369
FXUS64 KEWX 210520
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Latest GOES 16 Day Cloud Phase imagery shows numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms embedded within sweeping across South Central
Texas from east to west. Overall flow between the SFC-300mb remains
easterly, and with PWATs in the 2.00"+ realm, expect some brief
heavy downpours in any showers that move through. Overall, expect
cooler than normal temperatures for the first official day of Summer
with highs in the 80s for most.

Any showers and storms should largely move into the Rio Grande
Plains after sunset this evening as daytime heating wanes. On
Friday, the Subtropical Ridge that`s been "baking" the Midwest and
Northeast, will slide further south and west, effectively drying
things out for most areas outside of the Rio Grande Plains.
Continued showers and storms will be possible, but coverage will be
rather sparse. Temperatures should respond as more sunshine breaks
out across the CWA with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Friday,
night, some patchy fog may develop late if we can clear skies out
enough, but more than likely, low clouds will form first as we move
into the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The low level flow over the weekend and early next week will be from
the east through southeast. This will keep a warm, moist airmass in
place. A weak upper ridge will allow for isolated convection driven
by daytime heating each day Saturday through Thursday over the
Coastal Plains. Some days the storms will spread toward the west and
north. Chances will mostly be slight and most places will remain dry
through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the long
term to back above normal by the middle of next week. With dewpoints
in the 70s during the afternoons, heat indices will be above 100 and
we may need some heat advisories next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR CIGs will gradually spread across much of South Central Texas
overnight with SHRA in the VCNTY at KSAT thru 08Z. CIGs mix to SCT
VFR by midday Friday. SCT SHRA/TSRA will develop and have maintained
PROB30s for TSRA at all sites for the afternoon into early evening.
Easterly winds will prevail at 4 to 10 KTs overnight, then gradually
veer to southeasterly on Friday into Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  95  77  98 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  92  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  71  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  91  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  92  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  93  73  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...76
Aviation...04