Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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597 FXUS64 KEPZ 290005 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 605 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Mainly quiet weather conditions are expected through early next week. The winds each afternoon will be breezy with the high temperatures above the normal. Today El Paso has seen its first 100 degree day; however, triple digit heat will return this weekend and continue through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly sunny, temperatures are on the very warm/hot side with El Paso already in the lower 100s, and the winds light to breezy. There are a few isolated passing showers/virga and mostly dry lightning across the Hudspeth and parts of Otero counties due to some mid level moisture moving through those areas. For tonight, any storms that develop this afternoon will diminish after the sun sets. The winds will become mainly light especially after midnight with the skies with mostly clear to partly cloudy. Due to this, the low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be above the normal for this time of the year. For Wednesday, we will be under a zonal/quasi-zonal flow aloft as a dry shallow short move across the area. The winds are forecast to be similar to today and the high temperatures in the afternoon just a degree or two cooler than what they will be this afternoon. Overnight Wednesday, conditions will remain quiet. For the rest of the period, a dryline will stay mainly east of our CWA. However the position of the dryline will vary from the day to day and depending on how far west it move, there could be a chance for showers and thunderstorms before the end of the period. As for now, storm chances have been kept out of the forecast as models are suggesting that this dryline will stay mainly outside of our CWA each afternoon through early next week. A deeper shortwave will move in toward the weekend, which could bring breezier winds by then. As we remain under a dry west and west southwesterly flow, the temperatures will remain above the normal, with triple digit heat returning to El Paso this weekend and possibly into early next. The high temperatures for El Paso will be around 100 on Saturday, but may reach to 103 on Tuesday and or Wednesday of next week as a ridge of high pressure amplifies across the South. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We saw some puffy cumulus clouds around KELP this afternoon, but those clouds won`t last much longer. For tonight we will have unlimited ceilings and those mostly clear skies will continue into Wednesday. The low end gusty winds will continue for a couple of more hours before dropping off, much like last night. We will see generally light winds tonight and then the low end gusty winds will return on Wednesday afternoon. It will be another very warm day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90`s or even touching 100, so anyone outside on the gates or ramps should take breaks and stay hydrated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Mainly dry conditions are expected for the rest of today with just a few isolated showers and or thunderstorms across the Hudpseth and Otero counties. Tonight`s recovery will be poor to fair. For Wednesday, dry weather conditions will continue with the min RHs mainly in the single digits. The 20ft winds will be light to low end breezy and temperatures above the normal. Wednesday overnight recovery will be similar to that of tonight`s recovery, but slightly drier. For the rest of the period, quiet weather is expected with very low humidity and breezy afternoon. The temperatures will continue to be above the average through the first half of the weekend. With that being said, fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical through the end of the period. The min RHs on Wednesday will be generally below 10% across much of the area except in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be 10 to 11%. The min RHs on Thursday will continue to be below 10% across much of the area, but will decrease by a percent or two in the Sacramento Mountains. The ventilation rates will be mostly excellent on both days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 93 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 62 97 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 94 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 72 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 60 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 57 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 95 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 93 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 97 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 99 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 65 98 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 94 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 57 94 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 96 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 84 51 84 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 50 83 49 82 / 0 10 0 0 Timberon 50 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 53 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 59 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 90 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 56 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 57 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 57 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice