Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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762 AXPZ20 KNHC 172053 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 92 extending from along the Mexico-Guatemala border southward over the eastern Pacific to near 06N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-14N between 90W-95W. A tropical wave is along 109W from 20N to near 06N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave from 05N-08N between 110W-115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W westward to 10N122W. From there, it transitions to the ITCZ, which extends west-southwestward to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-12N west of 130W, from 08N-10N between 112-117W, and from 07N-14N between 90W-95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from 26N118W to 18N105W. Over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, winds are NW moderate to fresh this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Pacific waters, 4-5 ft over the N Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft over the central and S Gulf of California. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the waters just west of the Baja California peninsula from Cabo San Lazaro northward will weaken by Thu morning. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate for the next several days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough; while north of the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds are observed. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds will continue south of the monsoon trough near 10N through tomorrow afternoon, then freshen Thu through Sat. North of the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds are expected for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging from a 1031 mb high centered near 38N155W extends east-southeastward to 30N125W the to 26N118W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades, strongest from 12N to 20N west of 130W. Seas are 7-8 ft from 09N-17N west of 132W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross 30N east of 130W Wed night and push southeastward before dissipating by Fri morning. No substantial winds or seas should accompany this front. Otherwise, little change is expected over the open Pacific waters for the next several days. $$ Landsea