Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 190012 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
712 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Poor aviation conditions will continue across South Texas over the
next 24 hours. Generally MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions can be
expected with periods of drizzle and light rain/showers. Winds
through the period will vary from northwest to northeast, but
speeds should remain 12 knots or less.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...

Deterministic output continues to predict TX/Gulf of Mexico under
the influence of an E-W upper ridge, while an upper disturbance
moves/develops across the NRN Plains/Midwest during the period.
The latter system will contribute to an secondary surge of sfc
high pressure that is expected to approach Central Texas Friday
night. Tonight/Friday, an inverted trough (currently over the MSA
per MSAS) is expected to move to the coast overnight/early Friday
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic.) The combination of this trough and
copious moisture (NAM deterministic) will contribute to rain and
showers late tonight/Friday. QPF per WPC and SREF QPF
probabilities suggest that total rainfall over the ERN CWA may not
approach the values from the FFG Mosaic. Will not issue an FFA.
Persistent moderate/strong N/NE flow over the coastal waters
during the past 24 hours has result in elevated water levels along
the coast. Using Bob Hall Pier and Port Lavaca as proxies for the
immediate coast and bays, respectively, anticipate that water
levels will reach 2ft msl over the bays/intracoastal
waterways/islands tonight/early Friday near times of high tide.
Issued a CFW for the 03-12z Friday period. Friday night, copious
moisture should contribute to additional precipitation at least
over the MSA.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Surface trough will remain along the coast Saturday maintaining the
chance for mainly showers across S TX. Models show drier air
advecting into the northeastern CWA Sun and Mon as the coastal
trough shifts slightly farther southward. This will decrease rain
chances for the Victoria Crossroads, but isentropic lift across the
west will maintain the rain chances for the Rio Grande Plains and
the sfc trough will continue to affect the southern portions of the
coastal bend. Models prog reinforcing high pressure with CAA Mon and
Tue with isentropic lift/rain chances shifting back to the
northeast. Temps are progged to modify by Wed as winds become more
easterly. Models then prog another front/high pressure to build
across the area by Thu with drier air filtering into S TX. Timing
and potential for drier conditions by the end of the extended remain
uncertaint thus did not go as high on pops ahead of this system on
Wed nor as low behind the system on Thu as the superblend output was
forecasting.

MARINE...

Tonight through Friday, SCA conditions expected to continue
overnight/early Friday, mainly due to seas. Most recent wave
heights at 42020/42019 somewhat higher than predicted by WaveWatch
III. Nevertheless, expect wave heights to fall below SCA
criterion over the nearshore waters by current expiration time of
the SCA for the nearshore (10z Friday.) sea height might remain
around SCA criterion over the offshore waters through Friday
afternoon, yet will retain the current 15z Friday expiration owing
to uncertainty.

Saturday through Thursday, Advisory conditions are expected over
the weekend in response to a strengthening coastal trough. The
pressure gradient is forecast to weaken Mon through Tue with
northeasterly winds becoming weak to moderate then becoming more
easterly by Wednesday. Minor tidal overflow is expected to
persist over the weekend in response to a mod to strong
northeasterly flow. Winds are expected to decrease the first part
of next week, but will remain east to northeast which may keep
tides elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  77  67  76  65  /  70  70  60  50  40
Victoria          61  76  64  73  61  /  60  70  50  40  20
Laredo            56  70  64  71  62  /  60  50  40  50  50
Alice             59  74  66  74  63  /  60  60  50  50  40
Rockport          66  78  68  76  66  /  80  70  60  50  30
Cotulla           58  68  64  71  61  /  70  50  40  50  50
Kingsville        60  77  67  75  65  /  70  60  50  50  50
Navy Corpus       68  79  71  78  69  /  80  70  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Friday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun
     Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
     Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
     Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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