Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
464 FNUS74 KEPZ 140016 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Antone...USDA Forest Service National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 616 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on June 13. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... An approaching upper level storm system will bring gusty winds and a chance for thunderstorms to the fire site on Friday. RH recoveries will be in the 40`s and min RH`s on Friday will be near 15%. Winds will also be near critical values, so a Red Flag Warning is in effect Friday afternoon. In addition to the critical fire weather conditions, we could see a few thunderstorms develop. Any storms that do develop could produce some dry lightning and some gusty outflow winds. For Saturday we will see much lower rain chances and lighter winds, but still very dry. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of rain showers early in the evening. Chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3 am. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1 until 0300, then 3. Min temperature.....Around 56. Max humidity........45 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest 5 to 8 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (47200 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (4100 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........66 57 52 52 68 Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC NONE NONE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 10 10 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 Temp............74 67 63 60 57 RH..............19 25 31 36 42 20 ft wind......SW 7 W 9 NW 8 NW 8 N 5 20 ft wind gust.15 17 16 16 12 Mix hgt (ft)....1700 400 400 300 300 Transport wind..W 13 NW 18 NW 18 NW 14 NW 14 Haines index....5 4 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..47 5 5 4 4 Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................4. Max temperature.....Around 82. Min humidity........14 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 39 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......11100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 12 mph increasing to south 18 to 27 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17600 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (310900 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........78 78 74 65 65 48 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 50 50 50 LAL.............4 4 4 5 5 5 Temp............56 64 72 77 81 82 RH..............45 38 30 24 19 15 20 ft wind......W 5 W 5 SW 6 S 8 S 8 SW 15 20 ft wind gust.9 9 13 18 18 39 Mix hgt (ft)....1800 1800 7500 7500 11100 11100 Transport wind..N 12 N 12 S 18 S 18 SW 27 SW 27 Haines index....3 4 4 3 5 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..18 18 165 165 311 311 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 52. Max humidity........52 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 16 mph with gusts to around 43 mph early in the evening becoming light. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 16 mph shifting to the east around 9 mph in the late evening and overnight, then shifting to the southeast around 6 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (192600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (1800 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........31 15 4 3 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............79 65 59 54 RH..............14 27 37 46 20 FT wind......W 16G43 NW 3G9 N 2G6 NW 2G3 Mix hgt (ft)....9600 9600 300 300 Transport wind..W 16 W 16 E 9 SE 6 Haines index....6 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..193 193 3 2 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 84. Min humidity........11 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......13900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 9 to 12 mph shifting to the west around 11 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (134400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........2 3 7 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 Temp............52 71 82 RH..............52 25 13 20 FT wind......NW 3G7 NW 4G13 W 5G16 Mix hgt (ft)....4500 10200 13900 Transport wind..S 9 SW 12 W 11 Haines index....4 3 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..40 98 134 Ventrate Cat....FAIR GOOD VYGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY... Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 7 mph. .TUESDAY... Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 7 mph. $$ Forecaster...BRICE Requested by...Rocky Beery Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416112.0/EPZ .DELDT 06/13/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Rocky.beery@usda.gov