Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 271129
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
The leading edge of the frontal push dissipated over South Central
TX early this morning, and the front will reposition upstream and
should reach the Coastal Bend terminals in the early to mid
afternoon hours. The concentration of higher rain chances was thus
narrowed down to some 4 hour TEMPO periods for all but the LRD
site. All sites stand a decent chance to see some showers and
thunderstorm outflow winds, but at nightfall there may be some
reduced activity should the downdrafts help drive the front
through the Rio Grande Valley. In the near term, shifty winds have
made it less obvious that any significant daybreak fog would form,
so VSBYs this morning were kept above 6SM. Isolated TSRA will
remain possible through the night periods tonight, but general
observations of overnight convection from this morning might
suggest the convective allowing models are a bit on the
aggressive side.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 458 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

MSAS analyses depict the frontal boundary moving slowly across
central Texas. This front is expected to enter the CWA late this
afternoon/evening. The combination of this boundary, copious
moisture, and instability (NAM deterministic), will contribute to
isolated/scattered convection this afternoon over the northern
CWA, and areawide tonight/Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

An upper level disturbance and corresponding surface low are
expected over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, then
meander over the eastern CWA/just offshore Wednesday/Thursday, and
combine with copious moisture to generate isolated/scattered
convection. However, anticipate only isolated thunderstorms
Wednesday owing to limited CAPE (GFS deterministic). Efficient
rainfall production is possible Wednesday near the coast (where
WPC has a Marginal Risk of excesssive rainfall.) The GFS/ECMWF
predict the upper low/trough to slowly decay over the region
Friday/Saturday. The combination of this system and lingering
moisture will contribute to at least isolated convection. The
GFS/ECMWF predict no significant upper forcing over the the CWA,
yet predict near/above normal moisture content (PWAT as the
metric) over the NERN CWA Sunday. Will confine isolated convection
to the NERN CWA.

MARINE...

There is an increasing chance for convection today and tonight, as
a frontal boundary, and associated copious moisture, enters the
coastal waters. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF predict an upper
disturbance/associated surface reflection to develop over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight/Tuesday. This system will
contribute to additional convection Tuesday/Wednesday. Lingering
moisture will contriubte to at least isolated convection for the
remainder of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  76  92  75  88  /  20  30  40  20  40
Victoria          96  73  95  74  90  /  60  40  30  20  30
Laredo           101  76  96  76  95  /  10  40  50  20  20
Alice             99  73  94  73  92  /  10  30  50  20  30
Rockport          91  77  93  77  90  /  30  30  40  30  50
Cotulla          101  76  97  76  98  /  30  60  40  20  20
Kingsville        97  74  94  74  90  /  10  20  40  20  30
Navy Corpus       90  79  89  79  87  /  10  30  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION


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