Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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224 FXUS62 KFFC 040603 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 203 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Region of diffluent flow is parked over the CWA as we are caught at the edge of subtropical ridge to our southwest and deepening ridge to our north. Southerly flow at the surface has allowed for moisture to continue to return to the area with dewpoints rising well into the mid to upper 60s. Airmass storms will be possible through most of the short term period. While there will be some diurnal component to this, with best chances during the afternoon/evening hours each day, moisture quality will remain high enough overnight to allow for continued development, especially with any outflow or weak impulses that move by the area. Given the weak upper level flow, impulses in this sense will likely be vortmax created by MCS systems to the west, of which one is currently ongoing in eastern OK. Severe weather is not expected, but can`t rule out a storm or two going up big enough and collapse hard enough to do a little wind damage. Shear is very low over Georgia and will remain that way through forecast period, generally < 20 kts 0-6km. Mid levels and upper levels are relatively warm but dry, so CAPE values are relatively skinny at ~1000 J/kg and updrafts may struggle with some dry air entrainment. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 At a glance: - Daily rain chances - Return to slightly above average warmth As we enter the extended range on Wednesday, low-amplitude mid-level ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, the Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high, within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A shortwave disturbance and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west will support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection during the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances. The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC`s General Thunder risk for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm. Beyond Wednesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of northwesterly flow that carries through the remainder of the long- term period. As is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end chance PoPs (30-50%) will develop each day. With moist southwesterly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the atmosphere will be primed for efficient rainfall and quick recovery between rounds of convection. Forecast multi-day (Wednesday through Friday) rainfall totals across north and central Georgia currently stand between a tenth and three-quarters of an inch, but these values may be exceeded in areas that experience stronger, longer- lived, or slower-moving storms. For now, it looks like the best chances for more quasi- organized thunderstorms will come overnight Wednesday into Thursday, aided by a pre-frontal trough. Even so, any weak disturbances traversing our mid-level flow could serve as a catalyst to nudge any discrete cells into more long-lived clusters that persist beyond the loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC, and corroborated by taking a dive into ensemble guidance, predictability is too low at this range to pin down any clear signals for widespread severe weather. The most probable outcome appears to be an isolated strong to marginally severe storm (typical as we move into a more summertime pattern driven by instability as opposed to wind shear) capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and nuisance flooding if storm motions are slow. Rain and storm chances then look to taper off for a majority of the weekend as a drier airmass settles in in the wake of a cold frontal passage. However, chances for isolated airmass/diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorms will return Sunday into Monday. Highs will be in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day, with lows in the 60s to lower-70s. 96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The threat of low cigs around daybreak this morning has lessened, although IFR cigs remain possible N and W of the Atlanta metro area and around AHN. There are better chances for thunderstorms today, particularly at northern terminals (Atlanta metro and AHN). Mid-level dry air is expected to exit the area, with fairly moist profiles today. A couple of weak shortwaves are forecast to move across the area during the afternoon and evening hour, possibly organizing convection into broken N/S oriented lines. MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible in showers and storms. Winds are expected to be light outside of storms. Wind directions at ATL will be mostly out of the SSW during the day, possibly shifting to SSE during the evening. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on morning low cigs (or lack thereof) and timing of afternoon and evening convection, high on all other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 86 68 88 / 60 70 60 40 Atlanta 69 87 71 87 / 60 60 60 40 Blairsville 63 79 64 82 / 70 90 70 30 Cartersville 67 87 68 87 / 60 70 70 40 Columbus 69 90 71 89 / 50 40 50 60 Gainesville 67 84 69 87 / 60 80 60 40 Macon 69 89 71 89 / 60 50 50 60 Rome 68 86 69 89 / 60 80 70 30 Peachtree City 67 88 69 87 / 60 50 60 40 Vidalia 70 91 72 89 / 50 60 40 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....96 AVIATION...SEC