Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 242356
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
656 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently as weak high pressure builds into the
Coastal Bend. Expect MVFR cigs to develop toward daybreak as low
level moisture returns, with those cigs lingering through much of
the morning. Cigs will eventually become VFR and mix out as
southeast surface winds increase Saturday afternoon, particularly
along the coast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Clouds are beginning to erode across S TX this afternoon and this
trend is expected to continue through this evening. Surface high
pressure will move east overnight resulting in the light northerly
winds to shift to the south-southeast. This will usher low level
moisture/clouds and warmer temps back across S TX. Lows are expected
to be in the 60s area-wide tonight. Although dewpoints will be on
the increase, fog is not anticipated due to the blanket of clouds
hindering radiational cooling.

Highs on Sunday will be around 15 degrees warmer than today. Mostly
cloudy skies in the morning will become partly cloudy by Sunday
afternoon with high pressure aloft still in control, but moving
southeast of S TX in response to an upper level long wave trough
moving southeast across the western CONUS. This will result in low
pressure across W TX to deepen and lead to a tightening pressure
gradient across S TX. Thus, south to southeast winds will be breezy,
especially across the southern Coastal Bend.

Even warmer temps expected Sunday night as warm air advection
continues, leading to lows in the low to mid 70s. Mostly cloudy
skies will redevelop.

The environment will remain too dry for any precip through Sunday
night.

Tides from Port Aransas southward continue to run above normal, but
are slowly trending downward. Minor coastal flooding is not
anticipated, but will continue to monitor trends as tide levels may
reach just shy of 2ft above MSL at high tide tonight.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A bit of a tricky forecast for the long term as we deal with an
approaching cold front and potential tropical impacts. To kick off
the period, an upper level trough will dig across the southwest US
before lifting to the northeast across North Texas. Meanwhile, a
cold front will travel south down across the state. The NAM is
now the fastest solution with the front draped across
our northern tier of counties during the late afternoon hours on
Monday and offshore by daybreak Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
a bit slower with the front across the Brush Country shortly after
sunset but then stall the boundary along the coast by sunrise on
Tuesday. The CMC splits the difference of the 2 solutions. With
moisture pooling ahead of the boundary and sufficient instability,
expect isolated showers and thunderstorms along the front. Coverage
looks to be greatest out west where moisture will be deeper and
several H5 shortwaves eject out ahead of the upper level low. Even
if the front does not push all the way off the coast, it is likely
we still see a northeasterly wind shift as we begin to be influenced
by Tropical Depression 28. Kept a mention of showers in the wake of
the front on Tuesday as isentropic lift (best from 300
to 305K) kicks in.

As the upper level low progresses to the east by mid week, a
reinforcing surge of high pressure will will push south on
Wednesday. With moisture lingering, we should be able to squeeze out
a few isolated showers Wednesday into Wednesday night before
significantly drier air moves in. The upper level ridge builds in
towards the end of the work weeks and keeps us dry through the
weekend.

We are in for quite the swing in temperatures early next week.
Monday will be our warmest day with temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Following our warmest day of the week, Tuesday will be our coldest
day with highs struggling to break out of the 60s across inland
areas. After the roller coaster to start the week, high temps will
remain in the 70s with lows generally in the 50s inland and low 60s
along the coast.

Coastal flooding again looks to be an issue going through the week.
Latest guidance suggests water levels exceeding 2ft MSL during times
of high tide as we begin to see impacts from newly named Tropical
Depression 28.

MARINE...
Winds will continue to weaken this evening. Surface high pressure
will move east through tonight resulting in northerly winds shifting
around to the south-southeast overnight. The onshore flow will
strengthen to moderate levels by Sunday afternoon in response to
deepening low pressure across West Texas. Winds may approach
advisory levels by Sunday night. A cold front will push across
South Texas monday night into Tuesday morning. There are still
some discrepancies as to whether or not the boundary will move
offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Tuesday morning with mainly showers expected on Tuesday in the
wake of the front. A northeasterly wind shift is expected over the
waters, even if the front doesn`t move offshore, as we begin to
see impacts from a developing tropical system in the Gulf. A
reinforcing surge of high pressure will move through Wednesday
resulting in potential SCA conditions. Winds will slowly relax
through the end of the work week with SCEC conditions continuing
as we head into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    64  85  74  86  62  /  10  10  10  10  30
Victoria          59  83  73  84  56  /  10  10  10  20  30
Laredo            64  91  72  88  57  /   0  10  10  10  30
Alice             61  90  72  90  60  /   0  10  10  10  30
Rockport          69  85  75  85  62  /  10  10  10  10  30
Cotulla           60  88  72  86  54  /   0   0  10  10  40
Kingsville        62  87  73  88  62  /  10  10  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       68  84  77  85  66  /  10  10  10   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION


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