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000
FXUS62 KCHS 042246
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
646 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Thursday. A cold front will
move through on Saturday, followed by cooler high pressure
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge south into the
region tonight, while a weak coastal trough takes shape
offshore. The potential for any shower activity largely looks to
stay over the waters, so a dry forecast is place for land areas.
Decent radiational cooling conditions through the night will
allow areas far inland as well as across the Francis Marion to
dip into the upper 50s. Elsewhere, low to mid 60s is expected,
with upper 60s expected along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure east of New England will remain wedged down the
East Coast Thursday, then shift east by Thursday night. A weak
coastal trough will linger nearby on Thursday, with isolated
showers possibly moving into eastern SC Thursday afternoon. A
potent shortwave will move through Friday afternoon. Moisture
will be limited so we do not expect much precipitation, though
an isolated shower or tstm will be possible over eastern
Charleston/Berkeley Counties in the afternoon. A cold front will
sweep through Saturday morning, though downslope flow in the
wake of the front will push highs into the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool, dry high pressure will prevail Saturday night through
Wednesday. Sunday and Monday mornings look the coolest due to
best radiational cooling. Inland lows will dip into the mid 40s.
Temperatures will moderate by mid week as a zonal flow develops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR is expected through 00z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The pressure gradient will remain enhanced through the
night resulting in NE winds around 15 kt. Gusts will mostly top
out around 20 kt with a few locations across the Georgia waters
with gusts near 25 kt. Wave heights will range from 3-5 feet in
the nearshore waters, and 6-7 feet in the outer GA waters (from
20-60nm) where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

Thursday through Monday: NE winds will gradually weaken on
Thursday as the surface high to the north weakens and shifts
east. A cold front will move through early Saturday, after which
a brief WNW wind surge occurs. Currently, we show winds/seas
remaining just below Small Craft Advisory criteria through
Sunday. Winds will turn more to the SW early next week as high
pressure expands over the area.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect for
all area beaches for the remainder of the day.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...BRM/JRL