186
FXUS63 KDVN 061905
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
205 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms (30-60%)
  are possible this afternoon into this evening, most likely
  for locations along and east of the Mississippi River.
  Otherwise, most other locations will remain dry today.

- Periodic chances of showers and storms remain in the picture
  Tuesday through Friday, but with plenty of dry periods
  interspersed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid-level trough will continue to hang around our region this
afternoon into the evening hours, which will lead to a period of
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (30-60%) at times through
this evening, mainly for locations along and east of the Mississippi
River. An associated surface trough axis will be the main forcing
mechanism for this activity, which extends from a surface low over
central lower Michigan. The convective parameter space looks to be
weaker for stronger storms compared to yesterday, with weaker low-
level lapse rates (<7.5 C/km) and PWAT values around 1.7 to 2.0
inches. MLCAPE values remain around 1000-1500 J/kg per the latest
SPC Mesoanalysis/RAP13 output.

Although severe storms are not anticipated today, a few brief funnel
clouds are possible as hi-res models are showing enhanced surface
vorticity along the surface trough, combined with moderate low-level
CAPE (0-3 km 100+ J/kg). Latest RAP NST parameter values are
highlighting the boundary with values of ~1-3.

Monday looks to be seasonably warm and humid, with highs in the 80s
and dewpoints between 65 to 70 degrees. An area of high pressure is
progged to move through the Corn Belt region, so most of the day
should remain dry. However, a few showers or storms can`t be ruled
out entirely during the late afternoon hours along a mid-level
shortwave that will approach the area, but the 06.12z HREF ensemble
shows a pretty strong signal for any activity to remain isolated, so
again, most locations will remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A fairly active period is on tap for Tuesday through Friday, with
occasional chances of showers and storms in the forecast. A few mid-
level impulses are progged to sweep through the CWA during this time
frame, particularly on Tuesday and again on Friday. SPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for our southwestern areas
Tuesday for the threat of a strong to severe storm in the afternoon
and evening hours. Analysis of the convective parameter space shows
a similar environment to the last few severe weather events we`ve
had, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Steep low-level
lapse rates and PWATs exceeding 2" once again will support the
potential for wet microbursts. Seems like the potential for hail and
tornadoes is very low, given very weak mid-level lapse rates, and a
more uni-directional shear profile to preclude any tornado threat.

Another mid-level trough looks to move through on Friday, with some
signals in the various extended machine learning output for the
potential for isolated strong to severe storms, but with this threat
so far out, confidence remains lower for severe weather potential.
Still, something to be mindful of though as we go through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Largely VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.
Chances of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will
increase over the next few hours, which could impact DBQ, MLI,
and BRL. However, confidence remains generally lower on the
timing and coverage of this activity due to differences among
the high-res models. MLI appears most likely to see showers
compared to other TAF sites.

Dry conditions are expected tonight through 18z Monday, with a
period of MVFR fog possible for DBQ and CID. While IFR
visibility reductions can`t be ruled out entirely, the NBM
probabilities for IFR remain around 20%, so too uncertain at
this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz