Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

548
FXUS64 KCRP 222354 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
554 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...Will allow Wind Advisory to expire at 00Z Wednesday
for the southern Coastal Bend. See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid and high level clouds continue to stream across
the region in advance of the upper level trough moving in from the
west. Strong southerly winds will linger for another hour or so
over the coastal plains. But the winds will relax after that as
a prefrontal trough, already over the Brush Country, moves toward
the coast ahead of the main cold front. The cold front is expect
to push into the region and be near a VCT-COT line by 06Z and be
off the coast by 09Z Wednesday. Expect MVFR ceiling will form
in advance of the front over the coastal plains this evening.
Areas of light showers are expected behind the front along with
MVFR ceilings over the coastal plains. Mainly MVFR vsbys are
expected with the showers. An isolated thunderstorm will be
possible over the coastal plains late tonight also. Strong gusty
north winds will occur behind the cold front with gusts above 35
knots for coastal areas. Conditions will improve to VFR around
daybreak with clearing skies by the afternoon. Winds will subside
during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 444 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...Strong southerly winds are persisting over the
Coastal Bend this afternoon. Extended the Wind Advisory until
00Z Wednesday for Kleberg, Nueces, and San Patricio Counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

A strong LLJ was able to mix to the surface today resulting in very
strong southerly winds across the eastern CWA. Models show winds
decreasing through the evening as a strong cold front approaches S
TX. The cold front is expected to reach the LRD area this evening
before midnight then continue to move south and east reaching the
coastline between 07Z-10Z and south of the coastal waters by 12Z.
Sufficient moisture is progged ahead of the frontal bdry to combine
with the approaching upper low, RRQ of the upper jet and produce sct
to num showers, especially eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. Mainly showers
are expected, however with the upper dynamics along with strong low
level moisture convergence and minimal CAPE, a few thunderstorms
will also be possible with better chances over the waters. Strong
north winds along with colder and drier conditions will filter into
S TX through Wed morning. This will end the rain chances from west
to east and exiting the coastal waters by early afternoon. Winds
relax Wed night and combine with clear skies to allow temps to drop
into the 30s area-wide. A few locations across the northern CWA may
briefly drop to freezing early Thu morning.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

The GFS/NAM/ECMWF deterministic runs predict an upper level
disturbance to move across the Great Lakes region Thursday and
contribute to a weak cold front that is expected the enter the
CWA/MSA by early Friday. This boundary is not expected to trigger
precipitation owing to limited moisture. The ECMWF/GFS predict
another upper system to develop/move SEWD across the Rockies Friday,
then across the SWRN CONUS/TX Saturday/Saturday night. The GFS
predicts increasing moisture in advance of this system with PWAT
values becoming near normal Saturday over the CWA. Expect the
combination of upper forcing/increasing moisture to contribute to
isolated/scattered showers Saturday/Saturday night. Drier Sunday as
the system moves east. The GFS/ECMWF predicts an upper disturbance
to move/develop across the NRN Plains Sunday night, and across
the Great Lakes region Monday. In response, a cold front is
predicted to move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday night/early Tuesday.
The GFS deterministic predicts much colder conditions after
frontal passage, with 546DM 1000-500mb thickness value entering
the CWA by Tuesday afternoon. Owing to anticipated moisture
limitations, no significant precipitation expected over the CWA
along this front.

MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will decrease this evening as a strong cold
front moves into S TX. Strong to very strong offshore flow is
expected to develop Wed morning behind the cold front. Winds are
expected to frequently gust to 35-45 knots, mainly Wed morning.
Advisory conditions are expected by Wed afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers are anticipated Saturday/Saturday night in
response to an upper level disturbance. A cold front, followed by
a polar airmass, may enter the region Tuesday night. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected along this front. At least SCA
conditions are expected after this front moves offshore. Given the
much colder conditions, Gale conditions may occur.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns should remain low through the short term as RH
values remain elevated during the time of strong winds, then the
winds weaken as the RH values drop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    46  58  37  63  43  /  70  30  10   0  10
Victoria          42  53  33  60  37  /  80  30   0   0  10
Laredo            49  61  39  67  42  /  20  10   0   0   0
Alice             46  59  35  65  40  /  60  20   0   0  10
Rockport          44  55  41  59  46  /  80  40  10   0  10
Cotulla           45  59  34  66  38  /  30  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        48  61  35  65  42  /  60  30  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       47  57  45  60  50  /  70  40  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the following
     zones: Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal San
     Patricio...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland San
     Patricio.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to noon CST Wednesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Wednesday For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.