885
FXUS63 KDTX 101953
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions for the first half of the week.

- Cool today with a warming trend into mid-week.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Canadian surface high will settle southward and center itself over
the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Cool northerly flow will
continue, while weakening, through the overnight while upper level
ridge axis approaches Lake MI. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of
small vorticities embedded in the positively tilted long wave trough
with another set to drop through the region tonight, but a lack of
moisture which led to afternoon vorts not amounting to even cloud
cover today, will again pass without cause. Low temperatures will
fall tonight into the low-mid 40s as clear skies and calming winds
occur under the current cold dome with 850mb temps around 6C.

Upper level ridge axis slides east through the day Tuesday, allowing
for steady moderation of the cool airmass. Highs should rebound back
into the low 70s with further warming to come mid week. An elevated
warm front, moisture surge will occur Tuesday night behind a mid
level trough. The trough will fold the thermal ridge over into the
Great Lakes with the zonal, westerly flow ushering in a much warmer
airmass from the Plains. 850mb temps will reach 15-16C Wednesday and
Thursday as PWATs jump from a half inch Tuesday to an inch on
Wednesday and near 1.5 inches Thursday.  Should be mentioned the
warm frontal moisture surge Tuesday night will support an increased
cloud field, but although the CAMs want to generate some high based
showers with the weakening boundary, subsidence and dry air in
advance of the feature will make the environment unsupportive to
continue any upstream convection into the region.

Late Thursday into the overnight will be the next time we could see
showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Pattern is
still zonal but a strong wave will start to buckle it over the
Midwest when a secondary jet max enters the trough causing it to dig
southward more. The parent wave to the north will carry higher
coverage of precipitation, but the front will enter a region that
may build around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE with little shear around 20
knots, which has been trending down.

The story for the long term will be the continued heat as large
ridge will build across the central/eastern conus. The ECMWF offers
up 850mb temps around 20C well into next week.

&&

.MARINE...

Anticyclonic northerly flow maintains an on-shore component with
favorable trajectory along the long axis of Lake Huron. This
promotes the continuation of elevated wave action for the southern
nearshore zones, therefore, will maintain the southern breakout for
the Small Craft Advisory until late evening. The pressure gradient
relaxes with time allowing speeds to trend AOB 10 knots tonight
while peak afternoon gusts near 20 knots drop-off by dusk. High
pressure builds southeast into the Ohio Valley Tuesday promoting
weak flow across the central Great Lakes. The ridge of high pressure
will migrate eastward Wednesday offering a return-flow setup veering
winds southerly as the gradient slowly becomes more established into
the second half of the week. A low pressure system is projected
arrives late Thursday into Friday which could support renewed Small
Craft Advisory conditions with opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

AVIATION...

Diurnal heating allows for scattered to broken cumulus deck to hang
around early this afternoon. Dry air advection from the northwest
has begun to dissipate these clouds, and clear sky conditions will
emerge this afternoon and evening for all TAF sites. Northwesterly
wind of 10 knots decrease in strength this evening as approaching
ridge continues to help surface high pressure build in. High
pressure center moves overhead DTW, YIP, and DET Tuesday afternoon,
with light variable winds at those locations. Winds back to become
southwesterly at MBS, FNT, and PTK after the passage of the high
pressure center. Skies are set to remain clear through the end of
the TAF period on Tuesday, but an approaching cold front brings
clouds to the area shortly thereafter on Wednesday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the
TAF period.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon, Low this evening
  and on Tuesday.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....BC


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