent days. However,
highs from the upper 60s over the north to the low to mid 70s across
interior Downeast will be a few degrees above normal for late
May. Saturday night will begin mainly clear. A very weak wave in
the upper level westerlies will move in overnight bringing
patchy cloudiness for a partly cloudy night with the waning
gibbous moon rising late in the evening. High pressure will
begin to slide off to the east on Sunday. Some patchy clouds
will still be around from the upper disturbance. This will bring
a partly sunny day with a light southeasterly breeze carrying
in some return of humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will continue moving away to the east Sunday night
into Monday as the gradient continues to increase between departing
high pressure and a large low pressure system approaching from the
Great Lakes. This will bring increasing clouds and an increasing
southeasterly wind, especially during the day on Monday. The
relatively cooler air pushing up from the ocean to the south, in
addition to the cloudiness, will result in inland high in the upper
60s over the area.

Our focus later Monday into Monday night will be on a large storm
system lifting northeast from the Great Lakes region. The low will
pull an occlusion into the area late Monday or Monday evening. The
GFS is faster bringing rain in late Monday while the ECMWF holds the
rain off until later Monday evening. A windswept rain and moderate
southeasterly wind are then expected overnight Monday night,
tapering off to showers and lingering drizzle during the day on
Tuesday. This will result in a cool day on Tuesday with highs in the
low to mid 60s. This is a large storm system and models seem to be
consistent in carrying significant moderate amounts of rain so will
likely go categorical on pops late Monday night even though there
remains some timing differences in the long range models on when the
occlusion comes through.

An upper level trough and trailing surface low will lift across the
area Tuesday night through Wednesday and Thursday. This will keep
our weather unsettled through mid-week next week with clouds and
showers around both days. High pressure and upper ridging should
then bring a return of sunnier and warmer conditions on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR over northern Aroostook terminals with patchy fog
possible briefly at HUL initially. IFR/LIFR conditions at
Downeast terminals through approx 08-09z this morning before
improving to VFR.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR, Light NW wind.

Saturday night...VFR, Light NW wind becoming light and variable.


Sunday...VFR, Light SE wind.

Sunday night...VFR lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR from south to
north as low clouds move north.

Monday...MVFR or IFR becoming IFR. SE wind.

Monday night...IFR in rain, fog and low clouds. S wind.

Tuesday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR late. S wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
today and tonight. The outer waters will see southwest winds
gusting upwards of 22kts this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA through this
weekend. South winds may approach 25 kt on Tuesday. Seas may
build to 5 ft Monday night, 6 ft Tuesday, then back to 5 ft
Tuesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Buster/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/Bloomer