Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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569
FXUS62 KCHS 220417
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1217 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into early next week. A coastal
trough or weak area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday
into Wednesday followed by a cold front near the end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The boundary layer has decoupled and temperatures are falling a
bit quicker than expected. Latest H3R and RAP show temperatures
dropping into the mid 60s across the interior and even into the
upper 60s just inland from the beaches. Beach temperatures will
only bottom out in the upper 70s/near 80, including Downtown
Charleston. Adjusted overnight lows down a few degrees per
latest trends and modified hourly temperatures to match.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will strengthen north of the area into Monday
while weak low pressure south of Bermuda moves southwest toward
the Southeast U.S. coast. Conditions appear somewhat favorable
for this low to strengthen a bit so we`ll keep an eye on it but
we don`t anticipate significant intensification at this time as
conditions should become less favorable as it heads farther
north. Otherwise rain chances should be minimal for most of the
area through the weekend with the best chances across southeast
GA. By Monday expect deeper moisture and better convergence to
lead to higher rain chances. Not much instability however so
thunderstorms don`t appear too likely with the best chances over
the Atlantic and closer to the coast. Temperatures look to
remain above normal, but closer to normal Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers are expected throughout the short term due to plenty of
moisture across the region and several features providing lift.
A coastal trough is forecasted to slowly approach from the east
Monday Night while a stationary front is to our north. By
Tuesday the coastal trough is forecasted to weaken while it
moves overhead or just to our north. At that time, the
stationary front to our north will transition into a warm front
and move northwards while a cold front slowly approaches our
area from the far west. Wednesday the cold front will continue
to slowly approach. Thursday the cold front is forecasted to
start moving into our area, then possibly stall out in our area.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR generally expected at KCHS/KSAV
through the weekend with a better chance of restrictions
starting Monday as deeper moisture moves into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Flow around high pressure will result in continuing
east winds averaging 10-15 knots, diminishing to 5-10 kt late.
Seas will average 1-2 ft nearshore and 2-3 ft offshore. A slight
chance of showers primarily for Georgia coastal waters will be
maintained.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail north of
the area while a trough/weak low pressure system approaches
from the east Monday. This secondary feature, which could
develop into a tropical cyclone per the NHC, should remain weak
as it encounters more unfavorable conditions while moving
northwest and then north around the western edge of Atlantic
high pressure. Not expecting Advisory conditions at this time
but winds/seas will increase early next week as this feature
approaches. Conditions will then improve Wednesday as the
pressure gradient weakens and winds shift out of the south.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$



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