730
FXUS64 KCRP 220523
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1123 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Freezing temperatures again tonight and Wednesday night.

The winter weather mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow in some
locations, has ended. Skies are expected to clear from west to east
through the evening hours as high pressure settles across the
region. The strong northerly winds this morning are decreasing and
should become light by tonight. This set up of light winds and
clearing skies will lead to efficient radiational cooling overnight.
This will result in temperatures dipping into the upper teens across
the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads, and to the mid 20s along
the Rio Grande and along the coastal areas. Islands will see temps
between 30-34 degrees. Thus, a Freeze Warning will be in effect for
all of S TX tonight. Main concern is for any roads that remain wet,
may refreeze tonight leading to dangerous driving conditions due to
patches of black ice. Also, sidewalks could be icy. Other concerns
will be for people, pets, plants, and pipes. A Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect through tonight due to the windchill or apparent
temperatures expected to be in the 16-25 range.

A light southerly flow is progged to develop Wednesday leading to
increasing low level moisture and slightly warmer temperatures by
Wednesday afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s under partly cloudy skies.

Another surge of high pressure and cold air advection Wednesday
night will lead to another night of freezing temperatures across
most of S TX. However, lows will be 6-10 degrees warmer than
tonight`s forecasted values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Freezing temperatures to continue Thursday night

- Warm-up into the 70s by this weekend

A broad deep trough will continue over the eastern CONUS Thursday
and Friday maintaining cool conditions over South Texas to cap the
week. Moderate cold advection will hold max temperatures to the 50s
both days. One last freeze event can be expected with this event
Thursday Night with lows still dipping into the 30s on Friday Night
but min values should remain above freezing. A passing S/W will
bring a good chance for cold rain over the gulf waters Thursday
and Thursday Night.

A mid level ridge will begin to build over South Texas
Saturday/Sunday bringing southwesterly low level winds and a much
desired warming trend. Max temps will warm to near normal for this
time of year meaning mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday and 70s over most
locations Sunday. There won`t be much sun however as strong moisture
advection will interact with a passing S/W to bring an abundance of
clouds and a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers across the
Victoria Crossroads area Saturday Night and Sunday. Another cool
front will sneak into South Texas next Monday with cooler
conditions persisting through midweek under cloudy skies and low
chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through this TAF
period. Generally light and variable winds will continue through the
day on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Northerly winds and seas will continue to decrease through the
evening hours. However, advisory conditions are expected to continue
across the nearshore waters through midnight and the offshore
waters through mid morning Wednesday, mostly due to seas. A weak
to moderate offshore flow early Wednesday morning will become
light from the east and southeast by Wednesday night. A weak to
moderate northerly flow redevelops Wednesday night due to another
surge of high pressure. Moderate to strong northeast flow will
return Thursday in the wake of our next front with a chance for
cold rain Thursday and Thursday Night. Winds will weaken and shift
back to the southeast Friday afternoon as temperatures warm back
into the 70s. Just as fast as the winds weaken, they will pick
back up with strong southerly flow expected to develop this
weekend which could lead to our next Small Craft Advisory period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    36  22  51  33 /  80   0   0   0
Victoria          37  17  51  27 /  80   0   0   0
Laredo            41  24  54  32 /  30   0   0   0
Alice             36  19  51  30 /  70   0   0   0
Rockport          38  28  51  35 /  80   0   0   0
Cotulla           42  22  54  30 /  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        35  20  51  31 /  80   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       36  32  51  40 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>344-346-347.

     Freeze Warning until 11 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...KRS/98