Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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373 FXUS63 KDDC 191655 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1155 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures in the 90s and strong south winds are expected Sunday afternoon. - Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - The highest risk of straight line wind damage will be east of Dodge City Sunday evening, where gusts of 60-90 mph are expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Midnight infrared satellite and radar imagery depicted a well developed mesoscale convective system (MCS) over NW KS. 00z ARW/NAM retain this system`s integrity all night, brushing against the NW zones through sunrise Sunday. Marginally severe wind gusts will remain possible overnight, with a developing warm advection pattern and low level jet feeding the complex. Elsewhere, light east winds will begin trending SEly toward sunrise, which will begin to enhance the process of moisture transport from the southern plains and Gulf of Mexico. Many locations will stay above 60 through sunrise Sunday. Shortwave near the Four Corners at 7 am Sunday will progress to the I-25 corridor at midday, and reach the SW KS dryline near max heating (2-4 pm). Models have remained locked in this timing with the diurnal cycle for several days. Dryline will sharpen quickly after sunrise, and essentially bisect the DDC CWA along the US 83/283 corridors at 4 pm. Models maintain continuity showing warm 700 mb temperatures in the 11-12C range as the shortwave approaches, but the 700 mb thermal trough should shave that down a few degrees as the shortwave passes. Warm sector east of the dryline Sunday afternoon will be hot, moist and volatile, with widespread CAPE near/exceeding 4000 J/kg. Temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s are expected; midnight surface analysis and 00z raobs show deep, widespread moisture across the southern plains that will advect into SW KS rapidly through afternoon. Importantly, some flavor of outflow boundary will likely be left behind by this morning`s MCS, and this will be a mesoscale ingredient that will be tracked today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop first along US 83 near 4 pm. Initial updrafts should develop into supercells rapidly, with hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. During the 5-7 pm time range, a very rapid expansion/redevelopment eastward is expected, as forcing for ascent interacts with the warm sector. Many of the assorted CAMS are in remarkable agreement of a quick evolution to a quasi-linear MCS, marching east of US 283 by 7 pm. Damaging winds are expected from this MCS, with straight line wind gusts of 60-90 mph probable with the stronger line segments. This threat is expected to be maximized along the US 183 corridor (Hays-Greensburg) in the 7-9 pm time range, as the complex encounters increasing instability and rear inflow jets are at maximum strength. Storms are expected to exit the DDC CWA no later than midnight. The tornado risk is much more conditional and problematic. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself southeast of DDC to northwest Oklahoma during the evening, and take advantage of the low level jet ahead of the accelerating MCS, would have high end hail/tornado risk. But the existence of such a storm is very uncertain. Have much higher confidence of QLCS tornado/mesovortex spinups on the leading edge of the advancing MCS, which would just be masked by widespread damaging outflow winds anyway. Given the excellent CAM/model agreement, and background impressive unstable/sheared warm sector, have coordinated a wind-driven moderate risk (45% wind probability) with SPC for Sunday afternoon/evening. Hurricane force gusts of 75 mph or greater are probable, with some gusts as high as 90 mph on the apex of the strongest bows. As mentioned by SPC and shown by some HRRR runs, gusts of 100-105 mph are possible (especially east of Dodge City), with wind damage a very real threat. Have several ways to receive warnings Sunday afternoon and evening. Many will be outdoors and away from shelter, engaged in recreational or camping activities, which increases the risk from damaging winds significantly. A reminder: straight line winds can do plenty of damage; you do NOT need a tornado to do significant tree/property damage. Please heed all warnings, especially if outdoors and away from shelter. Severe thunderstorm warnings with gusts of 80 mph or greater will carry a "destructive" wording tag, and will alert WEA (wireless emergency alerts) on phones and other mobile devices. Most guidance allows the dryline to retreat rapidly westward back into SW KS Sunday night/Monday morning. This makes sense, given broadscale synoptic troughing remaining across the Rockies. Moisture will return dramatically through early Monday, but with a lack of forcing and surface CAPE depleted by the MCS, this period should be dry. Severe risk will continue on Monday, with a new surface cyclone developing near Baca county Colorado by 7 pm. A dryline/frontal boundary triple point will exist nearby, probably near the KS/OK border or just south. Another volatile hot, moist unstable airmass is forecast across the southeast zones. Capping may be an issue, as seen by much model guidance not generating convective QPF. Still, this potential for supercells will need to be assessed once we get through Sunday`s event. Monday will remain hot with above normal temperatures, in the lower to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 With a busy short term, little time was spent on the long term, and NBM was accepted. Models remain consistent ejecting a significant piece of the Rockies trough into the northern plains Tuesday. The associated cold front will swing through SW KS Tuesday, with noticeably cooler, drier, and much more stable air arriving Tuesday through Wednesday on elevated north winds. With moisture and instability being pushed away, this evolution will end any chance of rain/storms Tuesday through Wednesday. NBM remains consistent with its previous runs and 00z MEX with Wednesday being the coolest day, with sunrise temperatures in the 40s, and pleasant afternoon temperatures in the 70s. Afternoon temperatures will warm quickly back through the 80s Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Main weather event of interest will be an intense squall line forecast to develop in eastern Colorado early this afternoon and race across southwest Kansas. TEMPOs are included in the TAF and we are expecting the line of storms to be around GCK and LBL in the 22Z-00Z time frame, DDC and HYS in the 23-01Z time frame. Downburst winds of 60+ kts are possible in this line of storms (with some models showing as high as 75+kt gusts) as they move over the airport and take off and landing is not advised when the line is moving through. The line should be out of southwest Kansas by 03Z. Low clouds are forecast to develop for DDC and HYS between 10-14Z where we could see cloud ceilings drop to IFR flight category. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Tatro