481
FXUS62 KCHS 141711
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
111 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will meander near or just off the coast
through the end of the week. A weak cold front will drop into
the forecast area early this weekend before high pressure
spreads in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this afternoon: No change to the forecast. Previous
discussion continues below.

Late this morning: Surface analysis and satellite imagery shows
that the area of low pressure off the coast is centered to the
southeast of the NC Outer Banks. All is clear across the
forecast area this morning, other than scattered weak showers
over the Georgia coastal waters along an area of convergence
likely associated with a land breeze. This shower activity will
continue to move to the south and away from the coast over the
next couple of hours. By the afternoon we will lose the
influence of the aforementioned surface low as it pulls further
away. This means the northerly and northeasterly flow we are
experiencing now will end and onshore flow will develop with the
diurnal sea breeze. The airmass is pretty dry across the region,
with some areas of precipitable water values less than an inch
across central Georgia and the South Carolina Midlands. Model
soundings are dry and capped, so we continue to advertise a dry
forecast. If we were to see an isolated shower or storm, it
would likely be along the Georgia coast where there is a little
better available moisture as evidenced by some early developing
cumulus. It will be warm day, with highs in the low to mid 90s
away from the immediate coast.

Tonight: A backdoor cold front will approach the forecast area
from the north. South term guidance indicates that the front may
reach the Pee Dee Region across SC by 12Z Sat. Winds across the
forecast area should remain light front the southwest through
tonight. Given the light sfc winds and rising H5 heights
tonight, low temperatures should generally range between 70-75
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Ridging aloft will build into the southeastern states
from the southwest, while at the surface a cold front will be
located just to the north of the forecast area at daybreak. A
hot day is forecast, with high temperatures reaching into the
upper 90s away from the beaches. Heat index values are expected
to reach between 100-104F, falling short of Heat Advisory
criteria. The cold front is forecast to push through the
forecast area through the daylight hours, although it is
expected to weaken as it moves southward. Between the front and
the local sea breeze circulation isolated to possibly scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to form, mainly in the
afternoon hours. Even with PWAT values approaching 1.6 inches,
model soundings indicate that there is likely going to be a
considerable amount of mid-level dry air in place, hindering
convective initiation. Overnight lows will be quite mild, only
dropping into the low 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s closer
to the coastline.

Sunday: The center of high pressure aloft will shift to be
directly over the southeastern states. At the surface, the
remnants of the aforementioned cold front will be stalled across
southeastern GA. This feature will slowly sink further
southward as high pressure builds in from the north. There will
likely be enough lingering moisture for the afternoon sea breeze
to trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Highs across southeastern SC are forecast to reach into the low
90s, with mid to upper 90s across southeastern GA. Heat Index
values across southeastern GA could once again reach 100-101F.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 60s
across inland SC, with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Monday: The center of high pressure aloft will remain over the
southeastern state. At the surface high pressure will continue
to build into the forecast area from the north. Temperatures are
forecast to reach into the low 90s inland, with upper 80s along
the coastline. Some moisture streaming in from the Atlantic may
be enough to spur isolated to possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the coastal areas of southeast GA.
Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast as plentiful dry air
encompasses the forecast area with the building high pressure
both aloft and at the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through the end of the week high pressure looks to hold strong
over the local forecast area, both at the surface and aloft.
Precipitation chances look to be limited to the adjacent coastal
waters, where moisture will be greatest. Some of these
showers/tstorms could possibly brush the beaches, although
overall conditions appear to be dry. Temperatures are forecast
to sit right around to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Saturday. Model guidance suggests there could be
some patch fog along the Georgia coast, but this should stay
south of KSAV so no fog has been included.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight
restrictions are possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
At dawn, visible satellite and KCLX data indicated a narrow
band of clouds associated with a land breeze just off the GA and
SC coast. The Waterspout Index indicates a low risk for
waterspouts along this boundary this morning. We will continue
to monitor conditions through daybreak.

The sfc pattern should yield NE winds between 10 to 15 kts this
morning, seas between 2-4 ft. A sea breeze is expected to
develop during the early afternoon hours, shifting winds from
the east. Tonight, weak high pressure will slide over the marine
zones by late tonight. Southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts should
remain across the coastal waters tonight. Seas are forecast to
range from 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: Generally tranquil marine
conditions are expected through the middle of next week, with
southeast winds Saturday generally less than 10 knots shifting
to the northeast by Monday and increasing to 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are forecast to average 2 to 4 ft.

Rip Currents: Gusty NE winds will remain through this morning,
then becoming onshore this afternoon. Additionally, a SE swell
around 2 ft near 7 seconds should impact the beaches along with
a potentially moderate longshore current. This could lead to rip
currents. Hence, there is a Moderate Risk for the GA beaches,
especially Tybee Island.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...BSH/CPM
MARINE...CPM/NED