Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 220508
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue with light northeasterly winds
becoming more easterly mid day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

00Z aviation discussion follows.

AVIATION...

Continued VFR with light NNE winds tonight veering easterly by
midday Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Skies will continue to clear in the wake of this morning`s cold
front as drier air filters into the region. GOES TPW imagery shows
PWATs from 0.3-0.5" across the Hill Country slowly make their way
down towards South Texas. With significantly drier air and high
pressure in place, temps will fall into the mid 50s across the
Victoria Crossroads and across the Brush Country to the mid 60s
along the immediate coast. Overall confidence is not high but
there is a chance we see some patchy fog develop across areas that
received some rain this morning as the low level moisture would be
in place with drier air aloft. Highs tomorrow will be near normal
with temps in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies. Northerly
winds behind the front will gradually take on a more easterly
component throughout the day tomorrow with moisture slowly
creeping back but not enough to warrant any precip.

Our prolonged coastal flooding event will likely continue through
much of the week as PETSS and ESTOFS output continually show tide
levels exceeding 2ft MSL.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday as surface
high pressure continues to slide east across Texas. As the high
slides east, onshore flow will resume, returning moisture to South
Texas. Moisture does not look favorable until Thursday to return
rain chances. Best rain chances are expected to occur across the
eastern zones, mainly east of Highway 281 for Thursday.

Models continue to diverge with the timing of the next cold front
Thursday night/Friday. This is due to the progression and
development of the mid-level trough and possible cut-off low that
the ECMWF wants to develop late Thursday night. For now, will be
persistent and lean more toward the GFS as even the NAM was showing
hints of maintaining a more longwave mid-level trough versus cutting
off a low. This will lead to a faster timing of the front late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. The ECMWF remains slower
by about 12 hours. Rain chances will increase ahead of the front. A
pre-frontal trough is also expected to develop lending to a east-
northeast shift in the winds as early as Thursday evening.

Drier and much cooler conditions are expected behind this front,
with temperatures cooling into the 60s/70s for Friday. Saturday
morning will be noticeably cooler with morning temps in the low 50s.
Highs for Saturday will gradually warm into the low 70s, with upper
70s to near 80 degrees in store for Sunday. Monday will warm into
the lower 80s area-wide.

As for the coastal flooding, persistent long period swells and the
approaching new moon late this week will maintain elevated tide
levels through the week. PETSS guidance also continues to output
tide levels exceeding 2 ft MSL during times of high tide, so
Coastal Flood Advisories will likely continue through much of the
week.

MARINE...

A moderate to occasionally strong north to northeasterly flow will
develop this evening as the pressure gradient strengthens in the
wake of this morning`s front. Winds will weaken by mid morning
Tuesday over the nearshore waters with winds remaining elevated
over the offshore waters through the evening hours. Onshore flow
begins to return late Tuesday night.

Onshore flow continues through Thursday, with borderline SCA
conditions possible Wednesday. Moisture will increase and return
rain chances by Thursday. Another cold front will push through the
area late Thursday night into Friday morning, tapering off rain
chances through Friday night. Strong north winds are expected
behind this front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  84  70  84  60  /   0  10  20  50  60
Victoria          54  83  65  82  55  /   0   0  20  50  60
Laredo            60  87  68  87  58  /   0   0  10  20  50
Alice             60  86  68  86  60  /   0  10  10  40  50
Rockport          72  82  73  82  62  /   0  10  20  60  60
Cotulla           56  87  67  86  57  /   0   0  10  30  50
Kingsville        63  86  69  86  61  /   0  10  20  50  60
Navy Corpus       74  81  75  81  62  /   0  10  30  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...
     Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

EKZ/90...AVIATION


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