Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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522 FXUS64 KCRP 031814 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 114 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Key Messages: -Major to extreme heat risk today -Low chance of showers and storms this evening Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave moving across the Southern Plains as a ridge weakens aloft. This weakness in the ridge will allow for another shortwave to pass through within the westerly flow aloft. Convection will fire across the Sierra Madre late this afternoon and move towards the Rio Grande. The latest CAMs have been fairly consistent with bringing a decaying cluster of showers and storms across the Brush Country and Coastal Plains. However, we`ve seen this convection fizzle out before reaching the border. For now, have a slight chance mentioned during the late afternoon and evening hours. In the wake of the shortwave, upper level ridging begins to build in. The main concern as we kick off the work week is our increasing risk of heat-related impacts. High temps today will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. We look to add on a couple of degrees tomorrow. These warm temps and increasing low level moisture will lead to heat indices in the 110-114 range today and the 110-118 range on Tuesday. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM to 7 PM today with another Advisory likely needed tomorrow. At this point, wouldn`t be surprised to see an Excessive Heat Warning tomorrow, especially for the Southern Coastal Bend. Went ahead and extended the High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday evening. A strong southeasterly flow, approaching new moon, and elevated swells will be enough to maintain dangerous swimming conditions along our coast line. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat continues Mid to upper level ridging builds across the Southern Plains through the middle of the week. This will maintain hot and uncomfortable conditions through Friday. There is a medium chance of heat indices exceeding 110 and a low to medium chance of exceeding 115 daily through Thursday. By Friday, the ridge weakens slightly as a trough digs across the Midwest. This will allow for some slight relief as we head into the weekend. While temps remain warm, some drier air will filter into the region which will help keep heat indices in the 105-109 range over the course of the weekend. Rain chances look very minimal through much of the long term forecast. However, if we want to find some sign of hope, you could find a ripple in the H5 flow along the eastern periphery of the ridge axis Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, we will be very close to reaching convective temps so we could squeeze out a rogue shower or storm but confidence is not very high in this outcome. Lastly, minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tide through the work week. A persistent strong southeasterly flow, combined with the approaching new moon and elevated swells will help drive water up our Gulf-facing beaches. Latest PETSS guidance hints at waters nearing 2ft MSL both Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Looks like with the current pattern we will end up with VFR days (CIGS and VSBYs) and MVFR nights. The sfc high is east along the Atlantic coast, with low pressure in the lee of the Sierra Madre is producing South to Southeast winds. Expect VFR CIGs and VSBYs through about 00z/Tue, and then the haze will begin to thicken as the moisture begins to pool in the lower levels overnight. The haze would be expected to lower the VSBYs to around 4sm, and with it, the CIGs would fall to MVFR. By the way that the last few days have gone, the VSBY and CIGs won`t improve to VFR until 15z/Tues. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight as an upper level disturbance passes through. Otherwise, a moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow will persist through the middle of week. Winds will increase over the southern bays and waters each afternoon, leading to potential Small Craft Advisory conditions. There is increasing confidence that a SCA will be needed today but not high enough to issue at this time. Will have the dayshift monitor trends through the day. Onshore flow gradually weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 94 81 96 / 20 10 10 10 Victoria 79 93 79 96 / 20 0 10 10 Laredo 80 106 80 106 / 20 10 10 10 Alice 79 100 79 101 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 82 92 82 92 / 20 0 10 10 Cotulla 80 105 80 105 / 20 10 10 10 Kingsville 81 98 80 100 / 20 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 84 91 83 92 / 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>243. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...JSL/86