Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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680
FXUS64 KCRP 160454 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1054 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Southerly winds have remained gusty a little longer
than expected this evening over the coastal plains. Stratus
continues to develop and spread across the coastal plains late
this evening. The southerly low level jet will remain from 30-40
knots over the coastal plains overnight. Ceilings/vsbys will fall
to IFR around 08-09Z but do not expect fog to become dense as low
level flow will be fairly strong. Low level flow will be weaker
over the Brush Country and expect low stratus to be LIFR levels
from 09-14Z with vsbys from MVFR to IFR. Ceilings will improve to
MVFR and fog dissipate as low level flow veers to southwest and
west with approach of the pre-frontal trough. Conditions will
improve to VFR early in the afternoon over the Brush Country as
the cold front moves through. MVFR ceilings will hold over the
coastal plains as the front moves into the Gulf waters late
afternoon and north winds become gusty. Drier air behind the
front will erode the low clouds with VFR conditions expected
Monday evening with strong and gusty north winds over coastal
areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 943 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows clouds on the increase over
the coastal plains this evening. Fog has formed along the coast
with visibility between 3-5 SM this evening. Adjusted weather
grids to show onset of fog earlier for late this evening along
the coast and pushing inland overnight.

The cold front continues to push south through central Texas this
evening. Appears the colder air with the front will arrive into
the Victoria Crossroads a little earlier looking at the latest
Consshort and 00Z NAM. Adjusted temperatures for tomorrow to
reflect this.

MARINE...Almost reissued the SCA for the southern near shore
waters earlier this evening but winds have decreased. Patchy fog
will affect the bays and near shore waters tonight. Adjusted the
timing of the cold front a little earlier with the onset of
stronger north winds as colder air arrives sooner. No adjustment
was made to the current Gale Watch but this will likely be
upgraded to a Warning on the midnight shift.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  77  42  58  37  /  10   0   0   0   0
Victoria          67  71  38  55  31  /  20  30   0   0   0
Laredo            60  81  44  58  35  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             65  78  42  60  35  /  10   0   0   0   0
Rockport          68  71  43  57  40  /  20  20   0   0   0
Cotulla           58  77  39  59  31  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        67  79  42  60  36  /  10   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       69  74  45  55  42  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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