563
FXUS64 KCRP 191126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Widespread Critical fire weather conditions today, and Elevated to
  Critical on Thursday.

- Breezy to windy this morning, mainly out west.

A cold front will move across South Texas this morning bringing much
drier conditions behind it and leading to Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns (refer to the Fire Weather Discussion for more
information). Surface high pressure will settle over the area
through the period maintaining generally quite conditions and
below to near normal temperatures. Winds will be elevated this
morning, particularly out west as a 925 mb jet develops in the
wake of the front. Gusts to near 35-40 mph cannot be ruled out
over portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, with
gusts to 30 mph elsewhere today into tonight. A 10-15 mph
northerly flow can be expected on Thursday under mostly clear
skies. Temperatures today will remain rather warm despite the
frontal passage as the stronger CAA will be arriving into the
overnight period. Highs will range from the mid 70s along the
coast to the mid 80s inland. Lows tonight are forecast to drop
into the mid 40s to mid 50s range from north to south. Thursday is
shaping to be much nicer with highs in the 70s areawide. Rain
chances will be minimal this morning (<10% inland), and near zero
the rest of the cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Key Message:

- Elevated fire weather conditions will likely persist over the
  Brush Country into early next week

Quasi-zonal flow aloft and onshore flow will dominate Friday through
Sunday before a mid-level low over the Great Lakes swings eastward
and sends a weak cold front into South Texas Sunday night into
Monday. This front will struggle to pass completely through the area
before returning northward as a warm front Monday night into
Tuesday. A brief period with the surface boundary draped across the
area Sunday night through Monday and PWAT values near 1.5" (>75th
percentile), will allow for our only mentionable very low shower and
thunderstorm chances (10-20%). Very low confidence in any
thunderstorms with a strong cap in place but the Victoria Crossroads
would be the most favorable area of development if any.

High temperatures will generally range from around 80 along the
coast to the lower 90s over the Brush Country. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Elevated fire weather conditions
will remain the primary concern over the Brush Country through
Tuesday as afternoon relative humidity drops below 30% in
conjunction with southeasterly winds of 10-20 mph and an Energy
Release Component (ERC) over the 90th percentile.

Just beyond the long term into the middle of next week, a mid-level
trough extending into northern Mexico may set the stage for our next
chances of rain over South Texas. Rain that we desperately need with
worsening drought conditions in place. There are notable model
discrepancies being more than 7 days out with the GEFS being the
most bullish with rainfall amounts. It`s too early to speculate any
amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A mixture of MVFR to VFR conditions is ongoing across area
terminals, with the lower ceilings observed along the eastern
sites. A return to VFR is expected by mid morning, with VFR
conditions prevailing through the rest of the forecast cycle. A
cold front is drifting across the region this morning, with winds
shifting to the west and northwest behind it. Winds will be light
through mid morning as the front moves across, but will increase
to around 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots by the afternoon.
Winds are forecast to briefly decouple early this evening, before
restrengthening to above 12 knots late tonight as surface high
pressure surges over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A south to southwesterly strong breeze (BF-6) with Small Craft
Advisory conditions can be expected early this morning across the
coastal waters. Winds will decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze
(BF-3 and 4) by late morning and shift northwestward, as a cold
front slides across. However, seas up to 7 feet are forecast to
linger over the offshore waters into the early afternoon hours.
Northerly winds will strengthen to a strong breeze to near Gale
(BF-6 and 7) again late tonight into Thursday morning, with gusts
to Gale possible and seas up to 11 feet. A gentle to moderate
southeasterly breeze of 8-16 knots will persist through Sunday
before a weak cold front shifts winds out of the east to northeast
Monday. There is a very low, 10-20 percent chance of showers
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Widespread Critical fire weather conditions are in store today
across South Texas in the wake of a passing cold front early this
morning. Winds are forecast to shift northwesterly and strengthen to
around 20-25 mph, with gusts to near 35 mph. Relative humidity
values will be as low as 6% across the Rio Grande Plains and between
a 10-15% along the coast. Fuels will remain critically dry with
Energy Release Component (ERC) values in the 90-99th percentile. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Texas with the
exception of the barrier islands from 7 AM through at least 9 PM
today. In addition, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the
barrier islands for Elevated fire weather concerns. Winds along the
immediate coast will be around 10-20 mph, with minimum relative
humidity values at near 20-30%. Elevated to potentially critical
fire weather conditions can be expected again on Thursday with
minimum relative humidity values around 10-30% for much of South
Texas along with critically dry fuels. The limiting factor tomorrow
will be the lighter winds.

Elevated fire weather conditions will likely persist through
Tuesday over the Brush Country as afternoon relative humidity
drops below 30% in conjunction with winds of 10-20 mph and higher
gusts. In addition, ERC values will remain over the 90th
percentile. Friday and Saturday will present the greatest fire
weather concern in the long term, with southeasterly winds around
20 mph and higher gusts. Borderline elevated fire weather
conditions will be in place elsewhere eastward, with relative
humidity between 30-40% and moderate winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  50  74  50 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          83  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            85  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             87  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          83  52  73  57 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           86  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        87  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  55  69  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>344-346-347.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...ANM/88