Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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284 FXUS63 KDMX 091128 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 628 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mostly sunny today, with winds turning breezy - Periodic chances for showers and storms return Tuesday through the work week - Temperatures turn much warmer by mid to late week, with values in the 80s to low 90s && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Dry and quiet conditions remain over Iowa this morning, though looking at regional radar can see an ongoing MCS over much of Kansas and into Missouri, which per satellite imagery can see cloud debris from this system covering portions of southwestern Iowa, while the rest of the state sees mostly clear skies. Can expect this cloud cover to push across the southern half of the state for the remainder of the morning as the complex of storms further south continue to exit the region, gradually clearing into the late morning/early afternoon. Temperatures have been on the comfortable side this morning, with values in the 50s to low 60s, along with light and variable winds. As upper level ridging further north with surface high pressure continues to move overhead across the region, can expect dry conditions as temperatures reach into the upper 70s to low 80s today, with skies becoming mostly sunny. Increasing winds out of the northwest will result in breezy conditions later this morning through the afternoon, with gusts upwards of 25-35 mph possible, especially over northeastern Iowa. Winds relax into the evening, with overnight lows falling into the 50s. The start of the work week will be similar as high pressure slowly makes as exit Monday, with highs through the 70s under mostly sunny skies and lighter winds out of the northeast, gradually shifting southeast by the evening. Monday evening into Tuesday, low level flow turns more southwesterly, bringing a push of weak warm air advection and at least some moisture return to Iowa ahead of a frontal boundary attached to a shortwave tracking eastward across the Midwest. Overall forcing looks to be on the lower end, along with CAPE values below 1000J/kg despite bulk shear values around 30-35 kts. Looking closer into model soundings, low level dry air looks to be a potential issue, which may allow for limited potential for shower and storm activity. If anything were to develop, conditions look more favorable over northern Iowa, with showers and a weak storm or two possible Tuesday morning. Later on into the afternoon to evening, details get a bit more uncertain, as deterministic models have differing solutions, as the NAM suggests dry conditions returning into the afternoon while the GFS shows redeveloping activity as the low level jet begins to strengthen. Again, with similar environment conditions, am not expecting any potential for severe weather at this time. SPC highlights the entire state with a general thunder risk, which is agreeable given the uncertainties that exists regarding evolution of any activity that were to develop. Beyond Tuesday, upper level northwest flow will largely continue through the work week, in which several waves passing through within this larger scale flow are expected to result in additional chances for showers and storms each day this week. Another shortwave passing through Wednesday afternoon to evening looks to contain better forcing, with bulk shear values around 30-35kts and CAPE values a bit higher around 1000-1500J/kg, though largely displaced behind the front. As expected given timing out ahead of this event, various solutions in terms of location of this activity are present, so will not get more specific in terms of additional details at this time. This trend of active weather looks to continue by the end of the work week as the northwest flow remains prominent, with periods of showers and storms expected. A large area of thermal ridging across the Western CONUS generally looks to push into the Midwest THursday and into the weekend, with highs expected in the 80s to low 90s. A more defined trough lifting northwest out of the Desert Southwest looks to move into the region by Saturday, which may hold a better potential to see a few strong to possibly severe storms. Will be keeping a close eye on the details as more information becomes known. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Outside of scattered high cloud cover over the state mainly this morning, mostly sunny skies are expected. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the terminals through the period. Winds are expected to increase out of the northwest after 15z-18z this morning until around 00z-01z, with gusts upwards of 30-35+ knots expected, especially over KALO and KMCW. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury AVIATION...Bury