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000
FXUS64 KCRP 281132
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Key Messages:

 - The chance for thunderstorms will continue today and tonight,
mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.

 - Slight risk of excessive rainfall across the Rio Grande Plains
   and Brush Country, mainly for tonight.

An MCS currently moving across the Rio Grande Plains this morning,
is expected to continue to move generally southeast and weaken as it
moves into a less favorable environment. Rain chances dwindle behind
the MCS as a mid level short wave ridge builds across the area later
this morning with relatively quiet weather expected for a few hours.
Rain chances increase once again later this afternoon across the Rio
Grande Plains as another stronger short wave trough approaches the
area from the west. Another round of storms are progged to develop
in Mexico later this afternoon and push east to southeast as they
become better organized into an MCS through tonight and move across
the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country.

Models indicate moisture deepening across the Rio Grande Plains
today with PWATs up to 1.8 inches this afternoon and approaching 2
inches by tonight. Models indicate an increasing diffluent flow
aloft as the short wave approaches, as well as increasing low level
convergence due to a surface reflection of the upper trough. By
tonight, forecast soundings indicate the environment will be almost
saturated with `skinny` CAPE making for an efficient rainfall
profile.

The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight risk of excessive
rainfall for the western portions of S TX today/tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Monday
- Periods of heavy rainfall possible

Another shortwave will eject across the Rio Grande as we head into
Monday. The majority of guidance has come into agreement that this
feature will develop into a closed low in the mid levels that
reflects down to the surface. Streams of vorticity wrapping around
the mid level low combined with enhanced surface convergence will
generate a healthy shot at showers and thunderstorms. While
conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall (long skinny CAPE
profiles with a warm cloud depth up to 13kft) on Monday, the
forecast will be dependent on how much we are able to destabilize in
the wake of another potential MCS moving across the region tonight.
If we think back to our last heavy rainfall event, we had a
nocturnal line of storms that moved through the region. It worked
over the atmosphere to a point that we were not able to destabilize
sufficiently enough to produce additional heavy rainfall over the
weekend. With that said, HREF probabilities reveal increasing
chances for heavy rainfall: ~60% chance for at least 1"/hr, ~25%
chance for 2"/hr, and a ~10% chance for 3"/hr. So, if we are able
to destabilize Monday afternoon, periods of heavy rainfall seem
likely. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for
all of South Texas on Monday. QPF amounts have trended up a bit
from the last forecast cycle. We are now looking at 1-2" out west
with 2-3" possible east of Highway 281. It`s possible we see some
locally higher amounts depending on where the axis of heaviest
rainfall sets up.

Another round of showers and storms appears possible Monday night
into Tuesday morning, generally across our coastal regions, as a
band of H7 vorticity is tugged through the region. Ridging will
begin to build in from the west through the day Tuesday which will
nudge our lingering closed low eastward across the Gulf. Dry
conditions will settle in for the remainder of the work week.
Another trough will slide across the Southern Plains next weekend
leading to a slight uptick in rain chances.

After a "cooler" start to the week with highs in the low to mid 80s,
we will warm up nicely with temps back in the mid 90s by mid week.
Our warming trend will continue into next weekend. Low temps will
generally range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the mid 70s
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Storms across the Brush Country earlier this morning are
diminishing and should be little to no rain by mid morning. A
brief respite from the convection is expected through mid
afternoon ahead of the next round of storms. Another storm system
is expected to develop this afternoon across Mexico then move
across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country by late afternoon.
Storms are expected to push east to southeast tonight with storms
reaching the coast by late tonight/early Monday morning. Additional
storms are expected through the day Monday. MVFR/IFR conditions
will be possible with the stronger storms and heavier rainfall.
Outside of the convection, VFR conditions are expected with CIGs
above 3kft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

A generally weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected today and
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and reduced
visibilities are possible with any passing shower or storm. A weak
to moderate southeasterly flow on Monday will begin to vary
between the east and northeast through the remainder of week
starting on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  72  83  70 /  10  40  50  40
Victoria          87  69  82  68 /  10  20  60  40
Laredo            89  70  86  70 /  40  60  40  10
Alice             89  68  83  67 /  20  40  60  30
Rockport          87  75  83  71 /  10  30  60  40
Cotulla           90  69  83  69 /  30  40  40  10
Kingsville        88  71  85  68 /  20  40  50  40
Navy Corpus       85  77  82  73 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...TE/81