Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
501 ACUS02 KWNS 211723 SWODY2 SPC AC 211721 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Synopsis... A filling mid-level low will move toward the central High Plains on Sunday afternoon/evening. Moderate mid-level flow will maintain southeast of this low and overspread the Oklahoma/southern Kansas vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern Michigan across Illinois and Missouri and into Oklahoma and Texas. ...Southern Missouri across Oklahoma and into West Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the surface front across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma and from central Kansas, across Missouri, and to southern Illinois Sunday morning. A seasonally moist airmass featuring upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints will exist ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon/evening. Surface heating ahead of the front should result in moderate instability amid a marginally sheared airmass. A few stronger/organized storms are possible with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, especially where any clustering or line segments can develop. Some large hail is also possible, where a few supercells are possible across northwest Texas and West Texas. The severe threat will be primarily diurnally driven with minimal severe concerns after 1-3 UTC. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 $$