050
FXUS64 KCRP 042348
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts on Wednesday.

- Marginal Risk for severe weather Wednesday through Wednesday
  night.

- Minor coastal flooding and High risk of rip currents along Gulf-
  facing beaches tonight through Wednesday.

A trough extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley southward
into northeastern Mexico will allow for a mid-level heights drop
across the area tonight through Wednesday night. A few shortwaves
on the far western extent of the trough are progged to swing
through our region during the short-term which will bring a chance
for convection across the area. An MCS is expected to develop
over eastern portions of the state, but the question is how far
west and south will storms form. Uncertainty at the moment is very
high with models diverging significantly on its evolution and
progression. NBM has maintained generally rain-free conditions
through most of the short range with only 20% PoPs into the
tomorrow night period. Since uncertainty is so high, have gone
ahead and leaned towards the NBM, but understanding that changes
to the current forecast could occur rapidly once storms begin to
develop. The most active period will be Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night and SPC has included us under a Marginal risk for
severe weather as plenty of instability (MUCAPE 4000-6000 J/kg)
and moisture (PWATs up to 1.8-1.9") will be present for convective
development. DCAPE will also be very high (above 1000 J/kg).
Having said all of that, very large hail and strong winds will be
possible with the storms that are able to develop. Keep an eye on
the forecast for the latest updates.

Assuming convection takes a while to reach the area tomorrow, high
temperatures will be hot again with heat indices exceeding 115
degrees at some locations. A Heat Advisory is likely to be needed
for tomorrow covering most of the CWA, with inland portions of the
southern counties likely needing another Excessive Heat Warning.
The HeatRisk for tomorrow remains at Major to Extreme levels,
therefore the population should take the appropriate precautions
if spending any time outdoors.

In addition, another round of minor coastal flooding is in the
cards for the tonight to early tomorrow`s high tide cycle. Tides
are forecast to again near 2.0 ft MSL with water likely reaching
the dunes. Based on camera observations this morning the water almost
made it to the road at Whitecap Beach, and a repeat of that is
expected overnight. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 10
PM tonight through 1 PM Wednesday. A High risk of rip currents
remains in effect through Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat continues through Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding and rip currents expected to continue
  through Thursday.

The upcoming forecast period for South Texas will predominately
feature hot and dry conditions (muggy at the surface) with low end
chances (15-20%) for showers/thunderstorms early next week. The
primary concern remains the excessive heat. Please continue to
take proper precautions and preparations for the heat and stay
tuned for further updates.

The long-term forecast period for South Texas features a dynamic
synoptic pattern resulting in varying conditions. Initially, a mid-
level high will be positioned east of the Four Corners, while a mid-
level low stretches from north of MN to the Great Lakes. Additionally,
a disturbance in the eastern Pacific is situated just west of the
southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.

As the period progresses, the aforementioned mid-level high will
slide southeast, reaching the north-central Gulf by late this week.
Concurrently, another mid-level high will move eastward over central
Mexico, building over South Texas. The eastern PAC disturbance will
ride up and over the Mexico high, bringing considerable PVA across
the Southern Plains. Currently this PVA is projected to remain north
of our CWA, thus limiting our precipitation chances.

Heat:

We start out the period hot and end a little less hot! On Thursday,
Heat Advisory conditions are expected with Heat Indices in the 110-
115 degree range. Heat Index values ranging in the 105-110 range
from Friday through the end of the period.

Precipitation:

Currently have low end 15-20% chances for showers/thunderstorms
mainly northeast towards the Victoria Crossroads next Monday and
Tuesday in response to the aforementioned mid-level disturbance.

Coastal Flooding:

Coastal Flooding is expected through at least Thursday according
to the P-ETSS guidance. Minor Coastal Flooding is possible as
water could reach the dunes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions currently prevail with upper level anvil clouds
spreading over Deep South Texas from storms over the Sierra
Madres. Southeasterly winds around 15 knots gusting to around 25
knots will continue over the Coastal Plains through this evening,
then decrease to around 10-12 knots overnight. MVFR ceilings will
return late this evening and continue through tomorrow morning,
with occasional occurrences over COT/LRD. Could see a mix of
patchy fog and haze drop vsby at ALI/VCT during the early morning
hours. Gusty southeasterly winds around 25 knots will return in
the afternoon across the Coastal Plains.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A moderate to strong onshore flow and increased seas will continue
to lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions through Wednesday
morning. The onshore flow will diminish to more moderate levels
thereafter, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through the weekend
and into next week. There are low chances for showers and thunderstorms
(15-30%) early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  95  78  96 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          78  94  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Laredo            80 108  79 105 /  10  10  20  10
Alice             80 103  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
Rockport          82  92  80  92 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           81 106  77 103 /  10  10  20   0
Kingsville        82 101  79  97 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  81  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239-240-
     244>247-342>344-346-347.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ241>243.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
     Wednesday for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...EMF/94