547
FXUS61 KCLE 171908
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
308 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through this
week, resulting in near-record temperatures across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the
forecast area this afternoon, as convective temperatures are
being reached in the mid 90s and surface dew points start
broaching the 70 degree mark across northern Ohio. However, with
no real forcing other than the diurnal forcing, coverage is
just scattered across the region. However, the environment for
these storms is generally supportive for strong to severe
convection with SBCAPE values reaching over 3500 J/kg, DCAPE
values exceeding 1000 J/kg, and low level lapse rates in excess
of 8 C/km, which will support robust, quickly growing updrafts
that will support severe sized hail and tall enough cores that
could descend as downbursts with winds over 60 MPH. Several
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements are
ongoing and the environment appears favorable for strong to
severe storms through early evening. Convection will move east
of the area later this evening and subside with a more stable
environment with the loss of diurnal heating. Residual cloud
cover across the region from this afternoon`s storms could
remain for some portion of tonight and help keep temperatures
slightly elevated with lows likely not escaping the 70s for most
of the forecast area.

Tuesday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today. An abnormally
warm summer air mass will allow for temperatures to exceed 90
degrees and dew point values will once again approach the 70
degree mark. This will allow for heat index values to exceed 100
degrees and the Heat Advisory will remain valid. Temperatures
should hit convective temperatures again with the diurnal cycle
and scattered showers and storms will be present again. Storms
could once again have a bite with an generally unstable
environment to support some strong to severe wind and hail. Any
convection will also taper off temperatures and heat index
values from hitting the Heat Advisory values. Residual clouds
and abnormally warm air mass will have another dry, but warm
Tuesday night with lows likely staying above 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
One of the consistent difficulties in the forecast for this stretch
of weather dominated by a strong dome of upper level high pressure
to the east/northeast of the CWA is trying to determine if there is
enough layer moisture for convection to develop, and if so, to what
extent. The operational models continue to try to push out QPF
associated with weak waves in the south to north flow, but looking
at forecast soundings shows it remains pretty dry above the boundary
layer. Will opt to keep some low POPs in across the area just
because there is not enough confidence to completely remove them
given the setup and feel isolated convection is a reasonable
forecast. Thursday is a day for stronger ridging aloft, getting away
from the south to north flow with a westward expansion of the ridge
axis into the southern Great Lakes. This keeps the baroclinic zone
well to the north of the CWA and likely cuts off the tropical flow
of moisture as well. Some trickiness to the temperatures Wednesday
as there will not be any real change to the airmass in place but
there could be an increase in high level/cirrus cloud cover. This
could keep the temperatures down a degree or two from previous
forecasts where every degree helps in this hotter pattern. Dewpoints
have come up slightly however, and the the apparent temperature
values likely are not going to change much if the slightly cooler
forecast materializes. Expecting Thursday to be a little hotter once
again with slight 500mb height increases from the aforementioned
expanding ridge axis influence over the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expecting gradual degradation of the dominant upper level ridge
pattern along with a southward migration for the end of the week and
into the weekend. At this point, trying to pin down the next
significant chances for rain which appear to be Sunday. Flow aloft
will become a bit more zonal allowing for more organized systems to
work into the area. Still on the hot side for Thursday and Friday,
but gradual cooling through the long term and should be in in the
80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions are at the terminals this afternoon with the
exception being any terminal being impacts by a scattered
thunderstorm. Storms will continue across northern Ohio over the
next several hours. Some storms have had a bite with them with
gusts over 30 kt but confidence in that impact at a terminal is
very low. Convection will subside with the diurnal cycle tonight
and trend to VFR. Will need to monitor for fog overnight, where
convection occurred the atmosphere has some chance to decouple.
Afternoon cumulus and new shower/storm chances will be possible
toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will favor southerly
through the period.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is
low.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds generally less than 10kts through Wednesday become
light and variable for the end of the week. Wave heights through the
entire forecast period less than a foot through Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms possible today and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on
several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June
21 are listed below for our official climate sites.


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...