517
FXUS64 KEWX 200758
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The upper level flow this morning is zonal to slightly ridging. The
low level flow is from the southeast. Temperatures this morning are
slightly lower than 24 hours ago with less cloud cover over the
region. Cloudy skies are starting to develop and should become
widespread by around sunrise. These clouds will give way to mostly
sunny skies this afternoon and that will lead to very warm
temperatures. Highs will be similar to yesterday mostly in the 90s
and approaching 105 along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will
strengthen today as it shifts toward the east. We will continue to
have dry weather tonight and Tuesday. The low level flow will
continue from the southeast and clouds will get an earlier start
tonight. This will mean lows Tuesday morning will be a few degrees
warmer than today. Skies will become mostly sunny again Tuesday
afternoon and high temperatures will be within a degree or two of
highs today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

By Wednesday the upper level ridge axis will stretch from the
southeast U.S. into the southwest Gulf of Mexico, while a trough digs
through the southwest U.S. and Baja California. This will open the
door for isolated showers and storms in the afternoons and evenings
along and east of the dryline. This could be as early as early
Tuesday evening along the Rio Grande, where a few CAMs are indicating
convective development. But better chances (20-30%) look to come
Wednesday afternoon and evening along the Rio Grande and across the
southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and central Texas, as the
ridge pulls farther away and a weak impulses in the southwest flow
move across. A few storms could become severe Wednesday afternoon and
evening and SPC has placed the Hill Country and northern areas of
the I-35 corridor in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms.

The dryline Thursday and Friday looks to make slightly farther
eastward progression each afternoon, with low (10-20%) chances for
isolated storms in the afternoon and evening confined at this time
to portions of the Hill Country and central Texas. These low chances
for isolated afternoon and evening storms may continue over the
weekend for this region.

Otherwise, continued well above normal temperatures with periods of
hazy conditions east of the dryline. Heat-related impacts are
forecast to increase each day, peaking over the weekend. Very hot
afternoon temperatures of 104 to 110 degrees are forecast over the
weekend closer to the Rio Grande, west of the dryline, with mid 90s
to around 100 degrees east of the dryline. Elevated dew points east
of the dryline, influences from evapotranspiration where better
spring rainfall has occurred, and the early nature of the summer
heat will also spike the heat risk. Those spending extended time
outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be
susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat
precautions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Southeasterly flow in the boundary layer will continue during this
period. MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop tonight first in Austin and
San Antonio and later at DRT. Clouds will dissipate by late morning
with VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening. Southeasterly
winds will be 10 to 15 kts through the period at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  75  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  73  92  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  79 103  80 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  73  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  76  90  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...76
Aviation...05