Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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255 FXUS64 KCRP 212333 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 633 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Concur with the deterministic runs that the CWA will remain under the influence of a flat upper ridge while a series of upper disturbances move eastward just to the north. PWAT values over the CWA are predicted to remain above normal during the period, yet the lower/mid level inversion will preclude precipitation during the period. High Heat Index values expected again Wednesday afternoon over the CWA. Will defer to the mid shift to decide on specific counties to include in a Heat Advisory for Wednesday. Spectral density output at buoy 42019/42020 suggest that swell periods will remain below 8 seconds, and will maintain a Low risk of rip currents tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. Not much has changed since the previous forecast. The long-term pattern continues to feature ridging aloft due to high pressure over northern/northeastern Mexico. This will maintain 850mb southwesterly flow, allowing for warmer air from northern Mexico to move into our CWA. Some of this warm air will mix down to the surface, resulting in temperatures in the 90s to low 100s across much of the area. Persistent onshore southeasterly flow at the surface will bring moisture inland, pushing heat indices well into Heat Advisory territory. Daily Heat Advisories are likely starting Thursday, with heat indices reaching 110 or higher. Excessive Heat Warnings may be necessary from Friday into the holiday weekend for parts of the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains which could experience heat indices of 115 or greater. The heat risk is expected to escalate from "Major" (level 3 out of 4) on Thursday to "Extreme" (level 4 out of 4) from Friday onward. Record or near-record warm overnight lows will provide little relief to those with out adequate cooling, only dropping to the upper 80s to low 80s. As the holiday weekend approaches and outdoor plans are likely, please practice heat safety! Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it! Remember your pets too during this warm spell. Bring them inside, and give them plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter a loss of power. If using a portable generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning--NEVER use a generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed spaces! While this heat is expected to persist into early next week, some "relief" may arrive shortly after. There is decent agreement among global deterministic models that an upper-level low may bring a boundary into South Texas and a low chance (10-20%) of showers for portions of the Brush Country late next Monday into Tuesday. If the boundary does pass this far south, expect only a slight cooldown of a few degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 MVFR CIGS will quickly set back in for eastern sites tonight and persist through early Wednesday. COT and LRD should also get a period of MVFR CIGS, but not until later in the night. Some vis restrictions are also possible east, but mainly at MVFR levels as winds will remain up a bit more than last night. VFR conditions return for tomorrow, but will be close to MVFR at CRP/VCT through the day. Gusty winds are expected, especially at CRP/VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through Wednesday night. Expect periods of moderate to strong onshore flow each afternoon for Thursday through Monday across our waters, especially the southern bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 92 80 92 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 80 105 80 106 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 89 81 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>244. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WC LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...PH/83