Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 180011 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
711 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to add patchy/areas of fog to the interior CWA
owing to expectation of radiational fog per NAM deterministic
thermodynamic profiles at specific locations, light surface wind,
and SREF probabilities. Note Aviation Discussion below
corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions this evening and early tonight will transition to a
mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities overnight/early
Tuesday morning, especially west of U.S. 77 and east of State
Road 16. Expect a transition to predominate VFR conditions by
mid/late morning Tuesday. Generally light wind overnight/early
Tuesday. Onshore flow increasing to moderate levels Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Mostly quiet weather is in store for tonight along with continuing
warm and muggy conditions. Models keep sufficient moisture in place
for isolated precip tonight, but they differ on location of the
precip. With subsidence taking over in the wake of this morning`s
storm system, am not expecting any additional precip this afternoon
or early evening. By late evening and overnight, some guidance progs
convection in Mexico to skirt the northwest CWA. Any storms that do
move across the COT area should weaken due to increasing CIN. With
storms currently firing in Mexico, went with a sliver of 20 pops
across the NW CWA. Also, kept 20 pops across the coastal waters
where streamer showers will be possible in response to low level
speed convergence. A few models prog light patchy fog to develop
overnight, mainly from ALI to VCT. The forecast soundings look
somewhat conducive for fog to form, but the near surface
dewpoint/temp spread are just a tad too big. Did not mention fog in
the forecast due to the uncertainty, plus patchy light nature of
the fog if it does develop.

Kept 20 pops across the northeast and over the coastal waters Tue
due to sufficient low level moisture and a subtle weak short wave.
Did not go with precip farther west as models show the airmass to be
less unstable than across the northeast and over the waters. Max
temps Tue will be a couple degrees warmer than today due to mid
level ridge beginning to build in from the west. Heat indices will
range from 105 to 109 with some locations across the southern CWA
around 110. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of S TX
Tuesday.

Tue night expected to be quiet in response to the ridging aloft.
Model soundings look a little more conducive for fog to develop
across the inland Coastal Plains. The surface dewpoints are expected
to be slightly higher with slightly drier air aloft, but will hold
off mentioning fog for Tue night at this time.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

A relatively flat upper level subtropical ridge over Northeast
Mexico and South Texas should provide enough subsidence to suppress
convective development through at least Friday. With no rain to cool
us down, temperatures will continue to soar. Daytime high
temperatures will be in the 105-110 degree range in the Rio Grande
Plains, and many locations in the Coastal Plains will also be near
or over the century mark by Thursday. Persistent south-southeast
surface winds will keep enough low-level moisture in the atmosphere
for dangerous heat index values to develop across most of the area,
likely above 110 degrees F for inland locations and between 105 and
110 degrees F along the coast. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
for much of the long term period. Some locations may also approach
Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

The upper ridge will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and
will continue to move eastward through the weekend. During the
weekend, southwesterly flow aloft will become more amplified as an
upper trough moves across the Central Rockies.  The increased deep
layer moisture may lead to renewed chances for convection with the
seabreeze front along the coast beginning on Saturday. However, the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is currently expected to
remain isolated to widely scattered. However, even if most locations
do not receive any rainfall, the increased cloud cover should
provide at least some cooling bringing daytime high temperatures
back to near or slightly above normal by the beginning of next week.

MARINE (Wednesday through Saturday Night)...
Isolated showers will be possible overnight and into Tuesday across
the coastal waters. Drier conditions are expected by Tuesday night.
A generally weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected tonight
through Tuesday night.Strengthening south to southeast winds can
be expected Wednesday through Saturday. Moderate to strong
onshore flow will develop by Wednesday night. The pressure
gradient will continue to increase across the region, and the
winds will likely increase more become strong by Saturday. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the offshore waters
Wednesday night and for the bays and offshore waters Friday night
and into much of Saturday as wind speeds increase to between 20
and 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  95  79  97  80  /  10  10  10   0  10
Victoria          76  93  78  96  79  /  10  20  10   0  10
Laredo            79 104  79 106  81  /  10  10  10   0  10
Alice             77  98  78 102  79  /  10  10  10   0  10
Rockport          81  90  82  91  83  /  10  20  10   0  10
Cotulla           78 103  78 106  80  /  20  10  10   0  10
Kingsville        77  96  78 101  79  /  10  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       82  90  82  91  84  /  10  20  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM/AVIATION


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