855
FXUS64 KEWX 191107
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
607 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

- Critical fire weather conditions across all of South-Central Texas into
  this evening

- Gusty to strong northwesterly winds with patchy blowing dust from this
  morning into the afternoon

- Lighter winds and lowered fire weather on Thursday; outside of Val
  Verde County

The Pacific cold front is advancing across the Southern Edwards
Plateau with blowing dust as seen on the GOES nighttime microphysics
and DEBRA-Dust RGB channel. In the advance of the front, southerly
winds supplied a more humid airmass with low stratus establishing
from the southeastern most Hill Country locations through the I-35
corridor and into the coastal plain counties. The front will quickly
advance northwest to southeast through the region by the early to
mid-morning hours. It will quickly wipe out the low stratus as a very
dry airmass arrives immediately in the wake of the front. The dew
point gradient is expected to be rather impressive with a short
distance between values in the 60s and the teens. The winds shift out
of the northwest and become gusty to strong in wake of the front.
The strongest winds will focus across the Edwards Plateau into our
northern Hill Country counties. We have issued a Wind Advisory across
these locations from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT with up to 45 mph gusts.
Blowing dust will also likely continue to move into and across the
region as well. Some visibility reductions will be possible. With the
combination of this very dry airmass and the gusty to strong
northwesterly winds, critical fire weather is expected with a Red
Flag Warning across the entire region. The specifics on the fire
weather can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

Gusty winds will linger through the first half of tonight across
most locations before subsiding after midnight and into early
Thursday as surface high pressure settles in. With clear skies along
with the lighter flow by sunrise, expect a chilly start to Thursday
with the morning lows from the low to mid 30s in the drainage valleys
of the Hill Country to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Thursday will
remain under the influence of the high pressure and this should
result in a pleasant day with complete sunshine. Afternoon highs in
the low to mid 70s will be common across the region with lighter
winds. This lighter flow should reduce the fire weather concerns
despite the remaining very dry airmass. The only exception could be
over portions of Val Verde County where winds shift and increase out
of the southeast. It could result in elevated to near critical fire
weather across that region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

- Above normal temperatures return by Friday.

- Slight chance (20-30%) for showers and storms Sunday evening into Monday
  morning for eastern areas.

A period of prolonged southerly flow will kick off Thursday night.
This will steadily increase moisture across South Central Texas and
put somewhat of a damper on the dry fire weather pattern experienced
thus far while also raising temperatures back to well above average
values. Enough of Thursday`s cooler airmass will stick around to
offer up a cool Friday morning with low temperatures in the 40s
throughout the region, but by Friday afternoon the influence of warm
advection will be felt with highs returning into the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A low-level jet moving across our area should also make for
a breezy day. A shortwave trough with an associated front over the
Midwest has continued to trend farther away from our region, so the
southerly flow looks to remain uninterrupted heading into the
weekend.

Enough accumulated moisture should be in our area for some
cloudiness to return over the weekend, especially by Sunday as dew
points rise above 60F for most areas. Highs in the upper 80s to low
90s will be widespread Saturday and Sunday.

Our attention then turns to a cold front that will likely in our
area sometime Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Should the front
arrive earlier, it may put a slight dent into Sunday afternoon`s
temperatures. There is sufficient upper-level flow behind the front
to push it south across our entire area. Long-range ensemble
clusters depicting even weaker flows still manage to get the front
through, though the front may move slowly or linger in our area
given how distant the associated trough is in the current guidance.
The front will likely encounter a moist and conditionally unstable
airmass across South Central Texas following 3 days of moist return
flow. Peak SBCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are quite widespread
in the latest guidance, which could support some thunderstorms.
However, a key question will be whether the front and synoptic setup
will produce enough lift to initiate shower and thunderstorm
development, which will be influenced by frontal timing and moisture
depth. These uncertainties are still large at this range, so PoPs
Sunday night into Monday morning were held at 20-30% and mainly
limited along and east of the I-35 corridor where areas have a
higher chance of being downwind of the primary areas of moist
convergence.

The slightly cooler post-frontal environment may be short-lived as
southerly flow may return as early as Monday night. While models
diverge on how they handle the front how quickly the front washes
out, there is a general theme in the guidance that a warm and more
humid airmass may prevail throughout much of next week. Highs may
return to the upper 80s for most areas by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

VFR flight conditions mainly prevail through the period. A Pacific
front is advancing across the region. It has pushed any MVFR CIGs
from earlier into the coastal plains and even will quickly move
out from the area shortly. In the wake of the front, a region of
blowing dust from West Texas is leading to a hazy mid-level cloud
deck and some reductions in visibility. KDRT earlier had fell down
into the 2 mile range but is gradually improving. Slight lowering
of visibility will be possible at KAUS and KSAT. The winds start
light at the I-35 sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF), but winds aloft
create wind shear for a period of time until mixing occurs after
sunrise. The northwesterly flow then becomes breezy and gusty with
gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range. Winds have already picked up at
KDRT and speeds will peak stronger here with gusts above 30 kts
possible. Winds will linger until at least midnight along the I-35
corridor before eventually subsiding through the overnight hours.
Otherwise, winds are expected to subside faster at KDRT, after
sunset.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather begins at 5 am CDT
across all of South-Central Texas and remains until 9 pm CDT as
result of a Pacific front bringing a rapidly drying airmass and
gusty to strong northwesterly winds in the front`s wake. The
sustained winds will climb into the 15 to 30 mph range and with
gusts around 30 to 45 mph. The humidity levels will also tank
becoming the single digits across most locations. Winds remain
through the first half of the night before subsiding into the
overnight hours. Humidity levels rise slightly overnight. Winds
remain lighter on Thursday and should help to limit the higher
concerns for fire weather. However, the humidity levels are to
remain very low in the 8 to 15 percent range. Winds look to be
strongest across Val Verde county as they shift southerly. This
results in elevated to near critical fire weather concerns for that
area through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  41  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  40  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             81  38  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        79  41  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           81  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kerr-Llano-Real-Val Verde.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...Brady