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000
FXUS63 KDVN 081711
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Key messages:

1) Pleasant late spring weather

2) Some smoke aloft may create a milky sky

Today: May be a bit of hazy sky from some smoke aloft, but for
the most part, expect plenty of sunshine with a very dry airmass
in place. Maximum temperatures have been overachieving lately
(due to drought) so raised temps a couple of degrees from NBM
guidance. This gives the forecast area afternoon highs in the
pleasantly warm upper 70s to lower 80s (about normal for this time
of year).

Tonight: The RAP vertically integrated smoke model indicates the
smoke aloft dissipating in our area (or at least thinning out).
Therefore, a mostly clear and rather cool night is in store, with
a light wind and lows bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Key messages:

1) Latest model trend is to slow down the weekend system

2) Best rain chances we have seen in several weeks

3) Cooler early next week then warming back up

Friday through Sunday: Pleasantly warm again on Friday but then a
strengthening upper level trough/closed low takes shape across the
Midwest. With the system slower to arrive, this should allow for
a better influx of moisture to get drawn northward into the
forecast area. GFS/ECMWF indicating a rather widespread rain
event, the best opportunity in several weeks! As of now, rainfall
amounts look to be generally in the 1/2 to 1 inch range, possibly
higher amounts. Keeping our fingers crossed as this is what we
need for the thirsty lawns, gardens, and crops. Highs will be in
the 80s on Saturday, then in the 70s on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday: Closed low in the Great Lakes region
will slowly push eastward, but still a chance of showers on
Monday. Cooler temps again early in the week with highs in the
70s then warming back up into the 80s by mid week, as the storm
system tracks into New England.

Looking beyond: One clear message from the long range model (CFS)
is the blocking pattern we have been in for the past several
weeks looks to finally break down, allowing for a much more
progressive, active, and wetter pattern the last half of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light
northeasterly winds going light and variable overnight. No sig wx
is expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Gunkel