920
FXUS64 KEWX 202317
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A 591 dm ridge remains centered over northeastern Mexico and south
Texas early this afternoon. Despite its presence, we`ve managed to
see a few isolated showers pop up once again under broad east-
southeasterly surface flow. These showers are primarily daytime
heating driven and won`t last much beyond the 6 pm hour as loss of
solar heating commences. Highs will once again climb into the mid to
upper 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 103-107 in some spots
today. More of the same can be expected on Saturday with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Showers look less likely Saturday as the high
moves pretty much right over the top of us. Not much else meaningful
to mention in the short term. Muggy and hot conditions are expected
to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Models remain in good to excellent agreement with a longwave trough
in the western U.S. suppressing the upper level ridge over Texas
this coming week. Besides general 500 mb height falls, the lower
levels will change as shortwave troughs passing through the central
and northern U.S. will result in a cold front progressing south, and
progressively weakening, with time. The front will be like shallow
boundary and likely stall just north of our area, but act as a focus
for storms there, with outflow boundaries to increasing low-level
convergence and lift over our area, while a shortwave trough moves
through at mid-week to provide mid and upper level lift.

The sensible weather will be an increase in POPs first in the far
northwest on Sunday evening, then spreading east into the Edwards
Plateau and western Hill Country on Monday, then finally south and
east across the entire area Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening. But don`t get your hopes up too high for rain, as chances
max out around 20-30 percent and rainfall will be spotty and
generally light, with most locations receiving 1/10 inch or less, and
only a lucky few receiving 1/4 inch.

Temperatures will be near normal (upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
and mid 60s to lower 70s for lows) throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) could see a nearby spotty
rain shower or two through about 8 PM CDT, however, flight impacts
are not expected. VFR flight conditions will otherwise continue
through the first half of the night. Low clouds then increase and
MVFR ceilings develop from the late overnight through Saturday
morning. This will primarily impact KSAT, KSSF and KDRT but brief
MVFR ceilings may be possible at KAUS as well. VFR conditions then
return into and through Saturday afternoon. Winds will remain light
to moderate from the east-southeast to south-southeast across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  94  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  96  78  95 /  10   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  94  74  94 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  95  75  94 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  96  75  96 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Zeitler
Aviation...Brady