Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 031806
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
106 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period at
all sites. However, MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected at VCT
and ALI between 06-15Z. Similar to this morning, drops to LIFR
will be possible at ALI, but confidence is not high enough to
include it at this time. Will have to monitor areas north of the
terminals for convective development this afternoon as outflow may
allow for this activity to reach the terminals after 0Z. As a
result, a 21Z update may be needed. Otherwise, light south to
southeasterly winds are expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Ridging to the west will become more predominant today as the upper
level long wave trough shifts slightly east. The GFS and NAM show an
embedded short wave in the northwest flow aloft tracking southeast
across S TX today. However, a drier and increasingly subsident
airmass will filter across S TX keeping precip out of the forecast.
Did go with 5-10 silent pops for a possible rogue
shower/thunderstorm along the sea breeze. Otherwise, mostly sunny
skies and near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
today.

Near surface moisture will remain in place tonight. Light winds and
drier conditions aloft will be conducive for light patchy fog to
develop overnight/Tue morning, mainly across the inland Coastal
Plains and Brush Country.

The afternoon sea breeze will result in onshore flow around 10 mph
this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Highs will be a couple
of degrees warmer on Tuesday as the ridge builds in from the west.
With elevated humidity and the warmer temps Tues, heat indices will
briefly reach 105 to 109 Tue afternoon.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday Night)...

A mid/upper level ridge sets up over the area near the beginning of
the extended period. The ridging strengthens over the Great Plains
throughout the week. With subsident air in place and minimal
moisture, precipitation chances are limited until the weekend when
moisture begins to push into the area. Models show PWAT values
increasing slightly going into the weekend which could allow for
some precipitation to develop, particularly along the sea breeze.
Heat indices for most of the area range from 105 to 109 with some
places in the Coastal Plains seeing heat index values at or just
above 110.

MARINE...

A very relaxed pressure gradient across the region will maintain a
light and variable flow today. The flow will strengthen slightly to
around 10 knots out of the south and southeast by this evening and
will continue Tuesday. Drier conditions will resume Tuesday as
upper ridging expands over the waters. Weak to moderate onshore
flow will prevail through the week in between low pressure across
West Texas and a high pressure center in the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Rain chances return by Friday and continue through the
weekend as the upper ridge moves north of the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  75  94  75  95  /  10  10  10   0   0
Victoria          97  76  97  75  96  /  10  10  10   0  10
Laredo           101  76 102  76 102  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             99  73  99  74  98  /  10  10   0   0   0
Rockport          93  79  90  82  92  /  10  10  10   0   0
Cotulla          102  75 103  75 103  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  74  97  75  97  /  10  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  78  88  80  91  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

EMF/94...AVIATION


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