Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231113
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
613 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing MVFR CIGs this morning are expected to become VFR by
late morning, then MVFR once again this evening. Isolated
SHRA/TSRAs are possible today, becoming isolated to scattered late
tonight into early Wed morning. There may be brief periods of IFR
conditions toward early Wed morning due to the increasing
convection. For now, only have a mention of TSRA in the VCT TAF
due to ongoing radar trends, but not in the other TAF sites as the
probability is too low through this afternoon. Have introduced a
PROB30 group for late tonight/early Wed morning for all TAF sites
due to the increasing chances of convection. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen later this morning with gusts between
20-28kt through this afternoon, especially closer to the coast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
through the short term as a potent upper low approaches the region
and ejects embedded short waves across S TX. Today sufficient
moisture will be in place for isolated convection as an embedded
short wave tracks across the area. The upper dynamics and an
unstable atmosphere could lead to a few thunderstorms, however
forecast soundings show a strong cap in place inhibiting deeper
convection and keeping the showers isolated. Rain chances are
expected to decrease this evening, then increase after midnight as
another short wave tracks across the area. The better chances are
expected to be across the northwestern CWA. POPs increase across the
northern and western CWA through the day Wednesday as the main upper
low moves across W TX. Models show increasing diffluence aloft with
the approach of the upper system, along with mod to strong CAPE,
weakening cap, and an approaching dryline/trough ahead of a cold
front. Some of the mesoscale models show the dryline entering the
western CWA by late Wed afternoon, which would provide a focus for
storms. There remains some uncertainty with respect to the cap and
how much it weakens and with timing of the upper dynamics, sfc
trough and approaching cold front.

As for temps and winds, a moderate onshore flow will maintain warm,
breezy conditions today through Wed.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

The main time frame of interest during the extended is Wednesday
night as showers and storms will be moving through the region.
Otherwise, fairly benign weather is expected across South Texas for
the rest of the week into early next week.

Sufficient instability and 0-6km shear on the order of 50 to 60
knots will support a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening and night. Thunderstorms should develop northwest
of the area on Wednesday afternoon. Into the evening hours, the
storms may organize into a line and sweep across South Texas as
suggested by various hi-res models. Damaging winds and some large
hail would be the primary hazards with these storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will be winding down Thursday morning as
front continues to push off to the east. Low pops were retained
between 12z and 18z Thursday for the northern Coastal Bend and Gulf
Waters. However, if faster solutions verify, storms may be east of
the area by 12z.  Skies will clear throughout the day as drier air
filters in from the west.

Upper level ridge will quickly build in over South Texas Friday and
remain over the area into the weekend. This will bring a period of
quiet weather with little to no chances for rain. Ridge axis shifts
off to the east early next week as the next upper level trough moves
out of New Mexico into the Southern High Plains. Despite a gradual
increase in moisture early next week, forecast will remain dry for
now through D7/D8.

Temperatures through the period will be on the warm side. The front
will not impact temperatures much, if at all. Highs on Thursday will
approach 90 out west with low 80s over the Victoria Crossroads.
Gradual warming will occur this weekend into early next week as
highs will climb into the low/mid 90s over the Rio Grande to mid 80s
over the Victoria Crossroads.

MARINE...

A generally moderate onshore flow is expected today through Wed. The
flow could border on advisory levels at times. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday as the upper level low
approaches the region.Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase Wednesday night as a cold front approaches the the
Middle Texas Coastal Waters. A few of these storms may become
strong with gusty winds. Rain chances will begin to diminish on
Thursday as drier air moves in from the west. Offshore winds will
develop behind the front on Thursday and continue into Friday.
Onshore flow will resume on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  72  83  66  85  /  20  20  30  50  10
Victoria          80  68  81  64  81  /  20  30  40  70  10
Laredo            87  72  89  64  90  /  20  30  30  20   0
Alice             84  70  84  64  87  /  20  30  40  50   0
Rockport          77  71  79  66  81  /  10  20  30  60  10
Cotulla           84  68  84  60  86  /  20  50  50  30   0
Kingsville        83  71  84  65  87  /  20  20  30  50  10
Navy Corpus       79  72  80  69  82  /  10  20  20  50  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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