402
FXUS64 KCRP 181120
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
620 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A Elevated risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat
  today and Sunday across most of South Texas

A 500 mb ridge is just to the west of the south Texas with the axis
running roughly from TOP to AMA to ELP and south into northern
Mexico. The ridge is expected to move east into south Texas by the
end of the day on Sunday. At the sfc, there is a large, sprawling
sfc high that reaches down into the Coastal Bend from just off the
east coast of FL. This set up will keep the region precipitation
free, and warm. Of course, it`s the warmth that is of concern as we
head into this week`s forecast. For today and Sunday, the high
temperatures will be have roughly the same high temperatures with
around 90 along the Coastal Bend to around 100 along the Rio Grande
Plains. The moisture is the concern with the heat, which will
produce heat indices above 100 again today and Sunday, but will
remain below 110F both days. The new heat risk map put together by
the NWS and CDC shows minor to moderate risks of heat related
impacts. There could be some heat related issues, but for most, it
will just feel hot.

The only other issue to watch is fog. With the rain from today, our
normal fog prone areas (ALI and VCT) will have fog, as the fog has
already formed around the Victoria Crossroads and the eastern part
of the Brush Country around Alice. The guidance (NBM) would suggest
that the lowest VSBYs would be toward 12z/Saturday, but considering
the past week, when we have had fog, it would form and then dissipate
with no noticeable affects by 12z. So will have to monitor it and
decide if a SPS or an Advisory will be necessary. Saturday
night/Sunday looks similar as the light winds, clear skies and
residual moisture looks like it there would be a 50% chance of
VSBYs<5 miles Sunday morning as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Thursday across the
Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains

- Heat impacts may worsen Friday over portions of the Brush Country

NWP model runs continue to predict the development of a warmer
airmass over the region beginning Monday, manifested by an upper
ridge that builds over the region. The upper ridge is predicted to
persist and remain quasi-stationary during the remainder of the
period. A progressive pattern is expected to remain over nearly all
of the CONUS, except for southern Texas, with upper disturbances
moving close yet generally remaining north of the CWA. These
disturbances will contribute to persistent onshore flow and
increasing moisture over the region during the period. The GFS/ECMWF
predict PWAT values to remain above normal over the CWA during the
period. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will contribute
to an inversion which will suppress convection, moisture
notwithstanding. Thus, no significant precipitation expected during
the period. The combination of heating and greater near surface
moisture will increase maximum Heat Index values over the CWA. WPC
continues to predict a 40-70 percent chance that the maximum Heat
Advisory threshold of 110F will be met over the Brush Country and
southern Coastal Plains Monday through Thursday. The GFS/ECMWF
predict PWAT values to increase even further Friday, potentially
resulting in even higher maximum Heat Index values. WPC predicts a
40-70 percent chance that the Excessive Heat Warning threshold of
115F will be met Friday over portions of the Brush Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

High pressure is over South Texas this morning, and the
combination of light winds, clear skies, and moisture from rain
yesterday is helping to get fog going over the Victoria Crossroads
and parts of the Brush Country. The fog is impacting the VSBY at
VCT and ALI, and if it wasn`t for the high clouds, probably CRP as
well. So have MVFR with some tempo IFR VSBYs (CIGs too) for ALI
and VCT. Unsure about CRP at this point, since some clouds could
move in from the Gulf overnight and keep the fog from forming. COT
and LRD may have some low clouds that move into the region (MVFR),
so will leave any VSBY changes out for not.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will remain weak at 10 knots or lower today with the winds
shifting to the southeast by tonight. Weak onshore flow Sunday
strengthens late in the day, making the bays a bit choppy. Warm
conditions are expected Monday through Thursday, with weak to
moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index values 90-95F Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          92  73  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           100  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          89  77  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           99  74 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  76  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  78  89  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ231>234-
     245>247-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...JSL/86