770
AXPZ20 KNHC 300857
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico (AL94): A
broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche with
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for further development, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form before the system moves
inland over Mexico on Mon. Interests along the Gulf coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low
pressure will continue affect portions of Central America and
Mexico through early next week. Currently, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over Chiapas, and over most of
Guatemala. This system Please refer to local weather advisories
for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia, northwestward across
southern Panama to northern Costa Rica and continues northwestward
to 14N95W, then southwestward to low pressure near 12N105W 1010
mb, and to 08N111W. The ITCZ extends from 08N111W to 08N116W to
06N124W to 06N130W to 07N135W to 07N140W. Numerous strong
convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 95W and
98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of
16N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south
of the trough within 60 nm of 12N96W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 136W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential through the early part of the upcoming
week over southern Mexico.

A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is
supporting light to gentle northwest winds over most of the
Mexico offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores
are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican offshore
zones range 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Locally moderate northwest
winds are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds continue in the northern Gulf of
California through Mon along with seas of 3 to 4 ft.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure that is over the Bay of Campeche
extend westward to the offshore waters of southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, the scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the offshore waters of Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to change little through
the early part of the upcoming week. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle
breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore
waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja
California offshore waters. A surface trough along the Baja
Peninsula and a tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate
to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon
through Wed. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form by
early next week a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible, and a
tropical depression could form around midweek while the system
moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential through the early part of the upcoming
week over northern Central America.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Central America
offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft with south to southwest
swell. Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore
waters of Panama and Colombia with 3 to 4 ft seas.  In the
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail
with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south swell.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure that is over the Bay of
Campeche extend westward to the offshore waters of Guatemala.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough
are forecast to become moderate to fresh southwest to west winds
south of Costa Rica and Panama starting late Mon night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1027
mb that is located well north of the area near 34N136W. The
ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 122W. North of the
ITCZ to 31N and west of 130W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
are present except for gentle northeast winds in the far NW
part. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere
north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light
to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon
trough, except for light and variable winds from 08N to 18N
between 111W and 121W and for moderate northeast winds within
60 nm NW of a 1010 mb low that is near 12N105W. A trough extends
northwestward from the low to near 15N112W. Scattered moderate
convection is between the trough and the monsoon trough. Moderate
east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4
to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 8 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through early on Mon. Little change is
expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.

$$
Aguirre