Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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252 FXUS62 KCHS 310400 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1200 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The boundary layer has decoupled with calm winds being reported at most locations. Temperatures are falling quickly given the strong radiational cooling regime that is in place. Lows form the upper 50s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston are on track. No major changes were made for the midnight update. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Decaying quasi Omega block pattern across the northern CONUS will be in place to begin the Short Term period with the eastern trough progressing across New England and associated stronger short-wave energy diving off the mid Atlantic. Sharp short-wave ridging will follow in its wake, building across the southeast CONUS and along the Atlantic coast through Saturday. Surface high pressure will also follow in kind, building along the Atlantic coast into Saturday before drifting into the Atlantic for the latter half of the weekend. Lack of any substantial forcing features along with a relatively dry and stable air mass overhead will lead to quiet conditions through at least Saturday, and probably Sunday as well...although pop-up shower chances may nudge upward a touch on Sunday as we start to get a better moisture return into the region, and there may be some decaying convection originating in the Gulf Coast to contend with. Meanwhile, only a minimal amount of thermal profile change is anticipated through Sunday with daytime highs running in the middle to upper 80s - warmest in SE Georgia along with surface dewpoints in the middle 50s to lower 60s through Saturday...inching up a touch on Sunday. Overall, quite nice for late May/early June. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dampen and transition off the coast for the early part of next week with a bit more nebulous flow pattern taking shape across the region through midweek. But this may open the door for a series of (largely) convectively induced waves to ripple out of the central/southern Plains and Gulf region and into/through the southeast and mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, we do pick up a modest return of warmer and higher dewpoint air into the region along with a bit more instability and increased diurnal convection chances; back toward isolated-scattered chances and in-line with climo PoPs for this time of year. Temperatures for the period start out in the middle to upper 80s but warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the middle and late week period. Overnight lows will span the 60s...warmer along the coast. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 31/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 01/06z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will gradually build in from the north. Expect relatively light winds in the evening, turning to the NE and becoming 5-10 kt after midnight. Seas will average 1-2 ft. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure initially centered north of the region will shift east and offshore over the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend over the area through the middle of next week. Conditions stay below Small Craft Advisory levels through the period, with winds speeds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2-3 feet. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$