627
FXUS62 KCHS 140758
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
358 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will meander near or just off the coast
through the end of the week. A weak cold front will drop into
the forecast area early this weekend before high pressure
spreads in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today, the forecast will remain between weak high pressure centered
over GA as low pressure tracks NE across the western Atlantic. At
H5, the mid-level trough will shift over the Atlantic as a ridge
builds east across the Deep South. Based on satellite water vapor
trends and forecast soundings, deeper dry air will arrive from the
west through today. The dry air should keep conditions between
mostly sunny to partly sunny. High temperatures are forecast to
range from the mid 90s inland to around 90 along the coast.

Tonight, a backdoor cold front will approach the forecast area from
the north. South term guidance indicates that the front may reach
the PeeDee Region across SC by 12Z Sat. Winds across the forecast
area should remain light front the southwest through tonight. Given
the light sfc winds and rising H5 heights tonight, low temperatures
should generally range between 70-75 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday: Ridging aloft will build into the southeastern states from
the southwest, while at the surface a cold front will be located
just to the north of the forecast area at daybreak. A hot day is
forecast, with high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s away
from the beaches. Heat index values are expected to reach between
100-104F, falling short of Heat Advisory criteria. The cold front is
forecast to push through the forecast area through the daylight
hours, although it is expected to weaken as it moves southward.
Between the front and the local sea breeze circulation isolated to
possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to form,
mainly in the afternoon hours. Even with PWAT values approaching 1.6
inches, model soundings indicate that there is likely going to be a
considerable amount of mid-level dry air in place, hindering
convective initiation. Overnight lows will be quite mild, only
dropping into the low 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s closer to
the coastline.

Sunday: The center of high pressure aloft will shift to be directly
over the southeastern states. At the surface, the remnants of the
aforementioned cold front will be stalled across southeastern GA.
This feature will slowly sink further southward as high pressure
builds in from the north. There will likely be enough lingering
moisture for the afternoon sea breeze to trigger isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs across southeastern SC
are forecast to reach into the low 90s, with mid to upper 90s across
southeastern GA. Heat Index values across southeastern GA could once
again reach 100-101F. Overnight temperatures are forecast to dip
into the upper 60s across inland SC, with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Monday: The center of high pressure aloft will remain over the
southeastern state. At the surface high pressure will continue to
build into the forecast area from the north. Temperatures are
forecast to reach into the low 90s inland, with upper 80s along the
coastline. Some moisture streaming in from the Atlantic may be
enough to spur isolated to possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the coastal areas of southeast GA. Otherwise,
dry conditions are forecast as plentiful dry air encompasses the
forecast area with the building high pressure both aloft and at the
surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through the end of the week high pressure looks to hold strong over
the local forecast area, both at the surface and aloft. Precipitation
chances look to be limited to the adjacent coastal waters, where
moisture will be greatest. Some of these showers/tstorms could
possibly brush the beaches, although overall conditions appear to be
dry. Temperatures are forecast to sit right around to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6Z TAFs: Low pressure over the western Atlantic will track to
the northeast this morning. As the low departs, a drier air mass
will be drawn across the forecast area with NE winds.
Conditions across the terminals should remain VFR through the
TAF period. A sea breeze is timed to develop this afternoon,
reaching KJZI by 18z and KCHS and KSAV between 20-21Z. In the
wake of the sea breeze, winds should shift from the SE around 10
kts. Winds should settle from the SE this evening, decreasing to
around 5 kts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight restrictions
are possible with isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, IR satellite and KCLX data indicated a narrow
band of clouds associated with a land breeze just off the GA and SC
coast. The Waterspout Index indicates a low risk for waterspouts
along this boundary this morning. We will continue to monitor
conditions through daybreak.

The sfc pattern should yield NE winds between 10 to 15 kts this
morning, seas between 2-4 ft. A sea breeze is expected to develop
during the early afternoon hours, shifting winds from the east.
Tonight, weak high pressure will slide over the marine zones by late
tonight. Southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts should remain across the
coastal waters tonight. Seas are forecast to range from 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: Generally tranquil marine conditions are
expected through the middle of next week, with southeast winds
Saturday generally less than 10 knots shifting to the northeast by
Monday and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to
average 2 to 4 ft.

Rip Currents: Gusty NE winds will remain through this morning, then
becoming onshore this afternoon. Additionally, a SE swell around 2
ft near 7 seconds should impact the beaches along with a potentially
moderate longshore current. This could lead to rip currents. Hence,
there is a Moderate Risk for the GA beaches, especially Tybee
Island.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED