980
FXUS63 KDLH 052332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and continuing
  into the evening. The main threats include hail up to 1 and
  wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Drier conditions heading into the weekend with scattered
  precipitation on Saturday.

- Pleasant start to the week with a more active pattern arriving
  mid- week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Following our frontal passage late last night, dewpoints in the area
are mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s as opposed to the mid to
upper 60s we saw yesterday. That being said, on the heels of that
cold front, another quick moving shortwave trough will drop out of
Canada bringing us our active weather today. The shortwave in
question is tied to a progressive flow regime straddling the
US/Canadian border with a 200mb jet exceeding 125 kts pointed
directly at central Minnesota. The shortwave trough will allow for
enough ascent for scattered thunderstorms to fire starting around
1pm and continuing until 9pm. With clouds clearing across northern
Minnesota, we are already seeing some bubbling CU fields evident of
500-1000 joules of CAPE per SPC Mesoanalysis. With the jet aloft,
bulk shear will be in the 20-40 kt range with higher values as you
go south into MPXs CWA. As storms begin to coalesce and grow
over the next few hours they should be quite widespread across
our entire CWA. However, due to the stronger shear being located
further south, the best chance of seeing a stronger storm lies
south of a line stretching from Grand Rapids to Duluth to
Ashland where the placement of >1000 joules of CAPE and bulk
shear nearing 35 kts is collocated. The main hazards we expect
to see today are hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts pushing 60 mph
in the strongest cores. It should be noted that with
substantial 3CAPE (>150 joules) in tandem with low-level
vorticity per the 15z RAP, an isolated funnel or brief tornado
cannot be ruled out where we have better moisture pooling
further southeast in our CWA. Storms should begin to wind down
as the sun begins to set this evening and drier conditions will
take hold.

Extended Range:

Following our storms today, a trough will build in over much of the
Great Lakes inducing subsidence across much of the Northland. This
will dry us out within NW flow keeping our dewpoints on the lower
side as well. Temperatures on Thursday will be a bit on the chillier
side with highs struggling to get out of the 50s and lower 60s.
However heading into the weekend, we should rebound into the upper
60s and lower 70s. Saturday afternoon will present us with our next
chance of rain as another shortwave drops out of Canada. With
limited moisture and a southerly track, we are not expecting
much from this system. In the wake of this system, a ridge will
build in behind this allowing for warmer conditions to return
with highs likely to touch into the upper 70s/lower 80s by early
next week. Precipitation chances will remain on the lower side
until later in the week when a more active pattern looks to
begin across the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cluster of showers and storms is advancing across the
Northland once again this evening. These storms should bring a
brief period of heavy rain with MVFR visibilities and ceilings
and gusty winds to 40kts to KHYR and/or KDLH. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. Storms should gradually lose intensity
through 01z, diminishing to no more than showers by 04z. Stratus
over southern Manitoba to slide into the area after 04z,
continuing to move southeast overnight, bringing MVFR ceilings
to all the terminals. Several terminals should also get -SHRA,
but have not put any other restriction in for now. Ceilings
should lift during the day, but only a few sites should get
above VFR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening with showers lingering overnight, primarily along the
North Shore. Any storms may contain small hail, wind gusts to 40
knots and heavy downpours. Winds will remain westerly tonight at
10 to 20 knots and into Thursday with gusts to 25 to 30 knots at
the head of the lake and along the North Shore Thursday. Small
Craft Advisories will most likely be needed for this. The
westerlies remain breezy again on Friday and may lead to another
period of conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BJH