334
FXUS64 KEPZ 141137
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
537 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Hot weather will continue into the weekend. Areas, mainly east of
the Rio Grande, will see a slight chance for a thunderstorm this
afternoon though with little rainfall. Gusty winds and dry
lightning will be the main concerns. Temperatures will not be as
hot, but still hot, going into next week. Thunderstorm chances
return area wide mid to late week with the highest chances for
the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Congratulations on surviving the hottest day of the year so far.
The heat is thanks to a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico
into Eastern NM and West TX. Meanwhile, an UL low is near Yuma.
This low will push the ridge into TX, allowing a minor drop in
temperature as well as creating some breezy conditions, especially
west of the Divide. The trough will also try and make the most of
whatever moisture is in place before it gets swept out. It`s not
entirely clear how much moisture will mix out/sweep out by daytime
heating, but there is enough of a signal for slight chance /
isolated pops in the grids, especially east of the Rio Grande and
the Sacramento Mountains. Nevertheless, precipitation will have a
difficult time reaching the ground given 50+ T-Td spreads, so dry
lightning and gusty winds will be the main concern. Given the
higher altitudes and narrower T-Td spreads, the Sacs have a better
chance for wetting rains though not greatly.

As we head into the weekend, the UL pattern will begin more flat
with the ridge suppressed over Mexico. The ridge will sharpen some
into TX while a broader trough deepens to our west. Initially
this will not affect our temperatures much, but as the trough
continues to deepen temperatures will be less hot as we head into
the new work week along with some breezy afternoons. Finally, by
mid-week both the Euro and GFS indicate moisture pushing into the
entire area, introducing low-end storm chances first for areas
east of the Rio on Wednesday, then area-wide on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT150/250. Winds will generally
be out of the west to southwest this afternoon with speeds around
10 knots and gusts to 20 knots. ISO SHRA/TSRA or virga is expected
through the period, especially this afternoon and evening. These
will cause outflow boundaries that may bring variability to
winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A passing upper-level trough will bring some increase in wind to
areas, mainly west of the Continental Divide, and modest storm
chances to areas east of the Rio Grande. Areas west of the divide
will see elevated to marginally critical conditions as winds top
out 15 to 20 MPH with single digit RH values. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for the Gila as a result though latest forecast
winds continue a downward trend in speeds. East of the Rio Grande,
gusty winds and dry lightning will be the main concern with a bit
better probability for wetting rains within the Sacramento
Mountains. Moisture exits the area by this weekend, continuing
the very dry pattern, but only the Sacramento mountains will
maintain a very low chance at any precipitation. Moisture may try
and push in later next week for a pattern change.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 107  77 106  75 /  10  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           100  70 101  68 /  20  30  10  10
Las Cruces              105  70 103  69 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo              101  67 100  68 /  40  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               77  51  78  55 /  70  30  10   0
Truth or Consequences    99  67  99  70 /  30  10   0   0
Silver City              94  61  94  64 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                  104  64 102  64 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg               103  63 100  65 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      104  74 103  72 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City               104  70 103  65 /  30  30  10  10
Fort Hancock            106  71 106  68 /  20  20   0  10
Loma Linda               99  68  97  68 /  20  20   0   0
Fabens                  107  72 105  70 /  10  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            104  68 101  67 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          101  75 101  76 /  20  20   0   0
Jornada Range           101  64 101  66 /  20  20   0   0
Hatch                   104  64 103  65 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus                104  70 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande               101  70 101  68 /  30  20   0   0
Mayhill                  89  54  90  58 /  70  30  20   0
Mescalero                87  54  88  58 /  60  30  10   0
Timberon                 87  54  87  56 /  60  30  10   0
Winston                  90  55  92  59 /  50  10   0   0
Hillsboro                97  65  98  67 /  40  10   0   0
Spaceport               100  61  99  63 /  20  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             93  56  94  59 /  40   0   0   0
Hurley                   98  58  97  61 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                   102  57 102  59 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek               96  62  96  64 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                  97  62  96  64 /  20  10   0   0
Animas                  103  62 101  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                 103  62 101  63 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          102  63 100  65 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               96  63  95  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416-
     417-425-427>429.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown