232
FXUS64 KCRP 122337
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
637 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

- Slight Risk for Severe Storms Monday

The main challenge in the short term period is whether or not we
get convection Monday afternoon and if we do, how strong will it
be. Aloft, a closed H5 low will be passing north of the area with
a shortwave kink in the flow into east and south Texas. We`ll be
holding onto a stout cap much of the day here, but there is a
window in the late afternoon into the evening where surface
temperatures could warm enough to break it. Confidence isn`t very
high, and meso- models haven`t been very robust with reflectivity
forecasts, but...we do have plenty (+5k J/kg) of CAPE to utilize,
good 0-6km shear and steep lapse rates, so any storms that can
develop have the potential to quickly get strong to severe. Large
hail would be a concern within any supercells that develop early.
Later in the evening could see more of a wind threat if a squall
moves in from storms north and west. Will cloud cover, moisture
and smoke allow the temperatures to warm to convective temps? That
will be the key for Monday.

Otherwise, pretty quiet weather through the short term period low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid and upper 70s with some
light fog possible toward morning, but only minor vis reductions
expected. High temperatures likely to top 100 along the Rio Grande
tomorrow, and in the 90s for much of the rest of the area. Heat
index values will generally be under 110, but portions of the
southern Coastal Plains could reach it. There`ll be some
consideration for a small heat advisory, but will hold off for now
as it`s pretty localized currently and HeatRisk tops out only
moderate. Cooler temperatures are expected Monday night as
somewhat drier air moves in behind a weak boundary that approaches
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance for showers and storms Wednesday Wednesday night,
increasing to a moderate chance over the Victoria Crossroads
Thursday

-Dangerous heat is possible on Thursday for the southern inland
Coastal Bend

Low level moisture will increase Tuesday as onshore flow continues,
but no showers are expected through Tuesday night. A series of mid-
level disturbances will move across the area through the end of the
week. Expect a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Thursday with these shortwaves, though deep
moisture could limit rainfall. Models push a cold front toward South
Texas Friday and into the weekend, which could result in convection,
but the southward extent of this front is questionable. Will
continue as the previous forecast with silent PoPs.

High temperatures will continue to be warm through the upcoming
week, with highs ranging from 90 along the coast to around 100
across the Rio Grande Plains. As moisture increases, heat index
values will rise with dangerous heat index values possible on
Thursday when heat index values from 110-114 across the southern
inland Coastal Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

As has been happening over the last few days, with the low level
moisture and the smoke from fires in Mexico, haze will be the
prominent obstruction, mainly overnight as the VSBYs fall at the
TAF sites to MVFR, with only a <25% chance that they fall to IFR.
Otherwise, like the last few days CIGs will fall during this
evening, and overnight bottom out around 1000feet give or take a
200 feet, and primarily near VCT where the chance of IFR
conditions is 40-50%. ALI and CRP are 20-30%, and LRD and COT are
< 10%. As was with today, low confidence on convection with spotty
convection possible, but with the cloud cover/smoke, will we get
warm enough to spark convection? The chances are several sites are
around 30% so have gone with VCTS, during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue as we head
into the work week. Increased moisture and a passing upper level
disturbance will promote a 20-40% chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday, especially north of Port Aransas. A few
storms may be strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening.
Light to moderate onshore flow will continue through the work
week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  93  73  93 /  10  30  10   0
Victoria          76  89  69  93 /  10  40  10   0
Laredo            78 103  73  99 /  10  20   0  10
Alice             76  98  72  95 /  10  30  10  10
Rockport          78  89  74  90 /  10  30  10   0
Cotulla           78  99  70  98 /  20  30   0   0
Kingsville        78  95  73  92 /  10  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       80  90  76  89 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JSL/86