314
FXUS64 KEPZ 082339
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
539 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Thunderstorms possible again the next couple days but will remain
limited to east of the Rio Grande, but more specifically the
Sacramento Mtns. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazard
with thunderstorms the next couple days. High pressure starts to
build in over the area Tuesday through Friday bringing bleak
chances for storms but also very hot temperatures for multiple
days. Thursday will be the hottest day of the forecast period but
starting Tuesday and lasting into the weekend will be very hot
each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

UL high pressure continues to shift eastward over the Gulf of
Mexico, leaving the Borderland sandwiched in between the high and
a low over Baja California/NW Mexico. A bit drier conditions
expected tomorrow afternoon but thunderstorms are still possible
again for the Sacramento Mtns. Inverted V soundings tomorrow will
continue the threat for gusty and erratic wind gusts from
outflows where gusts could be around 30-40MPH. A backdoor front
will slide south and down the Rockies where it will make an
attempt to enter the area Monday morning. Unfortunately, this
won`t bring cooler temperatures to the area but it will bring in
better moisture to the area and will generally spread as far west
as the Rio Grande Valley. Far eastern areas of the CWA may have a
chance to see thunderstorms if moisture can stay in the area long
enough that afternoon. Storms might be a bit stronger than what
we`ll see today and tomorrow but this will add to the downburst
threat again that afternoon as DCAPEs continue to stay quite
elevated (around 1300-1500J/kg). Gusts have the potential to be a
somewhat stronger than Sundays potential.

By Tuesday, the Borderland starts to dry out leaving storm chances
fairly bleak, but the mountains could see a storm or two that
afternoon and through the end of the work week. However, upper-
level high pressure will build over the area throughout this time.
This will suppress storms and allow for very hot temperatures
during this time frame, especially Thursday. El Paso will be
approaching heat advisory criteria again Tuesday afternoon with
Wednesday through Friday more of a slam dunk scenario for heat
advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW100-SCT250. There will be a few ISO to SCT
RA across the Borderland at least for the next few hours. The
winds will be occasionally breezy 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to
30 kts through 02Z. The winds will then decrease to light until
around 07Z at KELP and 13Z across the rest of the terminals.
Breezy westerly winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts of up to 30 kts will
continue through 00Z Monday. There will be no reduction in the
VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Elevated fire conditions continue each day as min RHs stay within
critical thresholds everywhere except the Sacramento Mtns.
Continued light breezes can be expected each afternoon but will
not get close to critical thresholds keeping conditions elevated.

Storm chances exist again tomorrow and Monday afternoons
where the main threat will be dry lightning and very gusty/erratic
outflow winds near thunderstorms. A cool front will bring in
better moisture to the Rio Grande Valley and eastward Monday
morning, but unfortunately won`t make a dent in these hot
temperatures we`re experiencing. Storm chances appear limited to
the Sacramento Mtns with chances in the eastern parts of Hudspeth
and Otero counties. The Gila could see a few storms the next
couple days but better chances exist out east. The same hazards of
dry lightning and very gusty outflow winds will still be possible
for this area tomorrow and Monday.

Hot temperatures are on the way starting Tuesday and lasting
through at least the work week as high pressure builds over the
Borderland. Storm chances look bleak as high pressure works
against storm formation leaving much of the area dry. A storm or
two is possible these days but won`t amount to much rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 100  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            70  93  63  92 /  20  10  10  10
Las Cruces               70  97  65  97 /  10  20  10  10
Alamogordo               66  95  61  94 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft               53  72  48  71 /  20  30  30  40
Truth or Consequences    71  93  66  93 /  10  20  20  20
Silver City              63  85  59  88 /  20  30  10  10
Deming                   68  95  61  97 /  20  20  10  10
Lordsburg                66  92  61  95 /  10  30  10  10
West El Paso Metro       73  96  69  97 /  10  20  10  10
Dell City                66  98  63  95 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Hancock             68 100  63 100 /  20  10  10  10
Loma Linda               68  90  62  90 /  20  20  10  10
Fabens                   73  99  66  99 /  10  20  10  10
Santa Teresa             71  95  64  95 /  10  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           77  95  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
Jornada Range            65  95  60  95 /  10  20  10  10
Hatch                    66  96  60  97 /  10  20  10  10
Columbus                 74  95  66  97 /  20  20  10   0
Orogrande                68  95  64  94 /  20  20  20  20
Mayhill                  59  84  51  80 /  20  30  30  40
Mescalero                56  83  51  82 /  20  30  30  40
Timberon                 55  81  49  79 /  20  30  20  30
Winston                  60  83  54  85 /  10  30  20  30
Hillsboro                68  89  62  92 /  10  30  20  20
Spaceport                63  92  58  93 /  10  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             59  84  55  89 /  20  30  10  10
Hurley                   63  88  56  92 /  20  30  10  10
Cliff                    61  93  56  96 /  10  30  10  10
Mule Creek               64  87  60  90 /  10  20   0  10
Faywood                  65  88  59  91 /  20  20  10  10
Animas                   66  92  60  95 /  20  20   0   0
Hachita                  68  92  62  95 /  20  20  10   0
Antelope Wells           67  92  61  95 /  20  30  10   0
Cloverdale               65  87  61  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira