Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 062346 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020


Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.



Showers occurring, as of writing, around VCT. Will expect these
showers to continue for the next couple of hours, with CIGs/VSBYs
briefly lowering within and near showers. Otherwise, expect CIGs
to lower to MVFR levels through 06Z for all sites, then again
lower to IFR levels after 06Z with BR at IFR/LIFR possible
through the night. Improvements to CIGs/VSBYs expected around
15-16Z, although MVFR CIGs may linger until 18Z. BKN-OVC should
continue after 18Z, but with cloud deck above 3500 FT. General
E-ly flow this evening around 5-10 KTs to become light and
variable after 06Z. General SE wind 5-10 KTs to redevelop after
18Z TUE.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain
possible this afternoon and evening as a warm front continues to
make its way through the region. Winds have been gradually
transitioning to the east throughout the day and are expected to
shift southeastward overnight as the warm front lifts farther north.
This will in turn allow for deeper moisture to return along with
warmer temperatures. The combination of the increased low level
moisture and lighter winds will be conducive for the formation of
patchy to areas of fog tonight into early Tuesday morning. A
couple of weak disturbances embedded in the southwestern flow
aloft will provide for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop again on Tuesday. Best rain and storm
chances can be expected across the western half of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon due to increased instability and a weaker cap.
Temperatures will be warm through the period with lows in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s, and highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

A broad upper level ridge will be over south Texas on Wednesday.
This will lead to above normal temperatures and dry conditions with
highs in the 90s for most of the area except for the coastal region.
A mid level short wave trough will move northeast out of Coahuila
into the Rio Grande Plains into the Hill Country Wednesday night.
Afternoon convection that forms over the higher terrain in Mexico
could move northeast across portions of the Brush Country Wednesday

A strong upper low over southern California on Wednesday will move
east into northern Arizona on Thursday. GFS and ECMWF continue to
diverge on handling of the upper low after that with the GFS showing
the upper low shearing apart as it moves into the southern high
plains Friday with a secondary low forming near northern Baja
California. ECMWF keeps the low anchored over the Desert Southwest
through Friday before kicking out across the southern Rockies on

Confidence is improving for possible strong to severe convection
over the area on Thursday. Deep moisture will be in place with
precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. Air mass is expected to
become moderately unstable over south Texas as another cold front
pushes south through central Texas Thursday. 12Z NAM shows MLCAPE
values from 2500-4000 J/kg over the region. Models are similar in
showing a strong short wave trough moving through the Big Bend
toward the Hill Country Thursday. Raised PoPs to likely across the
northern counties to 40-50 percent for southern counties on
Thursday. Threat for severe storms appears to be increasing for
Thursday with deep layer shear of 50-70 knots in place. Expect
threat for scattered strong to severe storms to continue into the
evening hours ahead of the front.

12Z NAM is much faster than the other models in bringing a cold
front into the region Thursday evening while the GFS/ECMWF show the
front arriving after 12Z Friday morning. Went with the NBM with
timing of the front which brings it in before 12Z Friday.
With southwest flow aloft and possibility of another round of upper
level short wave troughs moving out of northeast Mexico, should see
elevated convection north of the front affect the region Friday into
Friday night. Expect the boundary will retreat as a warm front on
Saturday as the mid level low kicks out into the southern plains.
Better chances for convection will be over the coastal plains on
Saturday. Drier conditions should arrive on Sunday with the passage
of the Pacific front. Models are not consistent by Monday on whether
another cold front will reach the area with the GFS bringing it
through the area while the ECMWF is well to the north in north
Texas. For now, went with NBM with similar temperatures to Sunday
for Monday.

Tide levels are expected to remain elevated Thursday and Friday and
probably into Saturday as winds turn northeast. ETSS/PETSS show tide
levels getting above 2 feet around time of high tide Thursday and
especially Friday morning. Will likely have minor coastal flood
issues for the latter part of the week.


Winds will continue to shift to the southeast and south overnight
remaining at weak to moderate levels. Patchy to areas of fog can
be expected over the bays and nearshore waters overnight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
Tuesday. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue Wednesday
through Thursday. The next cold front will move into the coastal
waters late Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible with the front. A weak to
moderate northeast flow is expected behind the front Friday. An
easterly flow will develop by Friday night with the frontal
boundary returning as a warm front Saturday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday through
Saturday. A Pacific cold front will swing through the area on
Sunday with rain chances diminishing as drier air moves in with a
weak to moderate offshore flow. A weak onshore flow will return by


Corpus Christi    71  87  72  88  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          69  86  71  88  70  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            70  88  71  92  73  /  30  20  10  10  20
Alice             69  89  70  92  71  /  20  20  10  10  10
Rockport          72  83  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           69  88  70  93  71  /  20  20  10  10  30
Kingsville        70  89  71  91  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       73  82  72  82  73  /  10  10  10  10  10





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