Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 070431 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1031 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

.AVIATION...06Z TAF Issuance

Mostly clear skies will continue through the night in Sunday
morning across south Texas. Light winds over the inland coastal
plains could lead to patchy radiational fog before daybreak Sunday
that would lead to MVFR vsbys from ALI-BEA from 10-13Z Sunday. A
moist layer around 4-5 kft will return into Brush Country Sunday
afternoon providing VFR ceilings through Sunday evening. VFR
conditions will be prevalent through the period with light east
winds Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Scattered mid level clouds persist this afternoon with a pool of
moisture around 850mb. Would expect some thinning of the clouds
this evening with the loss of heating. Overnight, as mid-level
windshift around to the southeast will begin to see more mid
level clouds develop, mainly south. This will likely keep temps up
a degree or two south, but should see better radiational cooling
north to see temps in the lower to mid 40s. Farther south and
toward the coast, temps will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Clouds will continue to increase during the day on Sunday mainly
over the south. With the increased cloud cover do have a slightly
cooler max temp Sunday in the south, but should be generally
70-75 across the region...cooler near the water. Surface ridging
begins to shift east of the area tomorrow with a more easterly
wind developing. Will keep humidity low however. Not as cool
Sunday night with the easterly wind. A weak mid-level shortwave
will approach Sunday night, but dont think moisture is high
enough yet to mention showers.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A mid-level longwave trough across the western CONUS with ridging
developing across Texas will lead to a warming trend across South
Texas through the week. At the surface, persistent onshore flow will
continue to draw in moisture across the region, leading to increased
cloud coverage. Weak to moderate isentropic lifting may result in a
few showers Monday, mainly over the Gulf waters, but possibly over
the Coastal Bend at times. Very little accumulation is expected.

Temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 70s across the Coastal
Bend to the upper 80s/near 90 across the Brush Country by Wednesday.
Overnight lows will also begin to warm through the week, with lows
dipping into the upper 50s early in the week to the mid/upper 60s
late in the work week.

Several areas of low pressure will develop through the week across
the southern high plains which will lead to breezy to windy
conditions here across South Texas. Continued to lean toward
stronger winds in the grids than what NBM has been showing as winds
are not well handled by the models.

Toward the end of the period, models continue to diverge on the
development and progression of the next front. For now, will hold
off on bringing the front through the region, but an increase
chance for rain will be possible toward the weekend.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through mid-afternoon for the
Gulf waters. Northerly winds will continue to subside this
evening, shifting to the east overnight and through the day
Sunday. Weak to moderate easterly flow Sunday night will persist
through Monday before shifting southeasterly Monday night.
Moderate southeast flow on Tuesday is expected to strengthen to
moderate to strong levels by Tuesday night and continue through
Friday. Seas will also build to hazardous levels by mid-week. As a
result, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the latter half
of the work week. There is a slight chance of showers on Monday
for the offshore waters.

MARINE...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    52  69  55  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10
Victoria          43  70  48  72  57  /   0   0  10  10  10
Laredo            49  71  56  76  59  /   0  10  10  10   0
Alice             48  72  53  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
Rockport          55  66  56  69  60  /   0   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           47  73  52  76  58  /   0   0  10  10   0
Kingsville        48  71  53  74  58  /   0  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       58  64  59  69  61  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION


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