Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 172350 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
550 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...A brief respite from the clouds over South Texas will
continue through this evening and early part of the overnight
hours. VFR conditions will persist through early Monday morning.
Post frontal stratus deck lingers over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico. As low level flow veers to easterly late tonight, the
low clouds will approach the coast before 12Z. Went with the
GFS/RAP solution compared to the NAM with regards to moisture
return and arrival of low clouds. NAM seems to be too early
bringing moisture back lately. MVFR ceilings expected to reach
CRP around 12Z and ALI by 14Z. Clouds will reach the western
Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads by mid afternoon but
ceilings will be VFR. North to northeast winds will be gusty
along the coast through early Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Sunshine. We have sunshine. Drier air behind the morning cold
front continues to clear out the skies and lifted the fog along
the coast. High pressure will continue to build into the region
tonight with northerly winds strengthening to Small Craft Advisory
levels across the gulf waters. But alas, good things must come to
an end as remnants of the boundary meet up with an area of low
pressure across the western Gulf. This will then lift to the north
as a coastal trough along the Texas coast, returning the clouds
and chances for rain. Isentropic lift remains rather weak, so did
slow down the return of rain chances for more into Monday night,
although, moisture should be enough to increase clouds Monday
morning. Temperatures tonight should be much cooler under mostly
clear skies. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the mid 40s
for most inland locations, with lows in the low 50s along the
coast. As cloud coverage increases Monday along with a persistent
northeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to struggle to warm.
Highs for Monday are expected to range in the upper 50s to lower
60s. The increase in moisture should allow for Monday night lows
to range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

Extended period begins with a weak quasi-stationary boundary over
the northwest Gulf acting as a coastal trough. Overall pattern will
remain rather static through the week as several weak areas of high
pressure drift down into the region. Each one will subtly shift
surface wind directions as they move through the mean flow, but
overall pattern will feature persistent overrunning, with extensive
cloudiness and intermittent light rain or drizzle near the coast.
Further west will break out of this pattern from time to time, with
at least partial sunshine at times and somewhat warmer temperatures.

Medium range models are advertising that this pattern will break on
Saturday as the coastal boundary finally lifts back northward and
then is swept away by a cool front passage on Saturday and Saturday
night.

Temperatures remain mainly below normal for the week with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the gulf waters tonight
through late Monday night as high pressure continues to build into
the region with strong northeast flow. A weak coastal trough will
move into the region Monday, with chances for light rain and
showers expected.

SCA conditions should subside during the day on Tuesday. A
persistent northeast to easterly flow will persist through much of
the week associated with a coastal trough. Periodic weak reinforcing
areas of high pressure dropping into the region may periodically
back the flow closer to north. If this backing surface flow does not
occur, there is some potential for tidal overflow or increased rip
current risk in the middle of the week. This risk will only exist if
we have several days of persistent east-northeast flow along area
beaches. Intermittent light rain and drizzle will be common through
the week until drier air behind a cool front reaches the waters on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    50  59  54  66  51  /  10  20  50  40  40
Victoria          45  62  51  60  48  /   0  10  50  50  40
Laredo            48  64  52  68  52  /   0  10  20  20  30
Alice             48  59  52  65  51  /  10  10  40  30  40
Rockport          50  59  55  63  51  /  10  20  50  40  40
Cotulla           44  64  49  62  47  /   0  10  20  40  30
Kingsville        51  59  54  67  53  /  10  20  40  30  40
Navy Corpus       54  60  57  66  54  /  10  20  50  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION


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