939
FXUS63 KDDC 270140
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
840 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two rounds of storms, which are marginally severe, are
  expected to enter Kansas from Colorado Wednesday and late
  Wednesday night.

- Thursday through Saturday, a broad pattern favorable for MCSs
  will take hold providing multiple rounds for storm systems.

- The end of the period after the weekend will see the previous
  pattern clear with the potential (>65% via ensembles) of 100F
  temperatures returning to the forecast area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

KDDC radar, lightning detection networks, and infrared satellite
imagery indicate weakening thunderstorms limping into far SW KS
(Morton county and vicinity) as of 830 pm. Storms earlier
produced outflow wind gusts near 60 mph at Springfield, Baca
county Colorado. The various parameters for thunderstorm
maintenance across SW KS are quite weak, but not completely
inhibitive, such that sub severe showers and thunderstorms are
forecast by the models to phase eastward through sunrise
Thursday. Activity is already redeveloping on the older activity
outflow, and this process of maintenance is expected to
continue. Retained pops in the chance category, with a midlevel
cloud deck and scattered rain showers expected early Thursday
morning. Instability will remain limited, with CAPE generally
less than 1000 J/kg, so only some locally heavier rainfall and
embedded lightning is expected. 18z NAM shows the shortwave
responsible for the showers over SW KS about 10 am, then moving
eastward into eastern Kansas Thursday afternoon. Strong lee
troughing will reestablish over eastern Colorado, supporting a
traditionally windy western Kansas day, with south winds
averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A large upper-level ridge continues to dominate the pattern.
Despite this, Wednesday into Thursday will feature two rounds
of precipitation chances (25% and 55% from ensembles
respectively). CAMs have initiation around 20Z located
approximately at the CO/OK/NM border. The 12Z NAM place large
amounts of CVA and vertical velocity ahead of those storms in
far SE Colorado into SW Kansas. As the mid- level support
combats the unfavorable conditions aloft, CAMs produce various
solutions for the storms as they enter Kansas. The HRRR shows
the storms struggling to make it past the border while the
NAMNST, HRW FV3, and HRW WRF- NSSL all has storms clipping the
far SW couple counties. The only concurrence the models hold has
been a consistent downward trend of these storms the last
couple days. CAPE values >2000 J/kg and effective shear values
>40 knots would be sufficient in supporting brief severe storm
development/maintenance. DCAPE values nearing 2000 J/kg and
steep low level lapse rates of 9.5 C/km contribute to winds
being the primary threat. However, the associated severe
potential is quite limited due to the lifespan of the storms
after entering the forecast area.

The second round of storms appear more robust, but similar
disagreement exists between CAMs; around 5Z, storms of various
modes and strengths are shown to enter west central Kansas.
Supple PWATs of >1.5 inches shown on NAMNST forecast soundings
will feed these storms well into the morning as it moves across
our northern zones. The most organized parts of this system
create the best chance (>55% from ensembles) of precipitation
in the forecast area through the interstate 70 corridor. Less
organized convection could disperse across the entire forecast
area as ensembles hold a >10% chance for the entire area.

Into Thursday after the storm system moves trough, an
associated winds shift will have south winds prevail during the
day. Around 22Z yet another round of precipitation is expected
to move through. This MCS signal is tracked by ensembles to
follow a similar path as the previous round of precipitation.
North of highway 56 represents a meaningful chance (>33%) for
accumulating precipitation and the best chance (>50) northwest
of the Hays to Garden City axis. Precipitation means from the
ensembles struggle to reach 0.25 inches of accumulation due to
the speed of the system and fairly limited coverage. Despite
this, forecast soundings have notable amounts of instability
(CAPE of 2500 J/kg) and moisture (70F dewpoints) that create a
severe threat where the CAP can be overcome.

Friday will see temperatures rise as ensembles return 100F
temperatures to our southeastern zones, however the latest
trends have pulled back the surface heating and lingering
outflow from the previous MCS could contribute in temperatures
struggling to reach the 100F mark. Saturday night has yet
another MCS signal across ensembles, but the broad area of lower
probabilities put pause in the exact timing and location of
this system.

The rest of the forecast currently looks to provide reprieve
from the MCS abundant pattern. Near the end of the forecast
period into Monday and Tuesday, ensembles have +100F
temperatures returning without MCS interference.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Excellent flying weather will continue through at least 06z Thu,
with VFR/SKC and light E/SE winds. Model consensus is scattered
showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into SW KS
during the 06-12z Thu time range, along with an increase in
associated midlevel cloud decks. Kept TAFs simple for now with
VCTS/CB mentions, pending radar trends tonight. Scattered rain
showers are expected to be in progress around 12z Thu, with
midlevel clouds, but still with VFR prevailing. After 15z Thu,
south winds will increase at all airports gusting to near 30
kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...KJohnson
AVIATION...Turner