Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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285 FXUS63 KDVN 300737 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet, low humidity weather through the short term as precipitation approaches the area late. - Active weather continues through the long term with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Upper level ridging will keep the area quiet as high pressure is in place at the surface. Later in the period, the ridge starts to shift south as the first shortwave in a busy weekend its quick to enter the area. Before this, high pressure will continue to bring in drier air from the east leading to another pleasant day across the area. Highs in the 70s with low humidity is expected. Later in the period, high level clouds move into the area and help to keep lows tonight 3 to 6 degrees warmer than this morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 There is run to run variability within the different models as well as some differences between individual models through the period. They are in vary good agreement on an active west to east zonal flow through the period with several shortwave troughs and ridging moving across the area through next week. This will result in several chances of showers and storms timed roughly every 24 hours through the period. There is a stronger shortwave arriving Tuesday into Wednesday with the ECWMF solution faster than the GFS at this time. Friday into Saturday, ridging that has brought pleasant weather to the area in the short term will have moved to the east of the area. A shortwave to our southwest will approach the area on Friday. THe ECWMF is the most aggressive model having precipitation moving into southeast Iowa Friday morning and continuing through the day while the other models delay it to the arrival of stronger forcing Friday night into Saturday morning. How far north any shower and thunderstorm activity spreads Friday night will be dependent how far north the surface low and warm front tracks into Missouri with the GFS the farthest south solution keeping the bulk of precipitation south of Interstate 80. The NBM continues to have low pops spreading from west to east through the day on Friday accounting for model differences. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s before warming into the lower to mid 80s Sunday through Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s Friday night and Saturday night then warming to 60 to 65 degrees Sunday night through Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period as light winds and high clouds are the main weather story. No sig wx impacts to aviation expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1017 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 No changes with the new forecasts this morning on area rivers. The Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa will continue to rise to just under Moderate flood by Thursday morning. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt continues to rise and is expected to have a double crest in Major flood over the next 5 days due to routed flow upstream. The crest of 13.3 feet will be the highest the river has been since June 2020. The lower portions of the Iowa River is cresting or will be near crest today. The Skunk River at Augusta will continue to rise to 14.4 feet Thursday evening which is below flood stage. On the mainstem Mississippi, the river is expected to rise into Minor flood from New Boston LD 17 downstream to Burlington and also at Gregory Landing. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Gibbs HYDROLOGY...Gross