Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
733 ACUS02 KWNS 270602 SWODY2 SPC AC 270600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into parts of MN. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening. Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of significant severe gusts. The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024 $$