845
FXUS66 KEKA 232227
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
327 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather expected in the interior through
Tuesday, followed by more moderate daytime temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday. Marine air will keep coastal areas much cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratus has been steadily clearing out this
afternoon over the North Coast with a stubborn area wedged in the
Eel delta. Expect regeneration this evening after sunshine this
evening, though the Eel delta may remain socked in. Northwesterly
winds have been a bit overdone by the high resolution models, the
gusts that is. Strong marine inversion has limited the mixing
depth, though CEC has been gusting to 25kt and KACV 18kt. Meanwhile,
1000-2500 feet above mean sea level northerly winds have been
consistently gusting to 40 mph or more for the last several days,
primarily over exposed ridges of SW Humboldt and the King Range.

Prime concern going into Tuesday will be the possibility for
high-based convection and dry thunderstorms. NAM and GFS
soundings indicate elevated CAPE arising from an increase in mid
level humidity. The NAM and NAM-nest in particular are much more
bullish with elevated CAPE in excess of 500J/kg. Other indicators
for storms are not screaming high probabilities either with NBM
less than 3% and SREF not much better. The ECMWF and GFS do show
above normal PWATs spreading into southern Mendo and Lake on Tue.
Also, convective allowing models show weak composite cores that
may just be light showers or sprinkles. Even if there is no dry
lightning strikes, there is still a threat for outflow winds from
very light showers or virga due to the very low humidity below
10kft. This will need to be watched closely

Otherwise, it will remain hot and dry in the interior valleys Monday
through Tuesday with 850mb temperature above normal. Another trough
in westerly flow will result in some cooling Wed and Thu in response
to stronger and gustier west to northwest winds in the interior. A
warming trend for the interior will most likely commence next Friday
with above normal temperatures returning next weekend. DB

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR ceilings and visibilities were present along the
coast north of Cape Mendocino and down the Eel River valley this
morning. The coastal stratus layer has been slowly eroding
throughout the morning, but may be more stubborn around Humboldt Bay
and the mouth of the Eel River Valley. Northwest winds will pick up
along the coast aiding in clearing out the stratus early this
afternoon. Coastal stratus is forecast to affect coastal terminals
again into this evening and overnight with LIFR conditions most
likely. VFR conditions are expected around UKI.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds continue to strengthen again today. This
will bring gusts to 20 kts and above along with steep short period
seas throughout all waters, with Gale Force gusts expected in the
usual spots downwind of Cape Mendo and near Pt St George. Northerly
winds will weaken during the day tomorrow, and by tomorrow evening
only the southern waters are forecasted to support short period seas
steep enough for a small craft advisory. Meanwhile a minor northwest
swell of 5 feet at 11 seconds will fill in early tomorrow morning.
Northerlies are then forecast to remain below 15 kt for most zones
during midweek, aside from the persistent 15-20 kt northerlies
expected directly downwind of Cape Mendo. Winds may strengthen again
Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png