Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 121145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
645 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018


Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

High pressure building south into the area this morning brought
low clouds to the area. This aided in keeping overnight
temperatures from falling too much. Temperatures across the area
ranged from the mid to low 30s. This high pressure will serve as
the foci for today`s weather.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Primary forecast concern for today are slight chances for flurries
across the eastern zones. From a sensible weather standpoint most
of today will be quiet as temperatures again reach into the 40s

To the east, a H5 wave is prog to rotate south over the Great
Lakes. At the surface moisture is pooling in front of the wave.
With large enough lapse rates, some flurries may squeeze out of
the clouds. Hires guidance keeps most of the reflectivity out our
area. With this in mind and the wave further to our east, have
opted not to add flurries into the forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The beginning of the long term remains unchanged from previous
forecasts. Overall cool to start the period then a warming trend
as the flow turns southwest and brings warmer air into the area.

Latest models still advertise a longwave trof across the western
CONUS that shifts east through the weekend. As we see often with
guidance, it is quick to move the wave out. Latest runs have
slowed the timing of this wave to correspond more with a late
Sunday to Monday arrival. That said, the ECMWF has not become an
outlier in the momentum fields late this week. Much uncertainty
remains in this forecast. At the current time, the blended
forecast has a long duration precip event for the area this
weekend. I think that as we get closer to the weekend the actual
event will not be long duration. As such, expect changes to occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Mainly MVFR clouds in place across the region will slowly
transition to VFR conditions through the morning. There may be a
few flurries out of developing low clouds late this morning and
afternoon, but have chosen to leave out of the forecast due to low
probability of occurrence. Northwest winds around 10-15 kts will
occasionally gust to 20-25 kts.




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