Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 160534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1234 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Updating Aviation section below for the 06Z TAF update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

High pressure will gradually retreat to the southeast this
evening ahead of an approaching surface low from the Canadian
Prairies. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop near
the low center and drift east-southeastward along the
International Border this evening. Farther south, sunny/clear
skies will continue into tonight. Winds aloft will strengthen over
north-central Minnesota tonight as the low-level jet develops.
Deep mixing today should continue as wind speeds increase, keeping
temperatures over our northwestern zones elevated tonight. Lows
northwest will be in the low 50s, with upper 30s to low 40s
northeast and low to middle 40s elsewhere.

The surface low will push farther southeastward on Wednesday
pulling a weak cool front south across the Northland. The boundary
will provide a focus for isolated shower and thunderstorm
development during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Widespread rainfall is unlikely with these storms, but a few
localized areas may receive a few tenths of an inch, where the
heaviest showers and thunderstorms occur. Highs will trend warmer
on southwesterly winds. Look for temperatures to reach the low to
middle 80s south and the low to upper 70s north. With stronger
flow over the region, the lake breeze will only affect areas in
far northeaster Minnesota, generally northeast of Silver Bay. High
temps in those areas will reach the middle to upper 60s before
the lake breeze arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Isolated showers and storms will gradually weaken Wednesday
evening as the front stalls out overnight across our southern
zones. Meanwhile a shortwave trough is forecast to ride over the
upper-level ridge and into the region by Thursday morning. The
front will drift slightly farther north as a weak warm front
during the morning with another round of showers and
thunderstorms firing along the boundary. Falling heights over
northern Minnesota, in addition to increasing upglide over the
frontal surface, should be sufficient for additional shower
development by early Thursday morning. A few thunderstorms are
possible Thursday afternoon and evening from Koochiching County
southeast to the Hayward Lakes.

The initial shortwave will lift out of the Northland Thursday
night with shower and storm chances waning. Another perturbation
will develop in the Plains in response to Thursday afternoon
convection. This feature is forecast to propagate northeastward
and support another round of rain and thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday. High pressure will build in from the Canadian Prairies
by Saturday afternoon. Dry and quiet weather is expected for the
second half of the weekend through next Tuesday with near to
slightly above normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

A surface low with a cold front will move across the forecast area
through the TAF period, bringing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms to some of the terminals. Shower chances will be
limited to KINL until 13z, then showers and thunderstorms at KDLH
and KHIB after 21z. Have kept to VCTS for both sites for now, but
may need to add a tempo group as trends develop in the morning.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions with southwest winds slowly turning
to the north to northwest beginning around 21z.


DLH  43  80  42  57 /   0  30  30  20
INL  51  74  43  63 /  20  10  20  30
BRD  48  84  49  74 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  46  83  48  76 /   0  10  10  30
ASX  38  80  41  59 /   0  30  30  20




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