Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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175 FXUS64 KCRP 100809 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 309 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat-related impacts are expected today and Tuesday across South Texas. - Low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be 2-4 degrees cooler across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country today and Tuesday. This is due to mid level temperatures being a few degrees cooler with decreasing thickness values. Eastern portions of S TX will generally see similar highs each day. Models also show dewpoints being a couple of degrees lower, thus allowing lows to drop into the mid 70s across the interior portions of S TX tonight. The cooler temperatures and dewpoints will lead to lower Heat Index values each afternoon. Most locations are expected to remain below 107 heat index. A few places could briefly approach 110 across the southern Coastal Bend. Models continue to indicate that a baggy upper level trough currently along the Rio Grande and W TX, will shift east across the region through the day. Embedded short waves will provide upper support for convection, but models are having a hard time with timing and location of the short waves. This is leading to a wide range of where and how much rain moves into or develops across S TX. Convection currently north of Del Rio, could produce an outflow boundary that reaches S TX later this morning. If CIN values have decreased sufficiently by then, the boundary may interact with 2 inch PWATs to produce showers and thunderstorms. Additional outflow boundaries could also lead to convection through the day. Due to uncertainty on timing and location of convection for today, have broadbrushed PoPs across S TX with a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. By tonight into Tuesday, the upper trough will shift east of the area leading to a northwest flow aloft across S TX. Models prog embedded short waves to track south to southeast across the region. Models also show less available moisture, thus rain chances are low (10-20%) for tonight and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday through Friday, increasing to moderate to major this weekend - Increased rain chances (20-35%) late Tuesday night through Wednesday An amplified mid-level shortwave will move from North Texas into South Texas Tuesday night through Wednesday. This is a noticeable change southwestward than previous runs, putting South Texas in a more favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance is in good agreement with PWAT values increasing over 2.0" (>75th percentile) interacting with positive vorticity advection aloft and residual outflow boundaries from nearby storms. Due to these reasons, have increased PoPs to 20-35% from convection moving over the Hill Country southward into South Texas late Tuesday night with additional development during the day on Wednesday. Greatest rain chances will lie over the Victoria Crossroads where instability is greatest (NAM near 2000 J/kg CAPE) and the cap is weakest. The shortwave will move south of us Thursday into Thursday night and lead to ridging Friday through the weekend as the center of high pressure moves from the southern Great Plains to the SE CONUS; whereas a mid-level low or inverted trough positions over the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, rain chances late in the week remain over the Gulf waters but will closely monitor for any changes of the mid- level flow. Fortunately, 1000-700mb temperatures will remain near normal through the work week and lead to generally minor to moderate heat-related impacts (instead of the major to extreme like we`ve had to deal with recently). Heat index values are expected to peak around 105 through the week with closer to 110 on Sunday. Probabilities of heat index values 110 or greater has dramatically decreased, in fact the 100 member ensemble of long range ensembles (LREF) consisting of GEFS, GEPS, and ENS contains a less than 5% probability of reaching 110 any day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the morning, when brief MVFR ceilings are possible at all terminals. VCT and ALI may also see some brief MVFR visibility. A line of ongoing convection to the north will continue it`s trek toward the area, but models currently indicate it weakening as it moves into South Texas. COT is the most likely site to get any convection, so have a mention of VCTS around 12Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected each afternoon with winds decreasing to weaker levels overnight into the morning hours. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms today through Tuesday, then a low chance daily the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 78 94 78 / 30 20 20 10 Victoria 95 75 94 74 / 30 20 20 30 Laredo 99 78 101 77 / 30 20 0 10 Alice 97 75 97 75 / 20 20 20 10 Rockport 92 80 93 80 / 30 10 20 10 Cotulla 97 78 100 77 / 30 20 0 30 Kingsville 96 76 96 77 / 20 20 20 10 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 82 / 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE/81 LONG TERM....EMF/94 AVIATION...LS