Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 161135
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
635 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

A large area of high pressure was centered over the central and
northern Plains early this morning, which provided clear skies,
light winds out of the west and cool temperatures to the area. As of

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

[Key Messages]

1) Warm and windy with abundant sunshine today

[Discussion]

Today should be a relatively nice day overall as the high pressure
remains the primary influencer of our weather. Expect abundant
sunshine and warm temperatures, with highs this afternoon climbing
into the mid to upper 70s. A reading around 80 is also possible,
especially out in east central Iowa. Strong low-level mixing should
also help lower dewpoints and increase wind speeds out of the
northwest this afternoon, with values around 20-30 MPH expected.
These will diminish with the sunset.

A quiet night is expected with lows dipping into the low to middle
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Key Messages:

1. No  major changes to the forecast from the previous issuance.
Cooler temperatures are possible for next weekend.

2. Chances of precipitation through the period.

Discussion:

West to east flow aloft will be in place to start the long term on
Tuesday morning. Models are disagreeing on the placement of an
frontogenetical forcing band on Tuesday ahead of a subtle shortwave
that is forecast to move across the area late Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. the placement of this FGEN band may result in shower and
storm development across the area Tuesday morning with mainly
showers with embedded thunderstorms. Have introduced 20 POPs across
the area Tuesday morning and afternoon to account for this. The GFS
is stronger with the subtle shortwave Tuesday night into Wednesday
and generates more widespread precipitation with some convective
feedback contributing to heavier precipitation than the NAM,
ECWMF,and Canadian. This wave is forecast to shift eastward on
Wednesday with precipitation ending Wednesday afternoon. High
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s with
slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday.

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the area on Thursday with
warmer air spreading northward into the area. Resulting in the
warmest day of the week. High temperatures on Thursday will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Eastern Iowa TAF sites are forecast to remain on the northeast
edge of surface high pressure that will move into Missouri today.
Westerly winds this morning will become more northwesterly and
gusty with speeds between 12 t0 22 knots. Diurnally driven clouds
are forecast to develop around 7 kft. All of this results in VFR
TAFs through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins


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